Domestic Cyclocross Report & Power Ranking – Week #3

Posted on October 6, 2010 by
2010 Krosstoberfest - Day 1 Podium

http://www.rapha-focus.cx

Nicknamed “New England Worlds,” Rounds Three and Four of the NACT headed to Gloucester, Massachusetts for a pair of UCI races this past weekend.  And in what seemed like a repeat of the Planet Bike Cup last week in Wisconsin, Jeremy Powers and Tim Johnson picked-up victories. As if they needed extra motivation, the battle for the overall NACT lead was wide open, due to the fact that series leader Francis Mourey had returned to Europe.


Day One of the Grand Prix of Gloucester marked a slight change of pace, as Ryan Trebon took-off in a first lap attack. Johnson and Powers quickly followed and the leading trio easily distanced themselves from the rest of the field. Powers and Johnson traded blows while Trebon eventually dropped-off the pace following a crash. Fortunately, Trebon would rebound, riding the rest of the chase group off his wheel en-route to a third-place finish. Ahead, Powers picked-up the win after establishing a large gap while Johnson pitted during the last lap.


Gloucester’s second day looked eerily similar to the other races this season as Powers launched a first lap attack, whittling the lead group down to a select few. Following the usual script, Powers and Johnson then escaped, leaving Trebon to do the bulk of the chasing. Jamey Driscoll attempted to join his teammates at the front of the race; he came very close, but never reached the leading duo. He held-on for third though, making it a Cyclocrossworld.com sweep with Johnson taking the win.


Behind Cyclocrossworld.com’s destruction, several riders had great weekends. Trebon looked very strong despite finishing outside the top-10 on Sunday. Valentin Scherz picked-up a pair of top-10 finishes, making him the top U23 rider both days. Tristan Schouten proved he’s no one-hit wonder, finishing inside the top-10 both days as well. In addition, the Italians, Davide Frattini and Luca Damiani both made their presence felt. Finally, six-time Nation Champion, Jesse Anthony put in two great days in front of a “hometown” New England crowd with a pair of top-10 finishes of his own.


On the left side of the country, UCI cross racing returned to sunny California for the Krosstoberfest weekend—the first time in two years that California featured a pair of UCI races. In another pair of firsts, Joachim Parbo and Danny Summerhill each took their first ever UCI wins. Both riders battled extremely hot weather and surprisingly strong fields in Southern California to emerge victorious.


Parbo’s victory didn’t come without a bit of drama. Behind the very fast and young duo of Summerhill and Zach McDonald, Parbo spent the bulk of the race in the chase group. After bridging across late, Parbo made his last-ditch move on the penultimate lap, holding-on for a solo victory. Sunday’s race took an entirely different shape as roadie Chris Jones set the pace for the bulk of the day. After multiple attacks, Jones and Summerhill were able to break away from a strong chase group that included Saturday’s winner Parbo. Summerhill outsprinted Jones, to take his first UCI victory.


Domestic Power Ranking – Week 3


1. Tim Johnson (2) – Johnson takes over the #1 spot after he spent another weekend swapping victories with teammate Jeremy Powers. That said, Johnson looked like the better rider both days. (If it weren’t for an ill-timed pit stop, he most likely would have taken both victories.) Johnson is clearly the best rider in the US right now.


2. Jeremy Powers (1) – Powers continued to look very impressive in Gloucester. His victory on Saturday was well deserved and his trademark attack on Sunday set the stage for an impressive Cyclocrossworld.com podium sweep. Bottom line: I’m still not convinced that Powers is better than Johnson, especially if the course turns a bit technical. For now, he remains the second-best rider in the US.


3. Ryan Trebon (3) – The biggest victim of Cyclocrossworld.com’s domination continues to be Trebon. He’s often forced to chase, which benefits everyone but him. On Saturday he finally tried to attack from the gun, and may have shocked the partisan New England crowd had he not crashed out of the lead group. His 14th on Saturday proves that Trebon continues to struggle with back-to-back races, but his furious pace making both days must be taken into account.


4. Jamey Driscoll (4) – The often forgotten Cyclocrossworld.com rider pulled in a pair of top-5 finishes in Gloucester. His solo effort on Sunday was both painful and exciting to watch. While completing the team’s sweep Sunday, he came heartbreakingly close to joining his teammates at the front. Driscoll was the most consistent racer in the US last year; it appears he’s looking to continue the trend this year.


5. Davide Frattini (7) – Frattini often fades as the season goes on, especially in bigger races. However, he appears to have nixed that trend this year. He’s a constant face in the chase group, even at the biggest races in the country. I don’t think we’ll see a marquee victory from Frattini this season, but if he weren’t Italian I would put him on the short list of national title contenders. And at this rate, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t get an invite to Worlds.


6. Tristan Schouten (6) – After exploding onto the scene last weekend, Schouten continued his impressive season with a pair of top-10 finishes in Gloucester. More importantly, Schouten proved that he can have success outside of his native midwest. It will be interesting to see how Schouten fares as the season goes on. If he can maintain these kinds of results, he’s a near lock for a top-10 at Nationals.


7. Valentin Scherz (n/r) – After a weekend of local racing, Scherz proved that he’s still a force to be reckoned with as his pair of seventh-place’s made him the top U23 rider on both days. (It’s too bad the NACT doesn’t have an U23 class, though.) It will be interesting to see how Scherz progresses with better start positions in some of the upcoming races. Right now, I’d say he’s the best U23 rider in the US.


8. Justin Lindine (8) – Lindine continued his New England success with a pair of top-10’s in Gloucester and I’m sure he is thinking further down the road about a NECCS title. With his continued success, he’s also a rider to watch as his start positions improve.


9. Luca Damiani (10) – Moving-up one spot this week, the Italian put in two great rides in Gloucester. He finished just outside the top-10 Saturday, but rebounded with a stellar fourth-place finish Sunday. The Italian is still figuring out how to race against the top US pros, but continues to improve and impress each week.


10. Todd Wells (5) – After the Planet Bike Cup, Wells announced that he’d be taking a 2-week break. Wells remains in the Power Rankings though, because I believe he’s still one of the ten best riders in the country. He’s had some solid results this season; I expect them to get better with time. Hopefully he’s doing some training in between rounds of golf.


Dropped this week: Geoff Kabush (9).


After an exciting weekend of racing on both coasts, some riders will take a small break, while the rest will be split between Ohio and Rhode Island. The Cincinnati Cyclocross Festival returns this year with its trio of UCI races. Jeremy Powers took the hat trick last year and would love to repeat that success this weekend. Powers will have his hands-full though, with his biggest challenge coming from Ryan Trebon. Driscoll and Johnson aren’t making the trip and Trebon is desperate for a win—expect fireworks. Throw-in Joachim Parbo, Tristan Schouten, Chris Jones, local favorite, Ryan Knapp, and many others, and we have the makings of a showdown in the Midwest.


Meanwhile, the bulk of New England riders will focus their attention to two days of racing in Rhode Island. Saturday’s course is a near replica of the 2005 National Championship, while Sunday’s will be a technical variation of Saturday’s. With a smaller, but still powerful field, several riders will have the opportunity to pick-up their first UCI win—or two—of the season.


Come back tomorrow for our International Report and Power Ranking—and share your comments and picks below.  Anyone over or underrated?  Let us know!

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Worlds Elite Men’s Road Race – Winners & Losers

Posted on October 5, 2010 by


2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - Hushovd Wins

Fotoreporter Sirotti



The World Road Race Championship is without a doubt one of the sport’s greatest spectacles.  To me, the best thing about Worlds is its ability to produce a surprise winner that’s never really a surprise.  By this I mean that the World Champion is often not the rider you might have expected or wanted to win, but still someone whose victory comes as no shock.  Take last year, for example: Cadel Evans was not someone mentioned near the top of many lists of contenders, but when he won, most of us felt as if we could have seen it coming—even thought we didn’t.


With the exception of one of my esteemed colleagues, this year’s race produced a similar winner.  While I considered Hushovd an outside contender for the win Sunday, there were others whom I felt were more likely candidates.  In hindsight though, I’m not surprised at all.  That said, let’s take a look at Sunday’s winners and losers.


Winners


Jeremy

JR picked Thor for the win—and had been saying he was going to do so since the first week of the Vuelta.  Not many guys call their shots and get them right.  Color me impressed.


Thor Hushovd

Only a blog would give credit to one of its editors before giving credit to the man actually making the news.  All kidding aside, Thor rode a fantastic race, sticking with it long after others had abandoned, riding patiently while his teammate (Boasson Hagen) was in the leading group, and taking care of business when given the opportunity.  He now heads to Paris-Tours as a top favorite, and looks to become the first World Champion to win a major cobbled classic since Tom Boonen won the Ronde in 2006.



2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - P. Gilbert

Fotoreporter Sirotti



Philippe Gilbert

Gilbert entered Sunday’s race with a huge target on his back, yet raced the way true champions are expected to—even in defeat.  Moral victories don’t count for much in a country where the term “what have you done for me lately?” might as well as be the national motto, but Belgium has no reason to slight Gilbert’s efforts.  He did his best, but in the end was defeated by a course that proved just a bit too easy for an escape to stick.


Australia

Cadel Evans and his Aussie teammates more than held their own in front of a home crowd.  While the team failed to defend its title from Mendrisio, Evans made every move that mattered and Allan Davis took third on the day.  Good on ya, mates!


The New Course Format

I don’t know about you, but I liked the addition of a long lap before beginning the traditional finishing circuits.  It makes the race more interesting to watch, gives more fans a chance to see their stars, and has to be more interesting for the riders themselves.


The Killer V’s

Jonathan Vaughters and Gerard Vroomen now have a World Champion in their midst—certainly the biggest win in either squad’s history.   The bar has been raised for 2011, but with a solid team of men ready to prove they belong, more big wins—and the publicity that accompanies them—seem certain to follow.



Losers


Mattio and I

We completely misjudged the race—my pick (Matthew Goss) didn’t even finish.  Ugh.



2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - F. Cancellara

Fotoreporter Sirotti



Fabian Cancellara

Talk about hero to zero!  Cancellara finished 50th after failing to make the day’s key selection.  If Cancellara’s really serious about winning Worlds—and the hillier monuments—one day, he’ll need to seriously re-think the scope and sequence of his season.  Anything’s possible for the powerful Swiss champion, but his performance Sunday leaves a bad taste in the mouths of those expecting a repeat of his dominating April.


Belgium

Belgium has to be wondering what Sunday would have been like had an in-form Tom Boonen made the trip.  While they can’t be blamed for his non-selection (he’s only just returned to racing after an injury-riddled summer), they have to be disappointed to see their boys come home empty-handed.  The team rode as well as it could have given the conditions, they just lacked a rider able to contend in that kind of finale.


Paolo Bettini

Running the Italian National team is a lot like managing the New York Yankees or coaching Real Madrid as its nearly impossible to live up to the expectations of the world’s most passionate fans—especially when you have one of the planet’s most gifted talent pool from which to build your team. Italy’s strongest move was sending Vincenzo Nibali up the road with a few laps left to race—even if it was probably a bit too soon.  In the end, Pippo Pozzato followed wheels to fourth place, but never appeared strong enough to win.  After leaving several men known more for their powerful sprints at home, Bettini has several questions to answer.  Even worse for the new capo, next year’s sprinter’s course in Copenhagen won’t make life any easier.



2010 Worlds Elite Men's Road Race - Spain

Fotoreporter Sirotti



Spain

Samuel Sanchez and Luis Leon Sanchez failed to even finish, while 3-time champion Oscar Freire—in a finale that seemed tailor-made for him—could manage no better than sixth.  Freire’s best days might be creeping behind him, but the question remains: how did he end up alone in the lead group?  With not a single teammate able to make the cut, Spanish fans can’t be blamed for wondering how many days remain before Valverde’s return.


The United States

Is it harsh to wonder if the United States’ U23 team would have fared better Sunday than the elite men did?  Tyler Farrar was nowhere to be seen—the top US-finisher was Ted King in 73rd, more than 13 minutes behind Hushovd.  On a day when many (including yours truly) had expected Farrar to prove that he’s more than just a field sprinter, he failed to impress.  It’s a shame USA Cycling seems to treat the elite men’s road race as more of a vacation than an objective.


Race Radio Fans

Sorry Johan Bruyneel, but every time a race is run without the use of rider-to-car radios, it’s exciting, aggressive, and almost never fails to produce a worthy winner.  Was Sunday a glimpse into cycling’s future?


What about you?  Who are your Worlds winners and losers?  Share your comments below.

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International Cyclocross Report & Power Ranking – Week #1

Posted on October 2, 2010 by

Editor’s Note – The first International CX Report & Power Ranking comes a bit late this week due to our expanded Worlds coverage.  Next week, look for Erik’s column to resume it’s usual Thursday time slot.


The European cross season kicked-off in grand fashion with the Steenbergcross race in Belgium two weekends ago. When all was said and done, Belgian National Champion Sven Nys crossed the line in first place after he unleashed an impressive uphill sprint that left Bart Aernouts settling for second—ahead of a strong Kevin Pauwels. Klaas Vantornout also showed great form, but was dropped from the lead group after suffering a mechanical. Perhaps the most impressive performance came from Belgian U23 standout Tom Meeusen, who finished fifth in the first race of his first full elite season.


With one race under their belts, several riders made the trip to the Netherlands for Openingsveldrit van Harderwijk last Saturday. However, riders like Nys, Aernouts and Pauwels opted not to travel, instead staying in Belgium for a race on Sunday. In their absence, Dieter Vanthourenhout picked-up a hard fought victory. Tom van den Bosh (Bel) finished second, while Patrick van Leeuwen (Ned) took third.


The Toi Toi Cup, the Czech Republic’s national series, got a serious boost in star power when World Champion Zdenek Stybar opted to start his season on home soil. Stybar proved that last season was no fluke with a commanding victory over a largely Czech field. Belgian Rob Peeters took second, while Czech standout David Kasek finished third.


Back to Belgium, where after a hot and dry start to the season at the Steenbergcross, the GP Neerpelt Wisseltrofee provided a more traditional affair with a wet, technical course. Sven Nys grabbed his second victory, in as many races, with a mad dash to the line. Nys used his technical skills and raw power to attack a lead group containing Vantornout, Aernouts and Pauwels through the course’s last sandpit. (It’s definitely something worth watching.) Vantournout held-on for second and Aernouts beat Pauwels to the line, picking-up third. More importantly, Nys has become the talk of Belgium—the cannibal is back.


While Belgium is abuzz with Nys’ impressive performance, Stybar continued his home soil domination with another impressive victory in round two of the Toi Toi Cup. Stybar won Tuesday’s race by over two minutes. Jiri Polnicky finished second and David Kasek finished third, making it a Czech sweep.


For the first time ever, a group of European superstars made their way over to the US for several weeks of racing. The biggest name, and stand out, was French National Champion Francis Mourey. Mourey picked up three straight victories (StarCrossed, Rad Racing GP and CrossVegas) along with a podium appearance at roun two of the USGP. Joining Mourey were Jonathan Page and Christian Heule, both of whom have used the early start to the US season as a launching pad over the past few years.


Heule, who will most likely retire at the end of this season, also had some impressive results. In five races, Heule picked up five top-five finishes, making it one of his best starts in nearly a decade. Page, who announced that he would only do a handful of races in the US, had a lukewarm start to the season. While Page raced well, he failed to every truly make it out of the chase group in all five races that he did. However, with nearly four months left in the European season, Page may be taking a slower start to the season than in years past.


With a bevy of action on both continents, several riders have made impressive debuts this season. One name missing from the results is former World Champion Niels Albert. After he recovered from a pre-season illness, Albert learned that he had a minor tear in his knee. Albert plans to be back for the first World Cup round. However, he will miss the first rounds of the GVA Trophy and Superprestige series.


Perhaps the biggest news that came out right before the season started was the return of former World Champion Lars Boom. While Boom didn’t make an exact schedule clear, he did say he’ll do half a dozen races, beginning in December. He also made it clear that due to his road commitments, he will miss out on Worlds. Depending on what races he does, he could throw a wrench in a lot of racers season and goals.


What a couple of weeks it has been. It’s hard to believe that the first big race of the season is finally upon us, but feels like it’s time for a big showdown. Nys and Stybar have proved dominant, but there are a handful of riders, old and new, that have thrown their hat in the ring. Where does everyone fall in the first rankings of the season? Time to find out:


International Power Ranking:


1. Sven Nys (4) – Last year, Nys had a rough start to the season and faced a lot of criticism. As the season wound down, his lack of domination allowed that criticism to linger. The best way to leave all that behind, dominate the start of this year’s season. Which is exactly what Nys did. However, the lack of Albert and Stybar, his biggest competition last year, allows some of that criticism to linger. This Sunday will be Nys’ chance to finally silence all the critics.


2. Zdenek Stybar (1) – To say that Stybar dominated his first two races would be an understatement. He decimated the competition. However, it was a far weaker field then the ones that Nys faced in Belgium. While the Toi Toi Cup has produced a few strong riders of the past few years, the lack of depth dampens the impact of his wins. As with Nys, Sunday will be Stybar’s chance to prove that he’s the best in the World.


3. Klaas Vantornout (10) – Vantornout was one of a few people who were able to keep pace with Nys, picking up second place at the GP Neerpelt Wisseltrofee. He may have been able to stay with Nys at Steenbergcross if it weren’t for an ill-timed mechanical. Vantornout often found himself on the front of the chase group last season and seems to have made the jump to the front group this year. How long he can stay remains to be seen.


4. Bart Aernouts (8) – Aernouts is the only rider, besides Vantornout, who was able to keep pace with Nys. As a result, he managed to pick up a pair of third place finishes. The former Junior World Champion has continued to improve over the past few years. Much like Vantornout, Aernouts was chase group fodder for the bulk of last season. Both riders will face a true test this Sunday with the first round of the GVA Trophy.


5. Kevin Pauwels (3) – Last years revelation, the Belgian started off his season with a pair of solid fourth-place finishes. He was able to hang with the leaders at the GP Neerpelt Wisseltrofee race, but still has failed to truly impress. Last year Pauwels had a few breakout victories, the question is can he continue this trend. So far he looks just like he did last year.


6. Francis Mourey – Mourey finally showed he can dominate races outside of France. However, in previous years Christian Heule and Jonathan Page have shown similar success on US soil, only to struggle in Europe. Mourey’s palmares lead me to believe that this won’t happen, but for now he sits just outside the top-five. He returns to Europe this weekend and it will be very interesting to see how he fares.


7. Dieter Vanthourenhout (5) – Vanthourenhout was one of the few riders who ventured to the Netherlands for the Openingsveldrit van Harderwijk. It proved to be a great move as Vanthourenout picked up the win. Match that with a pair of top-ten finishes, and Vanthourenout looks very impressive. Last year he bounced back from a spectacular crash and was a constant face amongst the chase group. Perhaps his Netherlands victory was a sign of things to come.


8. Tom Meeusen – Meeusen had a very solid start in his first full season as an elite rider. Last year Meeusen dominated the U23 ranks and is considered by many the next Sven Nys. It will be a very interesting transitional season for Meeusen. If he remains consistently in the top-ten, he could become a major threat within the coming years.


9. Bart Wellens (2) – Wellens’ mid-season return last year was nothing short of amazing. He was consistently inside the top-ten and earned a spot on the highly competitive Belgian Worlds team. This year, he was looking forward to a very strong, full, cross season. It appears that he’s right on track for that with a pair of top-ten finishes, despite a crash at the Openingsveldrit van Harderwijk, which knocked him out of the lead group.


10. Gerben de Knegt (7) – The return of Lars Boom will give de Knegt a run for his money as the best Dutch cross racer. De Knegt had a solid third place finish at CrossVegas, as he eases his way into the season. Like the rest of the European racers who started their season in the US, de Knegt will return to Europe this weekend. It will be interesting to see how the second-oldest member of the cross peloton performs.



Even though Stybar’s wins came over significantly weaker fields, the margins of his victories are very impressive. Meanwhile, Nys has once again become the toast of the town. This Sunday, the two will finally go head-to-head in the first round of the GVA Trophy. In addition, all eyes will be on the half-dozen riders who are kicking off their European season after a stint in the US. The only other action on the European continent comes Saturday, in Slovakia. A solid field is expected, but most of the top riders will use Saturday to relax a head of the season’s first big race, when all eyes will focus on Namur, Belgium.

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2010 UCI World Championships РPav̩ Staff Picks

Posted on October 1, 2010 by

As promised, here are some of the Pavé staff’s picks for Sunday.

Whit’s Picks:

Nothing would make me happier than a win Sunday for Belgium’s Philippe Gilbert.  Gilbert reminds me my all-time favorite—Michele Bartoli.  Like Bartoli, Gilbert rides by feel—often attacking at moments when others might hesitate or second-guess their gut reaction.  Bartoli was savvy, powerful, and possessed skills that led him to wins in Flanders, the Ardennes, and Lombardy.  He was a true classics rider in every sense of the word.


Yet he never won a world title, and neither will Gilbert—at least not this year.


First of all, he’s favored too heavily.  Even for such an aggressive rider, the weight of being the numero uno favorite is a death sentence in a race like Worlds.  Worse though, this year’s race seems to favor sprinters—at least those able to handle themselves on selective courses.  Look at the U23 road race: a group of about 40 hit the line with sprinters such as Matthews, Phinney, Boivin, and Degenkolb fighting for the title.


The strongest teams in this year’s race all feature sprinters able to handle themselves on the course in Melbourne.  The USA (Farrar), Germany (Greipel), Australia (Goss), and Spain (Freire) would all be more than content to see the race come down to a group of 20-30 riders—as long as Great Britain’s Mark Cavendish fails to make the cut.  Better still, each of these teams has a rider or two strong enough to win from a breakaway, thus forcing Gilbert’s Belgian squad to chase should they get away. (Boy, would things be different were Tom Boonen racing!) Expect several men to give it their best shot in a breakaway—including Kolobnev and Gilbert (two men from 9-men teams without traditional sprinters)—but ultimately fall short when Germany, the USA, and Spain reel them back in.


In the end, I see this year’s championship closely resembling 2000, when Romans Vainsteins won the sprint from a group of about 25.  Thus, we need look no further than this year’s Grand Prix Ouest France in Plouay, for a preview of Sunday’s podium.  The top two from August will remain the same, with Filippo Pozzato taking third for the azzurri.


My podium picks:

Gold: M. Goss

Silver: T. Farrar

Bronze: F. Pozzato


Dark Horse:

As for a dark horse candidate, look no further than Slovenia’s Grega Bole.  The Lampre rider took the win in Stage 1 at this year’s Dauphiné, wining the sprint from a small group after a climb before the finish eliminated the other field sprinters.  After a Tour spent at the service of Alessandro Petacchi, Bole contended for the win in Poland before taking scoring top-10’s (while working for Petacchi) at last month’s Vuelta.  In 1999, a small Spanish sprinter named Oscar Freire latched himself onto the back of a breakaway to win his first world title in Verona—could Melbourne be Bole’s breakthrough?



Mattio’s Picks:

There’s been much well-deserved talk about Gilbert’s and Pozzato’s respective chances at Worlds this year. With the Belgians and Italians each trying to convince the media that the other team will bear the responsibility of controlling the race, I think that the race will be won by a strong, savvy attacker that takes advantage of the duel between those two favorites and solos to victory. Fabian Cancellara wants stripes and will get them this year. He’s managed to avoid being labeled a favorite – the media are too busy speculating about whom he’ll ride for next year. With the Belgian and Italian teams promising to make the race difficult to drop the sprinters, and with all eyes on Gilbert and Pozzato in a reduced group in the final twenty kilometers or so, Spartacus will slip away for the victory and wear the stripes he’s wanted for so long. It’s been a good Grand Tour season, but we can’t have already forgotten his performance this spring, right?


Tyler Farrar will win the sprint from a small group to take second. He had a strong Vuelta, and more impressive than his two stage wins was finishing 2nd to Phillipe Gilbert on Stage 19’s technical, uphill sprint into Toledo. Don’t forget his 5th place at the Ronde this year, and with a full American team, he could arrive at the finish dressed to impress. Filippo Pozzato will roll across in 3rd place.


Phillipe Gilbert, the by-the-numbers favorite, will play some strong cards late, but get caught. His form will be off, spent too soon on a full-gas Vuelta.


My podium picks:

Gold: Fabian Cancellara

Silver: Tyler Farrar

Third: Filippo Pozzato


Dark Horse:

Edvald Boasson Hagen. He didn’t ride the Vuelta, so hasn’t had the preparation that top favorites have had, but this youngster impresses on the regular. If and countryman Thor Hushovd stay protected and move with the major teams, it’s possible that Boasson Hagen could be the ‘sprinter’ to win from a small group.



Jeremy’s Picks:

In spite of what we saw with the U-23 race, I still think this is a Worlds for the all-rounder/classics type.  Expect them to use the short, steep hills midway through the circuit to wear out the sprinters.  6-7 laps in, look for a small selection of 20 or so riders to make a break stick, and for one of these guys to win from it:


Thor Hushovd: Thor’s tough as nails, and he knows how to read a race. He doesn’t have a strong team, but I don’t think thats going to matter as much as it would if the peloton stuck together.  Uphill finish?  Thor’s got that on lock, take a look at stage 6 of 2009’s Tour de France.  The key to success for him is a selection late in the race, dropping the pure sprinters while leaving him in the mix.  Too early, and I’d give the advantage to…


Philippe Gilbert: The Vuelta saw him in top form.  Question is, did he peak too early?  Given how dominant he was in the races following 2009’s Worlds (Paris-Tours being the most prestigious), I have a hunch he knows where his form will be come Sunday.  Problem is, so do all of his rivals. Look for him to try to push for an early break, in the hopes he can shake guys like Hushovd loose.


Fabian Cancellara: He tried to downplay his form last week, and went on to best everyone in the TT by over a minute.  He’s not fooling anyone, but that’s often the case – once the guy puts his head down and gets in to a rhythm, its hard to stop him.  If he ends up at the front of the race with a couple of laps to go, it’ll be a question of when, not if, he’ll try to go off the front.  If he gets a gap, it could be all over.


My podium picks:

End of the day, I think it’ll come down to a reduced field sprint, with things finishing up as:


Gold: Thor Hushovd

Silver: Philippe Gilbert

Bronze: Tyler Farrar


Dark Horse:

Sylvain Chavanel.  Yeah, this is just me picking a sentimental favorite.  He skipped the Vuelta, and he’s been pretty middling in his preparatory races (Plouay, QP Québec, GP Montréal, etc.) so his form is a bit of an unknown – Jalabert is downplaying his chances, but that could just be tactics.  He’s known for his suicide attacks that inevitably end in failure – except for this year, where he made a few stick.  I’ve also long harbored the view that a French victory would be good for cycling, and we need a little good right about now.


Think you have a better idea of who’s going to win?  Let us know your podium and dark horse pick in the comments!

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2010 UCI World Championships – Men’s Road Race Preview

Posted on October 1, 2010 by


2010 Vuelta a Espana - Gilbert After Stage 19

Fotoreporter Sirotti


Here’s our run-down of the main favorites for Sunday’s World Championship Road Race in Melbourne.  Come back later today from predictions from our contributors.


5-Stone Favorite

Philippe Gilbert

Belgium’s Philippe Gilbert is the unquestioned top favorite heading into Sunday’s Road Race in Melbourne—but that might not be a good thing.  After winning two stages at the Vuelta—both in convincing fashion—Gilbert’s made no attempt at hiding his fitness.  He’ll be heavily marked Sunday and his team will bear the responsibility of controlling the race.  Even worse, there are some who wonder if he’s peaked too soon.  Remember last year when Damiano Cunego won two impressive stages at the Vuelta only to arrive at Worlds a fraction below where he was in Spain?


That said, Gilbert has two things working in his favor.  First, he’s the sole leader of a team composed almost entirely of riders from Gilbert’s trade team, Omega Pharma-Lotto.  Aerts, Hoste, Roelandts, Van Avermaet, and Bakelants are capable domestiques, familiar with Gilbert and his riding style.  This chemistry could make the difference when it matters most.


Most importantly, Gilbert has never been afraid of attacking.  Worlds is often won by a rider willing to take a chance when the favorites are too busy watching another to attack themselves.  Gilbert won’t mark himself out of the race—should he find himself in a select group, he’ll take matters into his own hands.  If he is indeed the strongest rider on the day, there might be little the rest can do other than watch him ride away.


4-Stone Favorites

Filippo Pozzato

Italy’s Filippo Pozzato rode a solid Vuelta, failing to take a stage but placing well on some of the more important days.  After falling short at this year’s Spring Classics, Pozzato’s hoping he can end his season on a high note.  With few exceptions, he leads an Italian squad capable of getting him where he needs to be to take the victory.  He’ll need to find himself in a group select enough to have eliminated the better sprinters, while still having the legs to follow the attacks of men like Gilbert.  Bettini claims he’s not quite in the shape he needs to win—is he bluffing?


Alexandre Kolobnev

Kolobnev has come close to important wins several times over the past two seasons.  After an anonymous but productive Vuelta, the Russian leads a team hoping to win the nation its first elite title since—well, ever!  Kolobnev has finished second twice—in 2007 and 2009—and with a smart and gutsy ride, he could go one better in Australia.  Should the sprinters ride to keep the race together and the attackers mark one another too heavily, Kolobnev could be just the man to jump away for the win.


Tyler Farrar, Matthew Goss, and Thor Hushovd

Farrar, Goss, and Hushovd have similar talents, styles—and prospect for Sunday.  More powerful than pure field sprinters, but less able to follow the sharp accelerations of men like Gilbert and Kolobnev, they’ll be hoping for a selective, but not overly aggressive finale.  Should a smallish peloton hit the final kilometer intact (as in Friday’s U23 road race), look for these men to quickly find their way at the front.  Of the three, Hushovd has the most experience in such a pressure-cooker of a race, but Goss and Farrar have proven their mettle with several quality wins over the course of the season.  An interesting dynamic to watch for: Farrar and Hushovd are future teammates on the new Garmin-Cervelo—could that play a role Sunday?


Peter Velits

Slovkia’s Peter Velits already has one world title to his name—he won the 2007 U23 road race in Stuttgart, Germany.  After a stage win and third place overall finish at the Vuelta, he appears ready to challenge for a another.  If he manages to maintain his Spanish fitness, he’ll be a major contender Sunday—and someone who could easily spoil the plans of the larger national teams.  With Peter Sagan and brother Martin riding in support, Slovakia boasts one of the strongest small teams in the race.  Is another rainbow in Velits’ future?


3-Stone Favorites

Fabian Cancellara

Fabian Cancellara came to Melbourne with one purpose—well two, actually.  After winning his fourth world time trial championship Thursday, Spartacus is halfway to achieving his goal.  After his dominating performance, it appears as if Cancellara knew exactly what he was doing when he dropped-out of the Vuelta before the final weekend.  Has he timed his peak just right, hitting his top fitness just as others are losing theirs?  We’ll soon see, but if he manages to do the double, his season will go down as one of the finest in recent history.


Spain

Spain’s strength could prove to be its biggest weakness, as the nation’s over-abundance of cards to play could produce a perfect case of too many cooks spoiling the rainbow broth.  With Carlos Barredo, Luis Leon Sanchez, Samuel Sanchez, and Oscar Freire all taking the line Sunday, it’s easy to see why we could see a rekindling of the Spanish Civil War.  Freire’s an obvious candidate for the win—especially in the event of a sprint.  He’s been relatively silent since winning Milan-San Remo in March, a fact which—come to think it—might just mean he’s due.


Vincenzo Nibali

With a third-place finish in the Giro to go with his recent overall victory in the Vuelta, Vincenzo Nibali might have been excused for calling it a season by now—but he’s not finished yet.  An aggressive and savvy rider with several one-day victories to his name, Nibali’s an outside threat to win Sunday—if given a long enough leash.  Should Pozzato show any signs of weakness, look for Italian DS Paolo Bettini to make a mid-race change, perhaps giving team leadership to the Sicilian.


Frank Schleck & Nicholas Roche

Until we hear otherwise, Schleck and Roche “officially” finished fifth and seventh in the Vuelta, results that bode well them here.  Schleck leads a small squad of only three men in Melbourne, but before you scoff, remember that this is a man who won the Amstel Gold Race—he knows to handle himself in a one-day event.  As for Roche, his steady progression over the past two years has him poised for a breakout win.  A win Sunday would officially announce the Irishman’s arrival into the sport’s upper echelon.  He would also make history by providing the sport with its first set of father-son world champions.


2-Stone Favorites


Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish

Part of me hopes the race comes down to bunch sprint just for the chance to see Andre Greipel and Mark Cavendish go head-to-head in one of their final races as “teammates”.  Greipel’s team is by far one the strongest in the race; unfortunately, they might lack a rider able to follow the likes of Gilbert, Kolobnev, and Pozzato.  Paul Martens and Tony Martin are the team’s best bets from a breakaway, but in all likelihood the Germans will be doing their best to keep Greipel in contention for a sprint victory.  As for Cavendish, his team starts only three men—a clear disadvantage for Cav. Jeremy Hunt will likely be charged with looking after Boy Racer, while David Millar should be free to try his own hand.  Cavendish surprised us all last year by winning Milan-San Remo—a race many thought was too tough for him.  Can he perform a similar feat Sunday?


1-Stone Favorites

Allan Davis, Matti Breschel, Peter Sagan, Giovanni Visconti, Greg Henderson, and France


Who are your favorites for Sunday?  Share your comments below.

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World Champ By Numbers

Posted on September 30, 2010 by

Rebecca Seltzer/www.rebeccaseltzer.com

Picking favorites for a one day race like the World Championships is tricky.  A cyclist who performs well in late August/early September may be totally out of shape come October.  Riding on to the podium of a race like the Vuelta will leave you in peak condition, but what sort of impact will three weeks of stage racing have on fatigue levels?

Can we use past performances as an indicator of what it takes to win?  Looking at the last 10 road World Champions, there are a few patterns that emerge.

Fotoreporter Sirotti

9/10 World Champions rode the Vuelta

In 1995, the Vuelta was moved to September, and the Worlds were moved to October.  This made the Vuelta the perfect race to build form for a late September/October campaign.  Before 1995, the Worlds were in August, making it a well-timed race for Tour de France riders, and a target for greats like Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Greg Lemond.  These days, it seems like the one-day specialists have a lock on the race.

Only one champion of the last 10 (Romans Vainsteins, 2000)- and an additional 2  (Óscar Freire 1999, Johan Museeuw 1996) since 1995 haven’t ridden the Vuelta.

Is riding the Vuelta the only way to prepare?  Probably not, but its certainly a proven method.



Fotoreporter Sirotti

6/10 World Champions won stages at the Vuelta

There’s no hiding form.  6 out of 10 World champs won at least 1 stage at the Vuelta.  Some won more.  If you loosen those requirements a little, 8 our of the 9 Vuelta riding WC’s finished in the top three in one or more stages.

Mario Cipollini won 3 stages in the Vuelta before winning the Worlds in 2002.  Paoli Bettini took a Vuelta stage before each of his wins (2006, 2007), and Alessando Ballan took one before his (2008).   Freire won a stage in 2004, and podium’d in 2001.  Others were a little more subtle; Cadel Evans took a few 3rd places en route to winning the overall 3rd place in the Vuelta (2009), and Tom Boonen came in third just once.

Only Igor Astarloa failed to win or podium on a stage.





Fotoreporter Sirotti

8/10 World Champion’s DNF’d the Vuelta

And while there’s no hiding it, form is fickle.  Peak too early, and you’ll either lose form or overtrain by the time you reach the Worlds.  Back off on training at the wrong time, and you’ll head to the worlds with less than perfect form.

Only Cadel Evans rode the Vuelta to completion, ultimately finishing on the bottom step of the podium.  Every other World Champion Vuelta rider dropped out at some point.  Some dropped out earlier than others, but the last few champions have dropped out somewhere between stages 13 and 17, in order to avoid complete fatigue brought on by the killer hills of the Vuelta.

Dropping out early seems to be part of the Italian Worlds playbook.  Cipollini, Bettini and Ballan all dropped out of the Vuelta – Cipollini did so after stage 7, making his 3 wins even more impressive.  Bettini dropped out before stage 18 for both his wins, and Ballan bailed after stage 15.  Freire 2001 was a stage 15 dropout, Freire 2004 bailed during stage 12, Tom Boonen hung in through stage 13, and Astarloa called it quits during stage 11.


Kent Williams @ procyclingphotos.com

9/10 World Champion’s had full (or close) teams

The rainbow jersey isn’t won without help.  9 out of 10 world champions, Romans Vainsteins again being the notable exception, rode with more than the minimum allowed complement of riders on their teams.  Team sizes have changed over the years, settling on 9 in 2005. The extremes have been mitigated – Vainsteins won on a team of 3, while many of his competitors were on teams of 12.

Some teammates were unequivocally devoted to delivering their compatriot a win, as was the case with the Squadra Azzurra victories of Cipollini and Bettini.  Others didn’t necessarily have total support going in to the race.

Regardless,  the more team mates you have, the more likely it is you’ll have someone to shield you from the wind, or act as a leadout man in the final sprint.



Where’s that leave us for 2010?

2010 Tour de France - Hushovd Wins Stage 3

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Only one rider hits all four markers – rode the Vuelta, won a stage, dropped out, and has a non-minimal team.  That rider is Thor Hushovd.  Thor’s been talking about the World’s being one of his major goals for 2010.  He dropped out after stage 16, quietly suggesting his form was where he wanted it to be headed in to the World’s, and he didn’t want to lose it.

Hushovd’s still thought of as a sprinter – being a two (maybe someday three…) time winner of the points jersey hasn’t helped dispel that – but at this point in his career, he’s really a classics/technical finish specialist, with a knack for taking advantage of the weaknesses of the pure sprinters.  He’s no mountain goat, but he thrives in the sort of power-climb environment that this years Worlds profile seems to offer.

…And Norway’s team, which was originally supposed to be 5, is down to 3. I still think Thor’s the best situated by numbers – his Vuelta stage win had the same sort of selection-forcing climbing in the later kilometers, and he skipped that last week of the Vuelta. He should be fresh, and given his ability to read a race, should be able to stick with the other favorites to keep in contention.

Who else?

Four riders hit important markers – rode the Vuelta, win a stage, have a good sized team.  Gilbert, Farrar, Erviti and Barredo.

2010 Vuelta Espana - Gilbert in Red Jersey After Stage 3

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Gilbert is on just about everyones list for top contender this year.  He was there until the end in last year’s championships, and outperformed everyone in October.  If Cadel’s win salvaged the season for Lotto-Predictor, Gilbert made it almost respectable.  This year, he notched two dominant wins in the Vuelta, and looks poised to have another great fall.

Farrar won two stages of the Vuelta as well – one while going toe-to-toe with a less than humble Mark Cavendish.  Farrar may be able to take advantage of the uphill finish in the last few kilometers of the Geelong

2010 Vuelta a Espana - Farrar Wins Stage 21

Fotoreporter Sirotti

circuit – unlike many sprinters, he seems to do well when the road tilts upward a little bit.

Erviti and Barredo each notched a win in the Vuelta.  Barredo is best known for assaulting another rider with his wheel at this years Tour de France.  Erviti has won a couple of Vuelta stages.  Both will be riding in support of Óscar Freire and/or Sammy Sanchez.  Neither of them would make for an obvious choice for Worlds, but the same could be said for a number of winners over the last 10 years – never underestimate the unsung heroes of the peloton.


Is that it?

Another 15 riders meet some of the markers.

Mark Cavendish and Peter Velits both won stages in the Vuelta, but will be riding on minimally sized squads.

Filippo Pozzato and Fabian Cancellara both had top three finishes, and dropped out of the race early to focus on Worlds.

Vincenzo Nibali, Daniele Bennati, Allan Davis, Matt Goss, Greg van Avermaet and Kevin de Weert all had top three finishes, and will be riding on full sized teams

Finally, Grega Bole, Martin Velits, Manuel Cardoso, Frank Schleck and JJ Haedo all top-three’d, and will be riding with reduced squads.

Predictions?

I predict I can find a stat to support any eventual outcome.  I don’t feel I’m making a particularly bold statement by saying I think the winner will be one of the 20 guys mentioned in this article.  You’ll have to wait until tomorrow for specifics, when we’ll publish the Pavé staff picks for the race!

Are stats total bunk, best left to talking heads looking to fill time between commercials for auto-tinting lenses?  Or do past performances work as an indicator for something complex like bike racing?  Let us know!

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