The Tour – far from over

Posted on July 9, 2012 by

Check out Whit’s latest post over at Bicycling – Analysis: The Tour Is Far From Over.

Posted in Races | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

RadioShack-Nissan looks like it is crumbling

Posted on July 7, 2012 by

Photo courtesy Radio Shack-Nissan-Trek

There have been a bunch of signs that RadioShack-Nissan has been coming apart at the seams. Johan Bruyneel and Frank Schleck clashing, with Bruyneel sending Schleck to the Giro in an apparent attempt to split up Frank and Andy; Frank pulling out of the Giro and trading barbs with Bruyneel through press officers; Bruyneel being a part of the USADA investigation into Lance Armstrong; Jakob Fuglsang’s public displeasure with team management; rumors that RadioShack-Nissan hasn’t been paying some of its riders; and rumors that Kim Anderson is quietly setting up a new team, Alpecin-Trek, to be built around the Schlecks (call it Leopard Part II?).

Writing them all down, it really starts to come together. But the real clincher was something that was reported following yesterday’s Stage 6 – after the big crash, Frank Schleck “found that only one teammate – Yaroslav Popovych – had remained with him.”

Now, there could be a bunch of reasons for the things listed in the first paragraph – things that armchair commentators aren’t privy to. And it could be that Popovych was, truly, the only rider capable of waiting for Frank, for whatever reason.

But put them all together and a compelling story emerges, bound together by an egregious sign of a team that is coming apart at the seams and rife with divisions – abandoning their protected rider during the world’s biggest bike race.

Posted in Races, Teams | 1 Comment

The Virtual General Classification

Posted on July 6, 2012 by

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Phil Liggett, at the culmination of Stage 6, said that there were “no changes” in the GC standings and that the “men who mattered” were “up there.” Sure, Cancellara – the yellow jersey – was joined by a handful of GC contenders who stayed safe from a gutter-to-gutter crash that split the field with 24k to go and caught many GC riders behind it today. The biggest names who didn’t lose time were Evans, Wiggins, and Menchov – who, it must be said, needs to be considered a serious GC podium threat.

But a look at the General Classification shows a number of riders who can no longer be considered GC hopefuls due to having lost major time in today’s crash.

Below is the Virtual Classification – the classification of GC-hopefuls, with Cancellara left in out of deference to the Yellow Jersey, and their current overall placing on the left column:

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) RadioShack-Nissan 29:22:36
2 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07
5 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:13
6 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:00:17
7 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:18
17 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto Belisol Team 0:00:28
18 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:29
20 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel – Euskadi 0:00:40
21 Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa (Por) Movistar Team 0:00:42
22 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Omega Pharma-QuickStep 0:00:45
31 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Astana Pro Team 0:02:27
34 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team 0:02:40
36 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre – ISD 0:02:42
37 Frank Schleck (Lux) RadioShack-Nissan 0:02:43
40 Pierre Rolland (Fra) Team Europcar 0:02:50
51 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:13
108 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin – Sharp 0:13:38

The shake-up of Stage 6’s crash balances the equation between climbers and GC hopefuls. Many of the riders who lost major time – Schleck, Scarponi, and others – are riders who would have needed to attack Wiggins, Menchov, and Evans in the mountains in order to gain time. With those riders dangling 2+ minutes behind the leaders, the likelihood that they can be considered serious GC threats lowers, considerably.

What happens when a rider’s GC ambitions are squashed? They salvage their Tour by taking rips at stage wins. We might see two distinct groups forming on the road – climbers who were former GC hopefuls, lighting up the road looking for stage wins, and the genuine GC contenders watching each other. Evans and Wiggins, in particular, are quite savvy. They are not likely to waste energy chasing, say, Frank Schleck, when they know they’ll make up time on him in a time trial. With three individual time trials and only three summit finishes, the Tour’s moderate parcours already raised the question of whether or not climbing specialists could truly challenge the all-arounders like Wiggins, Menchov, and Evans. This crash furthered the divide – possibly, enough to give riders some room to make for some very exciting stages.

Follow mattio on Twitter @_mattio.

Posted in Races | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

On Sagan

Posted on July 6, 2012 by

Fotoreporter Sirotti

This Tour’s biggest debutante is Peter Sagan, who’s been winning races for the past two years and at the young age of 22 has stepped to the big stage and acquitted himself well, with three stage wins in the first week. He’s gone head-to-head against guys like Greipel and Goss, and has worn the green jersey through the Tour’s first week. He’s well-touted as the next Big Name Sprinter, possibly the first dominant one to emerge in the Cavendish era.

I say no.

He’s done well in bunch sprints but has had difficulty finding his placing in whole-field bunch sprints ths Tour. Obviously he’s got the engine for racing like that – a deep, long power that can be turned to the demands of a sprint’s final kilometer (see, to wit, Phillipe Gilbert’s sprint placings in the Green Jersey during last year’s Tour, and Cancellara’s fourth place in the World Championship last year) – but it may be a racing maturity issue, or something difficult to assess. He’s far more comfortable and capable when the field of sprinters is trimmed down a bit. A smaller bunch sprint in the Tour, or lesser races (basically, nearly any other race).

So sure, he could be a seriously dominant field sprinter. But I say no. Actually, I plead no.

Sagan is showing flashes of brilliance well outside the scope of a sprinter. He followed and then easily outkicked Fabian Cancellara on Stage 1. In other races he’s acquitted himself well in breakaways, he’s attacked over climbs. People are calling him the next Gilbert, or even the second coming of Merckx himself. Let’s root for him to develop like that – develop the long, deep fitness that is suited to classics, to incredible one-day races instead of to that high-speed final kilometer.

No disrespect to sprinters. And clearly Sagan can sprint. But I hope to see a lot more from his burgeoning career.

Follow mattio on Twitter @_mattio.

Posted in Races | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Tour de France 2012: Whit’s prologue winners/losers and stage 1 preview

Posted on June 30, 2012 by

The bulk of Whit’s Tour de France related writing over the next 3 weeks will be on the Bicycling Magazine website. We’d be remiss if we didn’t do a good job of letting you know when he’s got new content up there, so look for an occasional post when there’s something to see.

His first two posts of the Tour:

Prologue Winners and Losers

2012 Tour de France Stage 1 Preview

Posted in Races | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Tour de France 2012 Team Preview: Vacansoleil-DCM

Posted on June 29, 2012 by

Photo copyright Vacansoleil-DCM/Cor Vos

I wonder how badly Vacansoleil regrets Thomas DeGendt’s decision to schedule his wedding during this year’s Tour de France after his incredible stage victory and third-place finish in the Giro d’Italia. But life must go on and Vacansoliel has a Tour de France to complete—with or without the team’s exciting Belgian star.

Like several teams in this year’s race without a true GC candidate or field sprinter, Vacansoleil has simply picked the nine best riders available at this point in the season.

Johnny Hoogerland is the team’s spiritual leader. An aggressive, but somewhat foolhardy rider, the Ductchman might benefit from learning to choose his battles a bit more wisely. An early candidate to take the polka dot jersey as King of the Mountains, Hoogerland’s an ideal candidate for a day-long breakaway during Stage 8, a stage with seven categorized climbs with enough KOM points on offer to give someone a hefty lead before the race hits the Alps.

On flatter days, Vacansoleil will leave the sprinting up to Kenny Van Hummel and Kris Boeckmans. Van Hummel has raced the Tour before—unfortunately, he left his biggest mark while “contending” for the Lanterne Rouge in 2009 (at least before abandoning during Stage 17).

Lieuwe Westra won a stage and finished second overall to Bradley Wiggins at Paris-Nice earlier this year. While Rob Ruijgh returns to the Tour de France hoping to improve upon his 20th-place finish last year.

By the time it’s all said and done, the success of Vacansoleil’s Tour will hinge upon the team’s ability to cover breakways and hopefully win a stage or two. And if they can’t DeGendt will certainly be back next year.

Man of the Hour

All of them. On a team with no clear captain, each rider will get his chance to be the Man of the Hour for Vacansoleil, while a stage win would make him the “Man of the Race”.

Up-and-Comer

Wout Poels finished 17th in last year’s Tour of Spain including three top-5 results on summit finishes. Let’s see if he can duplicate that success at the Tour.

On the Hot Seat

Even though he failed to make Vacansoliel’s Tour roster, is it unfair of me mention Stijn Devolder?

Unsung Hero

Gustav Erik Larsson is a time trial specialist and bears mentioning in a Tour de France with three of them. Larsson won the Prologue at Paris-Nice earlier this season and is a dark horse candidate to take the first yellow jersey of the race this Saturday in Liege.

Follow Whit on Twitter at @whityost

Posted in Races, Teams | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment