Radio Silence Part Three: The Late Attack

Tour de France 2010 - Alexandre Vinokourov

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Radio Silence (Part One, Part Two) is our series about riders who we think may thrive under the effects of the UCI’s radio ban. Our most recent installment, Part Two, posited the theory that without radios, the peloton is bound to mis-judge the effort that it will take to reel in a long breakaway. So many races see breakaways caught in the closing kilometers. Without constant interaction with their directors, what happens if a chasing team puts one less rider on the front than it should have? Or starts riding a few minutes too late? The breakaway just might stick.

If the peloton can just miss catching a break due to a lack of radios, could the opposite happen as well? Could the peloton reel in breakaway too soon? Without the need to chase down a break, could the peloton become complacent, giving a crafty rider the opportunity to sneak away? Lacking radios to pull their team to the front, could chaos reign in the closing kilometers of a race?

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Lars Boom is still developing as a road rider, possibly on the verge of a big win, and perhaps still figuring out what it takes to succeed in the pro peloton. The 2008 Cyclocross World Champion races some road stages as if they’re ‘cross races – attacking hard late in the race, pulling out a 10- or 15-second advantage in the hopes that it will stick to the finish line. He tried in stage 4 of 2010’s Tour of California, attempting to drop his break companions only to be swallowed up by a well-timed peloton with 8k to go. He’s yet to convert this aggression to a major win but we think it’s only a matter of time.

Alexander Vinokourov. A polarizing figure in the peloton, to say the least. For a few years in the early-to-mid 00’s, he made some less than exciting races interesting – his 2005 attack in the last stage of the Tour de France gave an interesting twist finish to a less-than-competitive Tour that saw Armstrong win the overall by over 4 minutes. Attacking from 1.5km, Vinokourov bridged to and then dropped Bradley McGee and Fabian Cancellara, taking the win on the Champs-Élysées, and catapulting himself in to 5th place overall. A few years off left some wondering how he’d perform upon his return, only to see him in classic form during Liege-Bastogne-Liege, where he dropped breakaway companion Alexandr Kolobnev in the final 500m to take the win.

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Alessandro Ballan. The 2008 World Champion has been quiet for a few years. In 2007 and 2008 he garnered high placings in 3 Days of De Panne, two Rondes, Paris-Roubaix, and, of course, the World Championship Road Race, which he won with a stunningly effective attack in the closing two kilometers. In 2009 he suffered a major setback with a case of cytomegalovirus, but finally, in 2011, he looks to have regained some of his old form – taking second in the Strade Bianche, stringing out the field for Cadel Evans on his way to a stage win and GC win at Tirreno-Adriatico.

Ballan is an attacker. He was the first to respond to Alexandre Vinokourov’s stage-winning attack on Stage 13 of the Tour de France last year, but couldn’t hold the pace. This year, with his form coming around, look for him at the front of races in the coming month, and to snag a Grand Tour stage win or two.

In closing, this is, of course, all speculation. We don’t know what the effects of the radio-ban racing will be. Given that the ban has been implemented for non-World Tour and Historic Calendar races this year, we hope that the pro-radio camp is wrong, and that races will be sufficiently safe without radios; we also hope that the anti-radio camp is wrong, and believe that racing can be exciting with or without radios – 2011’s editions of Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico and Milan-San Remo have been phenomenal, even though they were run with radios. Will there be any way to definitively determine if radio-free racing is more or less exciting? Probably not – but we look forward to an exciting season regardless./p>

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2011 Dwars door Vlaanderen – Preview

Photo by Luc Claessen/ISPA Photo

 

Since it occurs the Wednesday between Milan-San Remo and the E3 Prijs/Ghent-Wevelgem, Dwars door Vlaanderen is usually a race won by lieutenants, up-and-coming classics riders, and every once in a while, a sprinter. But don’t let that fool you into thinking the 203-kilometer trip from Roeselar to Waregem is an easy day in the saddle—with 13 climbs and several cobbled sectors, it certainly is not.

That said, while an important warm-up, Dwars door Vlaanderen is not typically predictor of success in the Tour of Flanders—the last Dwars winner to find success ten days later was Johan Museeuw in 1993.

So while Boonen, Cancellara, Devolder, Flecha, Haussler, Leukemans, Pozzato, and Van Avermaet are all racing, I expect we’ll see them saving themselves for the weekend.

As for the rest, here’s a rundown of the teams and riders with hopes for Wednesday—along with my usual predictions:

1. Rabobank fell flat in Saturday’s Milan-San Remo, with both Oscar Freire and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad-winner Sebastian Langeveld falling victim to crashes. In Dwars, look for Lars Boom to try his chances in a breakaway, with Maarten Wijnants possibly playing a role as well.

2. Vacansoleil-DCM brings a packed roster to Roeselare, minus the exciting Thomas de Gendt—a rider I would have tipped for the win had he taken the start. While Stijn Devolder and Bjorn Leukemans will bide their time for the weekend, look for Lieuwe Westra and Marco Marcato to try theirs hands in a break while Borut Bozic waits for a sprint.

3. As one of Belgium’s top two teams, Quick-Step brings its full complement to Dwars door Vlaanderen including Tom Boonen, Sylvain Chavanel, and Kevin Van Impe—winners of this event from 2007 through 2009. Chavanel and new-recruit Niki Terpstra are the team’s best chances from a breakaway while Geert Steegmans will look to build upon his sprint win in last week’s Nokere Koerse.

4. Belgium’s other major team, Omega Pharma-Lotto, leaves Philippe Gilbert at home Wednesday—a smart choice considering the rider’s impressive early-season program. Instead, the team will rely on Andre Greipel and Jurgen Roelandts to bring the squad its first win on home soil this season. And watch out for Adam Bylthe and Marcel Sieberg, two riders capable of an upset.

5. Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato has said he has no interest in winning Wednesday—he’s riding just to reacquaint himself with many of the bergs and cobbles he’ll see between this weekend and the next. In his place, Leif Hoste and Sergei Ivanov will fly the flag for Katusha.

6. As for Leopard Trek, Fabian Cancellara takes the start, but don’t expect to see him burying himself to take the win. But Domink Klemme, Stuart O’Grady, and Joost Posthuma, are possible breakaway candidates for the squad, while Robert Wagner and Wouter Weylandt will wait for the field sprint.

7. Ag2r brings Lloyd Mondory, Anthony Ravard, and Sebastian Hinault to Dwars this year—all bear watching as the race unfolds with Mondory the team’s best sprint candidate.

8. Poggio-animator Greg Van Avermaet will hope to make it stick this time for BMC—unless he’s looking ahead to the weekend. Should he treat Wednesday as training then Manuel Quinziato will be the team’s best chance for victory.

9. HTC-High Road brings a relative B-squad to Dwars door Vlaanderen following Matthew Goss’ impressive win Saturday in Milan-San Remo. Germany’s John Degenkolb is a possible contender—he rode well in the Omloop and won a stage in the Driedaggse van West Vlaanderen; the climate and terrain clearly suit him.

10. Saxo Bank is a shadow of its former classics self following the exodus of many of it’s stars. Baden Cooke won this race in 2002 however, and Nick Nuyens might just try his best to take whatever he can get—even if it means risking his chances for a bigger win over the weekend.

11. Team Sky dominated the Belgian Opening Weekend with a second-place in the Omloop for Juan Antonio Flecha and a win Sunday in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne with Chris Sutton. They bring almost an identical team to Dwars, with Flecha likely resting for the weekend’s bigger events.  In his place, Kurt-Asle Arvesen and Jeremy Hunt are two veterans with several years of experience on these roads, while Matthew Hayman and Chris Sutton will be called upon in the event of a sprint.

12. Garmin-Cervélo takes the line in Roeselare as one of the race’s deeper teams with both Heinrich Haussler and Tyler Farrar. Will they try to take the win following Saturday’s disappointing Milan-San Remo? Or will they bide their time, waiting for the weekend before showing themselves at the front? Roger Hammond and Andreas Klier might be better options, while I’ll be rooting for Johan Vansummeren.

13. Francaise des Jeux was one of the more aggressive teams at Saturday’s Milan San-Remo as both Yoann Offredo and Steve Chainel tried their hands in a breakaway between the Cipressa and Poggio. Both riders take the start here, and must be considered contenders for the win—if they’ve recovered from the weekend’s efforts. Anthony Geslin, William Bonnet, and Dominique Rollin are good candidates to emulate their teammates’ MSR exploits.

14. And last but not least, one can never leave An Post’s Belgian stalwart Niko Eeckhout off the list of contenders for Dwars door Vlaanderen, a race he won in 2001 and 2005.

My Prediction: I see this year’s race closely resembling last year’s: a talented lieutenant will finally break through for his first important win—and he’ll do it while wearing the jersey of his country’s national champion. Take a bow, Niki Terpstra! His former breakaway companions—Lieuwe Westra and Dominik Klemme—will round-out the podium, while Tyler Farrar will take the sprint over Greipel and Degenkolb.

Dwars door Vlaanderen: 1. Terpstra; 2. Westra; 3. Klemme

Share your picks below.

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The Sticky Bidon – March 21, 2011

2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - F. Cancellara

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, March 21, 2011

Seen any cool links we missed? Share ’em in the comments below!

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Monday Musette: Milan-San Remo Wrap-Up

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

On Saturday morning, were you glued to your computer monitor, watching Milan San-Remo and blowing off your family, brunch plans with friends, or group ride? If so, you were privy to what might have been the most exciting race of the season thus far, and possibly the most exciting Milan-San Remo in a long time. If you disagree or if you found this year’s Milan-San Remo lacking or unexciting, make your case here. We’ll try not to scold you (just kidding–well, maybe).

Today’s Monday Musette takes a look at Saturday’s 102nd running of La Primavera. Though there’s something distasteful about the outcome of a race being affected heavily by crashes, those that caused the splitting of the peloton into two groups before La Manie created an exciting and richly tactical race as teams were forced to assess their positions in front and behind.

1. Matt Goss deserves some huge kudos for a very impressive win. We listed him as a 4-stone favorite but had our doubts – would Paris-Nice, with its shorter stages and earlier finish, be appropriate preparation for Milan-San Remo’s 298-kilometers compared to Tirreno-Adriatico’s multiple 240-kilometer stages?

2. It’s hard to argue that Milan-San Remo does anything but favor sprinters, but to use Goss’s victory as evidence that only sprinters can win in San Remo is flawed – arriving in a small group of 8 after an aggressive attack-riddled ascent of the Poggio proves the flawed logic of pigeonholing Goss as a “sprinter.” If you’re following Fabian Cancellara’s moves in a select group of proven classics stars, you are more than just a sprinter. Is Goss a classics star in the making as well?

3. Goss’s development is starting to make Andre Greipel’s dismissal from HTC look like a pretty safe move. Though Greipel has yet to live up to some of the hype surrounding him, his performance at MSR was impressive. The German buried himself on the lower slopes of the Poggio to keep the four-man break of Steve Chainel, Yoann Offredo, Greg Van Avermaet, and Stuart O’Grady within striking distance of Phillipe Gilbert.

4. Speaking of burying himself, FDJ’s Chainel put in a huge effort before the Poggio dragging himself, teammate Offredo,  O’Grady, and Van Avermaet off the front first group. It was one of the most impressive moves of the race.

5. As for one most impressive moves of the race, Lampre’s Michele Scarponi made an incredible bridge from the second peloton to the lead group at a time when it appeared that the following group had no strength or inclination to continue its chase. At first it appeared that Scarponi was slipping away just for the honor of finishing among the 40 or so survivors in the front group, but he remained active in the finale to finish 6th. Scarponi and Vincenzo Nibali’s performances bode well for May’s Giro d’Italia.

6. Fine performances abounded over the Poggio: BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet took advantage of an accelerating team car to attack his breakaway group and made a beautiful and desperate bid for freedom that survived until the lower slopes of the Poggio’s descent. Liquigas’ Vincenzo Nibali attacked repeatedly, finally breaking clear over the Poggio as a tired and limb-thrashing Yoann Offredo struggled to hold his wheel. Nibali’s move initiated the final selection, and few were able to react to the Italian’s powerful attack.

7. And, are you paying attention to Yoann Offredo yet? If not, you should be.

8. And what of our heroes? Phillipe Gilbert lets his legs do the talking but he may have tried to say a bit too much from the Poggio to the finish line – on the front for much of the Poggio, attacking after the descent, and finally, trying to sprint. A fine performance, no doubt, but perhaps a bit over-eager. Fabian Cancellara, on the other hand, raced very patiently, but re-learned a very difficult lesson from the 2009 World Championship Road Race: it’s difficult even for the best descender in the peloton to attack on a downhill. In an unusual twist, his 2nd place came thanks to an impressive burst which he called “the sprint of his life.”

For every inspiring turning of the pedals, though, there were some disappointing ones as well:

9. Garmin-Cervelo found themselves in a strong position after the splitting of the peloton with Heinrich Haussler and master tactician Andreas Klier in the first group. When all was said and done though, the race favorites played their hand wrong. They chose not to drive the second group to reconnect with the first, choosing to play Klier – who pulled out one attack before the Poggio – and Haussler, who missed the Nibali, Cancellara, Gilbert, etc. move over the Poggio in pursuit of Greg Van Avermaet.

10. What’s Heinrich Haussler’s excuse for missing the move over the Poggio? Garmin-Cervelo’s Vaughters attributes it to Haussler’s uneven, injury-riddled 2010 season, which left him without a Grand Tour in his legs.

11. Much like the Sidi ad, Milan-San Remo exposed Filippo Pozzato’s naked self. He was willing to chase down Phillipe Gilbert’s attack in the final kilometers, but could manage nothing more than fifth on the day. Maybe instead of his courage-symbolizing carp tattoo, he should have gotten a beta fish – maybe then he’d attack on his own.

12. Rabobank really missed Matti Breschel today. At peak fitness, he could have given Goss a run for his money.

13. And lastly, Farnese’s Takashi Miyazawa, the National Champion of Japan, had an emotional moment during a minute of silence for the victims of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami. He followed this by spending over 200 kilometers in the race’s early break. We tip our hat.

And you? What were your thoughts on Saturday’s Milan-San Remo? Share your comments below.

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The Sticky Bidon – March 18, 2011

2010 Milan-San Remo - Gilbert Attacks

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, March 18, 2011

Seen any cool links we missed? Share ’em in the comments below!

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The Feed Zone – Milan-San Remo Live Chat 2011

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