UCI Rankings Explained

Posted on October 24, 2012 by

Photo by Luc Claessen | ispaphoto.be

Lost somewhere in the shuffle between the continued fallout from the USADA report on Lance Armstrong and the presentation of the 2013 Tour de France route was the release of the UCI Cyclocross Classification (aka UCI Rankings). The rankings are updated each week following a World Cup race. So, with the first World Cup race (Tabor) occurring this past Sunday, the UCI released the first rankings of the 2012/13 season. While many may have expected to see the likes of Sven Nys, Jeremy Powers, or Niels Albert at the top, rule 5.2.003 (enacted in 2011) continues to catch many by surprise. Here’s a refresher on how things currently work and what that means.

The UCI offers six categories of racing with different points structures. They start with the UCI World Championships (CM), which offer the most points and go the deepest. That’s followed by World Cup events (CDM), Continental Championships (CC), National Championships (CN), Class 1 (C1) and Class 2 (C2) events. Since World, continental and national championships only occur once a season, riders gain the bulk of their points from World Cup, C1 and C2 races. Here’s a little table to show you the drastic difference in the points that these races offer:

C2 C1 CDM
Place Points Place Points Place Points
1 40 1 80 1 200
2 30 2 60 2 160
3 20 3 40 3 140
4 15 4 30 4 120
5 10 5 25 5 110
6 8 6 20 6 100
7 6 7 17 7 90
8 4 8 15 8 80
9 2 9 12 9 70
10 1 10 10 10 60
11 8 11 58
12 6 12 56
13 4 13 54
14 2 14 52
15 1 15 50
16 48
17 46
18 44
19 42
20 40
21 39
22 38
23 37
24 36
25 35
26 34
27 33
28 32
29 31
30 30
31 29
32 28
33 27
34 26
35 25
36 24
37 23
38 22
39 21
40 20
41 19
42 18
43 17
44 16
45 15
46 14
47 13
48 12
49 11
50 10
51 5*

*any rider finishing beyond 5oth gets 5 points

As you can see, the points get larger and go deeper in the higher ranked races. Therefore, a rider who simply finishes a World Cup race gets more points than a rider who finished 8th in a C2 race and/or 13th in a C1 race.

Of course, the UCI makes things even more complicated. According to rule 5.2.006 the number of points a rider can be awarded per race category is limited. For C1 events the best 6 results of each rider is used and for C2 events, the best 5 results are used. World Cup results are not capped. So, your C2 points will max out at 200, C1 at 480, but your World Cup points would max out at 1600 (8 wins). As you can see, for riders such as Jeremy Powers and Sven Nys, their C2 points max out really quickly and often times their C1 points do as well.

Finally, we circle back to rule 5.2.003 which uses a calendar year to calculate the rankings. So, rather than using only the points accrued in this season in its initial rankings, the UCI uses the points from October 23, 2011 (the second World Cup race last season) to October 21, 2012 (the first World Cup of this season). That means that if a rider like Sven Nys won 5 C2 races last winter, his C2 points for this year are currently maxed out. This is where things get complicated, so here are three real life examples:

Kevin Pauwels’ 2012 Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 1 200 CDM
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 2 30 C2
07 Oct 2012 Superprestige #1 – Ruddervoorde 3 40 C1
30 Sep 2012 Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin 6 20 C1
29 Sep 2012 Fidea GP Neerpelt 5 10 C2
Total 300

Sven Nys’ 2012 Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 5 110 CDM
18 Oct 2012 Kermiscross 2 30 C2
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 3 20 C2
07 Oct 2012 Superprestige #1 – Ruddervoorde 1 80 C1
30 Sep 2012 Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin 1 80 C1
29 Sep 2012 Fidea GP Neerpelt 1 40 C2
16 Sep 2012 Süpercross Baden 11 8 C1
Total 368

Jeremy Powers’ 2012 Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 7 90 CDM
15 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #4 – New Belgium Cup 1 40 C2
14 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #3 – New Belgium Cup 1 80 C1
07 Oct 2012 NEPCX #4 – Providence Cyclo-cross Festival 5 10 C2
06 Oct 2012 NEPCX #3 – Providence Cyclo-cross Festival 1 80 C1
30 Sep 2012 NEPCX #2 – Gran Prix of Gloucester 2 30 C2
29 Sep 2012 NEPCX #1 – Gran Prix of Gloucester 1 80 C1
24 Sep 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #2 – Planet Bike Cup 3 20 C2
23 Sep 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #1 – Planet Bike Cup 1 80 C1
20 Sep 2012 Cross After Dark Series #1 – CrossVegas 1 80 C1
15 Sep 2012 Nittany Lion Cross 1 40 C2
Total 630

So, if we went back to the pre 2011/2012 rules, where only this season’s results counted towards the rankings, Powers would be the number one ranked rider. However, using a calendar year, things look drastically different:

Kevin Pauwels’ Results:

Date Race Result Points Class
29 Jan 2012 Championnats du Monde / World Championships 3 320 CM
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 1 200 CDM
22 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #8 – Hoogerheide 1 200 CDM
26 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #6 – Heusden-Zolder 1 200 CDM
04 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #4 – Igorre 1 200 CDM
23 Oct 2011 UCI World Cup #2 – Tabor 1 200 CDM
15 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #7 РLi̩vin 2 160 CDM
26 Nov 2011 UCI World Cup #3 – Koksijde 2 160 CDM
18 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #5 – Namur 4 120 CDM
12 Feb 2012 GP Heuts 1 80 C1
20 Nov 2011 Superprestige #4 – Gavere 1 80 C1
01 Nov 2011 GvA-Trofee #1 – Koppenbergcross 1 80 C1
05 Feb 2012 Superprestige #7 – Hoogstraten 2 60 C1
01 Jan 2012 GvA-Trofee #6 – G.P. Sven Nys 2 60 C1
23 Dec 2011 Superprestige #6 – Diegem 2 60 C1
09 Jan 2012 Cyclocross Otegem 1 40 C2
19 Nov 2011 GvA-Trofee #3 – GP Hasselt 1 40 C2
06 Nov 2011 GvA-Trofee #2 – Ronse 1 40 C2
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 2 30 C2
01 Feb 2012 Augustijn Parkcross Maldegem 2 30 C2
08 Jan 2012 Championnat National de Belgique 10 3 CN

Sven Nys’ Results:

Date Event Result Points Class
18 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #5 – Namur 1 200 CDM
26 Nov 2011 UCI World Cup #3 – Koksijde 1 200 CDM
29 Jan 2012 Championnats du Monde / World Championships 7 190 CM
04 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #4 – Igorre 2 160 CDM
26 Dec 2011 UCI World Cup #6 – Heusden-Zolder 3 140 CDM
15 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #7 РLi̩vin 4 120 CDM
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 5 110 CDM
23 Oct 2011 UCI World Cup #2 – Tabor 5 110 CDM
22 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #8 – Hoogerheide 6 100 CDM
08 Jan 2012 Championnat National de Belgique 1 100 CN
30 Sep 2012 Vlaamse Industrieprijs Bosduin 1 80 C1
18 Feb 2012 Cauberg Cyclo-cross 1 80 C1
01 Jan 2012 GvA-Trofee #6 – G.P. Sven Nys 1 80 C1
30 Dec 2011 Fidea Cyclo-cross Leuven 1 80 C1
11 Dec 2011 Vlaamse Druivenveldrit 1 80 C1
10 Dec 2011 Scheldecross 1 80 C1
29 Sep 2012 Fidea GP Neerpelt 1 40 C2
12 Feb 2012 G.P. Stad Eeklo 1 40 C2
11 Nov 2011 Fidea Jaarmarktcross Niel 1 40 C2
18 Oct 2012 Kermiscross 2 30 C2
14 Oct 2012 bpost bank trofee #1 – Ronse 3 20 C2

Jeremy Powers’ Results:

Date Event Results Points Class
08 Jan 2012 Championnat National des USA 1 100 CN
21 Oct 2012 UCI World Cup #1 – Tabor 7 90 CDM
14 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #3 – New Belgium Cup 1 80 C1
29 Sep 2012 NEPCX #1 – Gran Prix of Gloucester 1 80 C1
23 Sep 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #1 – Planet Bike Cup 1 80 C1
11 Dec 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #7 – Deschutes Brewery Cup 1 80 C1
12 Nov 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #5 – Derby City Cup 1 80 C1
06 Nov 2011 Harbin Park International 1 80 C1
15 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #7 РLi̩vin 14 52 CDM
23 Oct 2011 UCI World Cup #2 – Tabor 15 50 CDM
29 Jan 2012 Championnats du Monde / World Championships 26 42 CM
15 Oct 2012 USGP of Cyclocross #4 – New Belgium Cup 1 40 C2
15 Sep 2012 Nittany Lion Cross 1 40 C2
12 Dec 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #8 – Deschutes Brewery Cup 1 40 C2
13 Nov 2011 USGP of Cyclocross #6 – Derby City Cup 1 40 C2
04 Nov 2011 Darkhorse Cyclo-Stampede International CX 1 40 C2
22 Jan 2012 UCI World Cup #8 – Hoogerheide 29 31 CDM
26 Nov 2011 UCI World Cup #3 – Koksijde 32 28 CDM

As a result Pauwels currently has 2,363 points, Nys has 2,080 and Powers has 1,073. This means Pauwels is first, Nys second and Powers 10th. Even more interesting, Zdenek Stybar, who isn’t racing this season, is third in the rankings.

You’ll also notice that some of this year’s results are missing from our table. That’s because these riders have maxed out their points in 2011/2012, and their 2012 results will not count until the calendar year cycles through.

Hopefully that helps clear up and explain the complicated points system the UCI uses to rank cross riders, which also determines their start order. If the old system was in place, Powers would be the first rider in the grid, for now he’s stuck in the second row (the grid is 8 riders wide) and has to continue to get results in C1 and World Cup races to move up.

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Turkey for Me, Turkey for You…

Posted on April 20, 2009 by

I’m still reeling from the video of yesterday’s final stage of the Tour of Turkey. What a way to bring the sport to new audiences! I hope ESPN includes it in this week’s “Plays of the Week”. Maybe they can create a montage combining this footage with pictures of Tyler Hamilton winning Gold in Athens and Michael Ball firing riders to cut costs. (Don’t you hate it when a pet needs more care than you thought it did? “But Mommy, he looked soooo cute in the window.”)

And we complain when our sport isn’t taken seriously.

While we’re at it, let’s take a minute to honor another example of field sprint shenanigans, this time courtesy of Sir Tom Steels. (And note the highlight at the end announcing Abdu’s positive test. A nice touch!)

But back to Turkey, Theo Bos (the Rabobank rider) says it wasn’t deliberate. I can’t see how we are to believe him. There’s a difference between a tap on the thigh to let a rider know you’re there and grabbing a jersey and pulling it across your front wheel. Daryl Impey (Barloworld) fractured a vertabra and lost a tooth in the fall; but hey, Robbie McEwan’s willing to vouch for Bos, so maybe I should reconsider my stance. (Yes, that’s sarcasm.)

Speaking of dopes, read “The Dope Show” at The Service Course. Ryan continues to astound me with his wit and writing style. This post is a classic to be read and shared by all.

Do you know the Boulder resident of which he speaks? I think I do.

More things to consider:

1. Rule #1 when picking race winners: always go with your first instinct. It’s lip service now, but when looking over the Start List prior to Amstel, Ivanov’s named jumped out at me. Alas, I talked myself out of including him. Next time, when my gut tells me something, I’ll listen. (Unless it might result in me breaking someone’s back and teeth.)

2. If you haven’t been paying attention, Jeremy over at the Embrocation blog was in Belgium and France for the cobbled classics. He’s been posting terrific photos and videos from his travels. Click here for a brief but exciting video from the caravan at Roubaix. (Brings back memories for me. Remind me to tell you the story sometime of the Italian DS who threatened to run me off the road during a stage in Malaysia in 2001.)

3. Jeremy also took part in Rouleur‘s latest version of The Crazy Bet. The goal: to ride the entire courses of Flanders, Ghent, and Roubaix the day before each classic. They failed on Day 1, but the stories are still worth a look. My favorite is here, and details their experiences over the last 90km or so of Roubaix with Katusha.

4. Battenkill was this past weekend. I’ll give something–once we have Pavé logos on something–to the first person to provide us with a Pavé-exclusive 1st-person account and photos. Here’s an example.

5. And if you’re in the Mid-Atlantic, be sure to head over to Ridelugged and check out the Spring Opener. It’s certain to be a great day!

Enjoy your week!

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Tuesday Musette – Giro, Dunkirk, and the NFL

Posted on May 10, 2011 by

Pavé would like to thank Laekhouse for supporting our coverage of the 2011 Giro d’Italia.

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

Here’s what was on our minds prior to yesterday’s tragedy at the Giro d’Italia:

1. The Giro opened Saturday with HTC-High Road winning the 19.3 team time trial in Torino. As expected, Marco Pinotti was the recipient of the race’s first maglia rosa, an emotional moment that obviously meant a lot to the Italian National ITT Champion.

Of the main contenders for the overall victory, Vicenzo Nibali’s Liquigas team had the best day, finishing third and giving Nibali an early edge on his rivals. While time gaps were small to men such as Lampre’s Michele Scarponi (2-seconds) and Saxo Bank’s Alberto Contador (8-seconds), other men such as Geox-TMC’s Denis Menchov and Carlos Sastre, Katusha’s Joaquin Rodriguez, and Euskaltel’s Igor Anton all lost over 30-seconds. While not insurmountable, every little bit helps.

2. Speaking of Anton, he’s now claiming that he’s not in Italy to make a run for the GC. Which in my book, all but proves that he is.

3. And speaking of every little bit helps—or hurts—Carlos Sastre lost another 53-seconds to the rest of the overall favorites yesterday. While harmful to the Spaniard’s overall prospects, a bit more of a gap might help his chances to take a stage win or two.

4. As for Sunday’s second stage, Alessandro Petacchi has apparently discovered the fountain of youth, winning both the stage and the points jersey. Right now, Petacchi seems to be the only rider in the world not especially intimidated by HTC’s Mark Cavendish (Sunday’s recipient of the pink jersey after placing second to Petacchi in the field sprint).  A mind game more than anything else, winning field sprints is one area where a mental edge can make more of difference than just about anything else. And while I have no doubt Cavendish will win his share of stages, Petacchi’s clearly his top challenger.

5. In Dunkirk, Thomas Voeckler is probably the best cyclist that nobody talks about. With an aggressive ride to win Stage 4 of the French HC event, Voeckler took over the pink jersey as race leader and defended it Sunday to earn his eighth win of the season—one more than Philippe Gilbert.

The current leader of the UCI’s Europe Tour, the French Champion seems to have an affinity for collecting jerseys—a trend he’ll look to continue in France this summer. His run makes even more glaring the fact that his Europcar team was omitted from the Ardennes Classics—one has to wonder if he would have had the legs to challenge Gilbert’s supremacy. (I doubt it, but it would have been fun to see anyway.)

6. As for Skil-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, the young German won every stage of the 5-day event—except for the one that mattered. Regardless, 4 out of 5 stages is an impressive haul for any 22-year-old. I wonder how long before he signs with HTC.

7. And now for a topic we tend to avoid here at Pavé—not because we’re blind to it, but simply because it’s so heavily covered by everyone else. The National [American] Football League (NFL), in a new attempt to try and break the bargaining stalemate that threatens to jeopardize the 2011 season, is now rumored to be contemplating handing over the testing of its athletes to WADA. Go figure.

Personally, I have long been frustrated by the glaring hypocrisy of most American sports fans’ attitudes regarding doping. In the USA, a football player is a hero for getting a shot of cortisone at halftime and returning to lead his team to victory in the second half, while a cyclist is a dirty cheater for using the wrong kind of antiseptic gel and testing positive. I’m not saying that cyclists deserve to be idolized when they cheat, but I do feel that all drug testing in all sports need to be treated the same.

I’ll be watching this situation closely. Should it go through, Major League Baseball might be next—the testing of minor leaguers is up to the league office, but in the major leagues, testing has to be bargained.

And then there’s FIFA. I’m not touching that with a ten-meter pole.

8. Last, but not least, if you have the time and the money to spare, here’s a unique opportunity to get an intimate, behind-the-scenes look at the life of an aspiring professional team. It’s an interesting concept—let us know if you decide to check it out.

Enjoy the rest of your week—share your comments below.

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Transfer Period Opens – Win, Lose, or Draw

Posted on September 2, 2009 by

I’m no Burt Reynolds or Dom DeLuise, but I know a good game of Win, Lose, or Draw when I see one. Yesterday gave us our first chance to sketch-out some team rosters for 2010. So, let’s pick-up a marker and head to the easel:

First, the Winners:
1. BMC has to be considered the major winner of the 2009 transfer season having assembled a top-notch Classics squad. Alessandro Ballan brings talent and panache along with his palmares; Marcus Burghart is a man for the future (who’s already happened to have won several races). George Hincapie comes to provide the experience necessary to guide the rest to victory year-round. Look for Ballan to make the push for Flanders, Burghart for Ghent-Wevelgem, and Hincapie for Roubaix. And don’t forget Karsten Kroon—he’s no slouch either and could bring the team another win a week after Roubaix at the Amstel Gold Race. Overall, it was a pretty impressive haul for Jim Ochowicz and John Lelangue. Now they must hope for the invitations they need to get their riders in the best races. With this roster, it shouldn’t be a problem.

2. The next winner is Liquigas, who won simply by staying put. They announced that the bulk of their roster is staying-put, including wunderkinds Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger. Even Ivan Basso returns for another year in the green and blue, perhaps spurning an offer to ride with Lance at Radio Shack? Kuchynski and Quinziato remain for the Classics, along with talented domestiques like Willems and Vandborg. And don’t forget Franco Pellisotti, he’ll be back as well. Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made, I guess.

And now, the Losers:
1. Lampre should be chided for letting Ballan go. For an Italian team, losing homegrown talent has to be considered a disappointment. His replacement? Alessandro Petacchi. Sure, he’ll bring stage wins in the Giro, but he’s getting older, is no stranger to scandal, and he was probably overpaid. What’s Saronni thinking?

2. It was inevitable; Columbia-HTC had to start losing sometime. With so much talent, choices had to be made. Right now, Burghart, Hincapie, and Kirchen are the biggest names to depart, but Edvald Boassen Hagen and Thomas Lokvist are likely to leave as well. Columbia’s re-stocked a bit, signing young talent from around the world as well as up-and-comers like Martin and Peter Velits. But the riders they lose will leave a mark in the win column for sure, especially Hincapie, whose guidance and veteran leadership will be missed in the Classics and the Tour.

These teams get a Draw:
1. Team Sky certainly wants to make a splash, choosing to wait a week or so to announce it’s full roster—maybe to finalize a few more names, perhaps to ensure the spotlight’s all their own. Rumors are swirling as to whom they’ll sign, with Boassen Hagen and Simon Gerrans topping the list. Whenever it happens, it will be exciting to see the final shape of the UK’s first Pro Tour team. Until that time though, judgment must be reserved.

2. Garmin made some noise, signing young talent and some classics help in the form of Johan Vansummeren. That said, I was hoping for more. They need a rider with the talent and experience necessary to help the younger guys start to win bigger races. Vansummeren might bring that, but it’s hard to tell given the role he played at Silence-Lotto. For now they get a draw, but if they don’t start contending in the Monuments soon or hit the podium at the Tour, it could turn-out to be a loss.

3. Radio Shack made a splash from the Tour to now, but let’s look at their signings objectively. Clearly, this is a team for Lance. He’s surrounded himself with dedicated riders willing to sacrifice their own aspirations for his sake. But honestly, does Lance have the legs left to match his ambition? I think not. Radio Shack will come to the Tour fully loaded, but if Lance can’t hang with the other favorites, which rider will pick-up the mantle? Levi? Popo? And what about the Classics? Yes, Geert Steegmans is a talented rider and well-suited to the Northern races, but he’s very inconsistent and has never shown the ability to deliver as a protected rider. So for now, The Shack gets a draw, but like Slipstream, time will tell the true merits of its acquisitions.

Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet September 1st.

What about you? Which teams did I miss? Share your thoughts below.

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Tour of Turkey Stage 8 – Yellow Jersey Mayhem!

Posted on April 19, 2009 by

This just in from the Tour of Turkey. Absolute mayhem! Fast forward to about 3:35 and watch as a Rabobank rider grabs the Barloworld rider wearing the yellow jersey and literally throws him into the barriers.

I’m sure we’ll be hearing more about this as more details arrive, but for now watch and be amazed. When will our sport cease to fill the mainstream media with more examples of its stupidity?

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Tour of Lombardy – Preview – "Five Leaves Left"

Posted on October 16, 2009 by

The “race of the falling leaves” is named for its calendar placement, but it’s also a race when many of the peloton’s leaves have fallen from the tree as well. With so many riders having ended their seasons, the list of contenders for this weekend’s Tour of Lombardy is relatively short. It’s a shame though; the race takes place in the region around Lake Como—one of Italy’s most beautiful—and features several daunting, yet scenic climbs. (One can only wonder what the race would be like if it had an April start list.) Even though the potential for a dark horse victory exists, let’s take a look at the “Five Leaves Left” to contend for victory in Sunday’s final Monument.

1. Damiano Cunego was relatively quiet following his less-than-stellar showing at Worlds in Mendrisio. He took 14th and 9th last weekend at Emilia and Beghelli though, and it looks like he’s been riding within himself, measuring his efforts to save his last bit of September fitness. A 3-time winner here, Cunego certainly has a team capable of getting him where he needs to be for his fourth. His only obstacle comes in the form of Silence-Lotto’s Gilbert-Evans duo. If he can capitalize on the possible tension between the two (they both stated a desire to win), and use his teammate Ballan to his advantage, look for him to move one win closer to tying Fausto Coppi’s record of 5.

2. Philippe Gilbert put his stamp on the fall with an authoritative win in last Sunday’s Paris-Tours. Then he won the Giro del Piemonte, declaring that he’s in the best form of his life. Frankly, it’s hard to argue with him. On Sunday, Gilbert’s biggest asset might just be his teammate, Cadel Evans (if they decide to work together to exploit their numerical advantage). I give the slight edge to Gilbert in one area over the other favorites: if he arrives in a small group, he’s easily the strongest and most savvy sprinter. Should he come through for Belgium, it will cap an impressive late-season run, making him an early favorite for next year’s Spring Classics. When its all said and done, Gilbert could prove to be the most complete Classics rider since Michele Bartoli.

3. I’m starting to wonder if Cadel Evans’ form from the Vuelta and Worlds is starting to wane. He could be saving himself for Saturday, but I can’t help but think he’s a tad below his teammate Gilbert. Regardless, he’s dangerous enough that should he find himself at the front inside the last 50km, he’ll have to be taken seriously. It might be the best thing for Gilbert, having a teammate dangerous enough to make other teams chase could give him a safe ride into the finale. Or Gilbert’s presence could give Evans carte blanche to win his first race in the rainbow jersey.

4. Robert Gesink won a little vindication by winning the Giro dell’Emilia two weeks ago. It was a terrific win in an underrated semi-classic. But after a season of ups and downs (literally), Gesink would love to end with his first big win. His team is certainly up to the challenge, stocked with riders able to place him well for the attacks to come late in the race. His greatest challenge will be overcoming the difficult descents Lombardy’s known for. Often more strategic than the climbs that precede them, Gesink will need to tackle these “downs” with confidence in order to stay in contact with men like Cunego and Gilbert. When it matters, he might not be taken seriously—something he can hopefully exploit. If he becomes the first winner since Hennie Kuiper won’t Michael Boogerd be jealous?

5. Samuel Sanchez is the last of my top favorites for Lombardy. He was present in the finale of Paris-Tours, but couldn’t deliver the goods when it counted. He too might be losing his form following the Vuelta and Worlds, but he’s certainly capable of one last gasp before calling it a season. He’ll need to let the other favorites’ teams do the lion’s share of the work, following wheels and attacks until the final selection has been made.

Granted, there are several riders capable of spoiling the party—Alessandro Ballan, Ivan Basso, and Filippo Pozzato (if he starts)—come to mind, but they just don’t seem on par with the five already mentioned.

And my pick? While I’ll be rooting for Gilbert, I have a feeling Cunego will do just enough to take his 4th win. If he does, expect to see a pink moon over Italy tomorrow night.

Thanks for reading—please share your thoughts below.

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