2012/13 US Cross Week 3 – Predictions

Posted on September 21, 2012 by

Nicolas Bazin wins the first race of the 2012 Verge New England Cyclocross Series. Photo: Todd Prekaski.

After a mid-week showdown in Vegas, the biggest names in cross converge on Wisconsin for the first two rounds of the USGP. While the series ran into some financial struggles about a month ago, the fields look bigger and better than ever. With two days of racing, including a C1 race on Saturday, this weekend promises some exciting action and great racing.

The Planet Bike Cup – USGP Rounds 1 & 2 (C1/C2)

The Winner(s)

Jeremy Powers – Powers looked unstoppable on Wednesday night as he stormed to victory in Vegas. I saw Powers last weekend at Nittany cross and while he looked strong, his emphasis seemed to be on January and February. As a result, I figured the early season didn’t matter to him. Boy was I wrong. The defending USGP champ will be on the podium both days, taking the top-step at least once.

Tim Johnson – like Powers, Johnson showed he’s on great form in Vegas. He looked really good in Vermont, but was unable to capture a victory. It would appear that the Powers-Johnson rivalry is back and I expect the Cannondale p/b Cyclocrossworld.com rider to get his first victory of the season this weekend.

The Podium

Ben Berden – In 1994, Berden finished on the third step of the U23 World Championship podium on Koksijde, Belgium. Fast forward nearly two decades and Berden is back in the thick of things, in the US at least. Berden looked solid on Wednesday night and while he will surely pick up some wins this year, I’m not sure he can do it this weekend. He could easily podium both days though.

Jonathan Page – in what appears to be a transition year for Page, he has been battling for the win at nearly every race this season. However, he hasn’t reached the top step. Page has had success in Wisconsin in the past and would love to win a round of the USGP. I just don’t think he’ll do it, but he’s good for a podium appearance.

Charm City MAC Rounds 3&4 (UCI C2)

The MAC series continues this weekend in Baltimore, MD. Last weekend Jeremy Powers took day one, while mid-Atlantic standout Jared Nieters took day two. Nicolas Bazin is venturing down from New England where he has been nearly unbeatable, while Ian Field crosses the pond for a mini US campaign.

The Winner(s)

Nicolas Bazin – Bazin has been killing it stateside with three victories and one second place in four races. The Frenchman looks prime for another victory this weekend, if not two. For some reason, I think Field will get the better of him one day this weekend.

Ian Field – a winner here last year, Field comes over from England following a non-UCI victory last weekend. Bazin whill give him a run for his money, but a repeat victory seems certain for Field. He should finish on the podium both days and I expect him to trade the top-step with Bazin,

The Podium

Ryan Knapp – Before Nittany, Knapp was low on my riders to watch list. In fact, I only mentioned him in the last sentence of my predictions and even got his state wrong (I’ve sinced apologized to the man from Indiana). Knapp rode well last weekend with a third and fourth place finish. I expect him to land on the podium one day this weekend.

Jared Nieters – Last weekend I was critical of the mid-Atlantic, proclaiming that no mid-Atlantic rider would finish on the podium. Nieters proved me wrong. To my credit, I kept an eye on Nieters and his teammate Weston Schempf, both of whom should be in the mix this weekend. Look for Nieters to land on the podium one of those days.

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2012/13 European Cross Week 2 – Predictions

Posted on September 21, 2012 by

Peter Dlask. Photo: Michal Sváček, MF Dnes.

For those not in the know, the Toi Toi Cup is the Czech Republic’s national series. It is similar to the USGP in the states, or the National Trophy series in England. Unlike those series though, the Toi Toi Cup only offers eight rounds of elite racing, while lower categories have 12 races. The series is usually hotly contested between two or three riders, often times one of those riders is a foreigner. Here are my predictions for round one:

Toi Toi Cup Round 1 – Lostice, CZE (UCI C2)

The Winner

Peter Dlask – Dlask is one of the top riders in the Czech Republic and was in the running for the overall last year. Usually the first round of the Toi Toi Cup is dominated by Zdenk Stybar, but in his absence Dlask should shine. It also helps that Dlask is a three-time winner of this race.

The Podium

Radomir Simunek – Another great Czech rider, Simunek always seems on the cusp of greatness. While he failed to win a race last year, he was in the top-ten in nearly every Superprestige and ended up 11th on UCI points. While he has a shot for victory, I think Dlask will be able to edge him out.

Vladimir Kyzivat – The 2011/12 Toi Toi Cup winner would love to start this season off with a bang. Kyzivat won this series off of consistency last year and should be able to do the same this year. While he didn’t win a race last year, he was always in the hunt and should pick up a victory at some point this year. For this race, he’s good for a podium appearance.

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2012 CrossVegas Predictions

Posted on September 18, 2012 by

Photo Courtesy of CrossVegas & Lyne Lamoureux

After a mixed weekend for the predictor, it’s time to dive back in as the European-North American showdown that is CrossVegas takes Sin City by storm on Wednesday. Each year, the amount, and caliber, of foreign riders has increased and this year is no exception. There’s a bevy of talent crossing the pond including defending champion, Lars van der Haar (also the current U23 World Champion), Rob Peeters (third last year), Swiss National Champion Lukas Fluckinger and Junior World Champion Arnoud Jouffrey. In addition to the European talent, we will see our first showdown between US National Champion Jeremy Powers (4th last year), Ryan Trebon (5th last year) and Tim Johnson (7th last year). But enough about who’s going to be there, this is about who’s going to win.

The Winner

Lars van der Haar – while you may think I’m taking the easy way out, this kid is legit. Despite still having a year left in the U23 ranks, van der Haar petitioned the UCI in February to race as an elite this year. Needless to say the two-time U23 World Champion got his wish and will be looking to make an early impact in his first official season as an elite. In my book, he’s one of the top-five riders in the world this year and after watching him in Vegas last year, there’s no one who can stop him.

The Podium

Rob Peeters – the 27-year-old Belgian only won one race last year. However, he finished inside the top-ten in nearly every race he entered and ended up tenth in UCI points. He finished third last year in Vegas and should be able to move up a spot this year. Last year he looked destined for the top step of the posium until a small Dutch rider snuck past him with a spectacular kick. Unfortunately for Peeters, and the rest of the field, that small Dutch rider is back.

Ryan Trebon – “Tree farm” starts his season in Vegas and remains the only two-time winner of the event. Trebon technically already has a win under his belt this season and would love to reward his new Cannondale p/b Cyclocrossworld team with a victory. Unless Trebon can sneak away early, he’ll be out matched by the European riders, especially if it comes down to a sprint. That’s why I pick him for third.

The Wildcard

There are literally half-a-dozen riders who could play spoiler on Wednesday and if last week was any indication, one of them will. However, my eyes are on one man: Jamey Driscoll. Driscoll won this race in 2009 and his only shot is to do it the same way he did then, solo. If Driscoll can get away from what will most likely be a large (six plus) lead group, he has a shot. I don’t think he can do it with all the talent in this field, but if anyone has a chance, he does.

Finally, I have a few news and notes for this week. I have finally come up with a points system to keep track of my predictions. Each race is worth five (5) points, three (3) points for the winner and one (1) point for each member of the podium. I’ll have an update with the points I’ve earned so far later this week. In addition, I had a long conversation with Jeremy Powers on Saturday and hope to have that interview posted this week. Last, but certainly not least we have a note from our error department. I said Ryan Knapp was from Ohio, he’s not, he’s from Indiana. That covers it for now. If you’re in Vegas this week, have fun. I’m skipping it this year in anticipation of some bigger trips later this season.

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2012/13 US Cross Week 2 – Predictions

Posted on September 14, 2012 by

Powers takes the win at Nittany Lion Cross in 2011. Photo: cyclingcaptured.com

Four UCI races mark the US calendar this weekend, two in Vermont and two in Pennsylvania. Both also mark the start of two of the longest running regional series: the New England Cyclocross series and the Mid-Atlantic Cross series. When the dust settles, I’m looking for Massachusetts riders to dominate all four races.

Green Mountain Cyclo-Cross Weekend – Verge NECXS Rounds 1 & 2 (UCI C2)

The Winner(s)

Tim Johnson – while Nicolas Bazin stole the show last weekend going two-for-two, I look for Johnson to pick up a victory in Williston. Johnson appears to be on great form after winning the very tough Green Mountain Stage Race, less than two weeks ago. He’ll have to ride close to perfect, but he’ll grace the top step of the podium at least once this weekend.

Nicolas Bazin – Bazin won two hard fought victories last weekend and looks poised to win at least once this weekend. Johnson and he should go toe-to-toe both days and will split the victories.

The Podium

Jonathan Page – the storied Page vs. Johnson rivalry will continue this weekend, with Johnson getting the upper hand. Page looked impressive last weekend and without any bad luck he could contend for the victory this weekend as well. Unfortunately, with Johnson and Bazin both gunning for victory, I think Page may struggle to keep up. However, I expect him to finish on the podium both days this weekend.

The Wildcards

On any given day in New England any of the nearly half-dozen riders mentioned below could contend for victory. While I have faith in my podium predictions, deep down I know one of the guys will make things very interesting and could very well spoil my predictions. Look for Justin Lindine, Adam Myerson, Luke Keough and Jamie Driscoll to play the spoiler role all weekend.

Nittany Lion Cross – MAC Series Rounds 1 & 2 (UCI C2)

The Winner

Jeremy Powers – the defending race winner and current US National Champion returns to Trexlertown to pick up where he left off. While nothing is guaranteed, I can honestly say I expect Powers to dominate both days.

The Podium

Craig Richey – coming off a pair of fourth place finishes last weekend, I expect Richey to stand firmly on the podium both days this weekend. The 29-year-old Canadian is a strong rider and while he may not be able to keep up with Powers, he should be able to provide a formidable chase.

Jeremy Durrin – to be completely honest, I didn’t expect Durrin to place inside the top-five last weekend let alone podium. Clearly he’s on good form and is making it count. He spent roughly a month in Europe last year and while his results weren’t spectacular, he’s clearly used it as a valuable learning experience. I expect him to podium both days.

Where’s the mid-Atlantic?

As a member of the mid-Atlantic cross community, it pains me to say that I don’t think a mid-Atlantic rider will finish on the podium. In fact, my dark horse, Alec Donahue, is from Massachusetts (as are Powers and Durrin). However, Jared Nieters and Weston Schempf should lead the way for the mid-Atlantic region with both riders capable of a top-five finish. I wouldn’t be surprised if either rider is in the mix early, I just don’t think they have what it takes to hang on at this point. Don’t be surprised if Ryan Knapp makes his presence felt either. The Ohioan usually puts in a solid performance at Nittany.

I’m still working on a method to keep track of my predictions, but I hope to have some sort of points system in place after this weekend. As always, your comments and/or predictions are welcomed. Feel free to let the world know who you think is going to win.

One last note: Pave will be on hand this weekend in Trexlertown to catch all of the action. If you’re there, feel free to hunt me down and say hello.

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2012/13 European Cross Week 1 – Predictions

Posted on September 14, 2012 by

PHOTO BY BALINT HAMVAS | CYCLEPHOTOS.CO.UK

Sunday’s Süpercross Baden in Switzerland will mark the start of the 2012/13 cross season in Europe. This C1 race promises a lot of UCI points and a lot of action as some of the best cross racers in the world will line up on Sunday. While this is a predominantly Swiss race, the talent coming from outside of the country should dominate. Here are my predictions:

The Winner

Sven Nys – The “Cannibal of Baal” should reign supreme in a race that he wants to win. Nys may be entering the last season of his storied career, and will be looking to take advantage of every opportunity he can. He focused all year on the Olympics, but we all know when it’s time for cross, Nys is there. It may be close, but I expect him to take the top step of the podium.

The Podium

Francis Mourey – The always consistent Mourey kicks off his season in Baden. Mourey is dominant on his native soil, but seems to struggle to win outside of France. He was the runner up last year and looks set to be the runner up again. If he can get a head of Nys early, he could take home the victory, but I’d call it an upset if he does.

Simon Zahner – There’s a handful of riders who could be battling for third on Sunday. Zahner gets the edge for one simple reason: he’s Swiss. While he’s no lock, I think a Swiss rider will finish on the podium this weekend and Zahner looks to be the best choice. However, Steve Chainel, Enrico Franzoi, Thijs Van Amerongen and Sven Vanthourenhout should all be in the battle for third. Should Zahner falter, look for Marcel Wildhaber or one of the Flückiger brothers to be the top swiss rider.

I’m still working on a method to keep track of my predictions, but I hope to have some sort of points system in place after this weekend. As always, your comments and/or predictions are welcomed. Feel free to let the world know who you think is going to win.

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2012/13 US Cross Preview – West Coast

Posted on September 13, 2012 by

Jonathan Page bunnyhops the barriers at Rohrbach Ellison Park Cyclocross. Photo: Brian Boucheron

We continue our US season preview with five West coast riders to watch for the 2012/13 season. With Jonathan Page moving westward, and the inclusion of a rider from Colorado (which we know isn’t near the West coast), this list contains three multi-time Elite National champions. It also includes a USGP winner, an Olympian, and perhaps the best U23 rider in the country. To say that the East vs. West battle is tilted towards the East would be a drastic understatement. In fact, the scales could be tipping the other way for some years to come. The riders on this list have finished on the elite National championship podium a combined 25 times since 2002, including 10 straight appearances by Page. Needless to say, the West coast could make an argument that they have the most consistent riders in the country.

Ryan Trebon

While many may see Trebon’s switch to the Cannondale p/b Cyclocrossworld.com team as a benifit for him, it may actually be the other way around. The team struggled to get wins last year and outside of a few sporadic victories, it was Trebon and Jeremy Powers who stole the show. Many forget that Trebon was a practical lock for the USGP before a knee injury nearly cost him his season. He rebounded well with a pair of wins in Chicago and an 18th place at Worlds. Besides being the top American at Worlds, Trebon finished on the podium 16 times, half of which were victories. Having Tim Johnson and Jamie Driscoll as teammates will surely help Trebon, and if he has an injury free season, he could easily be the best American rider this season.

Jonathan Page

Massachusetts native Jonathan Page joins the list of Western riders as he and his family moved to Idaho. Last year’s season was a disappointment for Page as he failed to pick up a win and only finished on the podium five times. Page has been a long standing European based rider, and despite a rough season last year, he’s headed there in October for what may be one last go around. On top of all that, sponsorship issues have left many wondering what Page’s exact schedule will look like. Despite all these issues, Page may have one last big season in him. Will he once again reach a podium at Worlds? Probably not. Could he finish inside the top-ten in European races? Absolutely.

Zach McDonald

McDonald turned a lot of heads this past January as he took the U23 National title and followed it up with a fourth place in the elite men’s race. McDonald is an integral part of the the Rapha/Focus team and looks poised to take the U23 world by storm. McDonald doesn’t travel much, sticking to a largely West coast schedule. However, when he does travel, he likes to make an impact. He rode away with the U23 USGP title despite only participating in six of the eight races. He also pulled off a third place finish at Heuseden-Zolder (U23) and a 12th at U23 Worlds. With results like those, this season looks promising for the young Washington native. Louisville should be a huge focus for McDonald, where he could easily pull off a top-ten finish.

Chris Jones

This year, Jones returns as a member of the Rapha/Focus trio. Like his teammate McDonald, Jones spent last year staying close to his home in California. While Jones was unable to reach the top step of the podium, he managed to notch 14 top-five finishes in 18 races. Jones has had a lengthy road season with United HealthCare, but looks poised to improve on last years results. Look for Jones to make an early statement at CrossVegas and continue to battle for the podium throughout the season in the US.

Todd Wells

While Colorado isn’t close to the West coast, for our purposes we’re going to lump the three-time National champion in with the rest of the top West coast riders. Last year, Wells made an early exit from the cross season in order to fully prepare for the 2012 London Olympics. Clearly that decision paid off as Wells had one of his best mountain bike seasons ever, including a 10th place finish in London. Despite his short season, Wells had one victory, six podium appearances and only one non top-ten finish in 13 races. Wells is going to take a slower approach to starting his cross campaign this season, skipping early season races like CrossVegas. This tactic has paid off well for Wells in the past, including in 2010, when he won his third National championship.

While the East coast has long been considered a hotbed for cross, it is clear that the West coast is no pushover. Oregon hosts some of the largest attended cyclocross races in the country, while Washington and California both have series that are growing by leaps and bounds. Once again, the West coast is home to six UCI races, including a C1 race in Bend, OR. With plenty of top tier talent and an incredible growth on the grassroot level, the West coast is sure to give the East coast a run for their money for years to come.

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