Monday Musette – Dauphiné Wrap-up, Swiss, and More

Posted on June 14, 2010 by

1. The 2010 Critérium du Dauphiné concluded yesterday with Slovenain Janez Brajkovic taking Radio Shack’s first big win of the season—and perhaps more importantly, he did it by beating Astana’s Alberto Contador. Although Brajkovic’s been a professional for 5 seasons, he’s only 26-years old—his best years are clearly still ahead of him.  He won the race in textbook fashion: a top-5 prologue followed by a win in the ITT and a successful defense of the leader’s jersey in the mountains. Lance must be proud.

Here’s my question: does Armstrong have cause to worry that his younger teammate might steal his thunder come July? 

2. As for Contador, he’s right on schedule for a successful defense of his Tour title next month.  Some are trying to cast doubt on the Spaniard’s fitness, but I think he’s right where he needs to be in order to peak for the Tour’s second and third weeks.  Better still, his team seems to be rising to the occasion as well.  At times during several of the race’s tougher moments, Contador had two or three teammates with him compared to Brajkovic’s one or two.  With another two or three weeks of good hard training and some time to grow more accustomed to his new TT bike, Contador should be fine in July.

3. While it might be a bit early to say so, I’m starting to think Tejay Van Garderen is the USA’s next great stage race hope—and not in a Tom Danielson kind of way either.  Van Garderen’s proven himself as an amateur in Europe, and finished 2nd in another important French stage race last season, the Tour de l’Avenir.  Van Garderen seems unfazed when racing in a country where just about every GC leader’s jersey is yellow.  With a terrific organization backing him, look for Van Garderen to steadily progress through the ranks—he’ll get his first shot at a Grand Tour in this autumn’s Tour of Spain.

4. Belgian Jurgen Vandenbroeck took a solid 4th-place, making him Belgium’s first legitimate top-10 contender in the Tour de France since…

VDBk rode with a confidence that speaks volumes about his ability to lead his Omega Pharma-Lotto team; on Alpe d’Huez he even attacked—something we haven’t seen from a Belgian grand tour favorite since…

5. As for Rabobank’s Denis Menchov—his Alpe d’Huez performance notwithstanding—I think it’s safe to put him back on the list of favorites for July—unless there’s rain during the Prologue.

6. Other impressive rides were registered by youngsters Romain Sicard, Branislav Samoilau, and Thibault Pinot from Euskaltel, Quick Step, and FDJ, respectively.  None of the three is likely to be riding the Tour this summer, but their performances bode well for the future.

7. It’s too bad that Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boasson Hagen had to wait until Sunday to win their first major races of the season—it’s good to have them back.

8. In other news, it’s looking like the organizers of the Tour de Suisse gave Fabian Cancellara quite a gift in creating this year’s parcours.  Today’s Stage 3 was effectively the only “summit” finish of the weeklong Tour—if you consider a 2-kilometer climb with an 11% grade climb to the finish.  The event’s Queen Stage is Thursday’s Stage 6, a 213-kilometer slugfest featuring one first category and two hors categorie ascents.  But don’t get your hopes up—the stage finishes after about 15 kilometers of descending following the HC climb of the Albulapass.  The stage will test Cancellara’s climbing legs, but with the strongest team in the race and a long-ish ITT on the final day, it might be hard for the competition to deny him another win in his home tour.

That said, my pick for the overall title—Tony Martin—just took the leader’s jersey today.  If he can gain more time between now and Sunday’s ITT, he’s the one rider capable of limiting his losses enough to unseat Cancellara from his throne. 

9. In terms of the Tour de France, several men bear watching in Switzerland this week.  For instance, Stage 1 gave us our latest chance to see if Lance Armstrong is ready to challenge the favorites at this year’s Tour.  If Saturday’s 7.6 kilometer ITT is any indicator, the answer is “no”.  Lance finished 44th—almost half a minute down.  Even Andy Schleck beat him.

And yes, there’s a difference between saying Contador’s defeat is nothing to get worked-up about while stating that Armstrong’s is cause for concern.  Contador is at about 90% of his top fitness, I reckon—the difference might have been enough for him to win the Dauphiné’s long ITT or perhaps drop the rest on Alpe d’Huez.  Had Armstrong finished a few seconds off the pace Saturday, we would consider him on-track for the Tour as well.  But he didn’t.  No matter how you slice it, losing 29 seconds over 7.6 kilometers is just not something we have come to expect from a Tour contender at this point in the season—especially one known for his time trialing.  In Lance’s defense, there was rain, and several other favorites recorded poor times including David Zabriskie, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Christian Vande Velde.

10. Last but not least, what do you make of today’s announcement of the teams invited to the Vuelta?  Is Radio Shack starting to feel the fallout from Landisgate?  And what does Vacansoleil have to do to earn an invitation to a grand tour?

11. In closing, I’ll leave you with this.  (Warning: it’s graphic.)  Thoughts?

Have a great day—and share your comments below.  What did you take away from the Dauphiné?  What do you think about this week’s Tour de Suisse?

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Weekend Preview РThe Dauphin̩ and the Tour of Switzerland

Posted on June 11, 2010 by

The Criterium du Dauphiné wraps-up this weekend with two “legendary” stages in the Alps. Saturday’s the most difficult of the two, taking the riders over 3 categorized climbs—including the hors categorie Col du Glandon—before finishing atop the infamous Alpe-d’Huez. The stage should finalize the top of the general classification. If it doesn’t, Sunday offers an interesting parcours as well, ending with 5 laps in Sallanches—site of the 1980 World Championships and arguably one of the toughest courses in World Championship history. If small gaps remain following Saturday’s slug-fest, look for aggressive action Sunday.
Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic sits comfortably atop the GC, with a 1:41 lead over his main rival, Alberto Contador. Denis Menchov and Jurgen Vandenbroeck are riding well at the moment; they lurk dangerously close at 2:55 and 3:06 respectively. While it appears unlikely these two will unseat the men from Radio Shack and Astana, their performances deserve noting in advance of the Tour de France. Other impressive rides have been put in by Tejay Van Garderen—he sits in second-place at 1:15—and Reine Taaramae—he’s in tenth-place at 3:28.

It’s looking like Brajkovic and his team have what it takes to hold Contador at bay—tomorrow’s finale should provide some exciting fireworks as the men within shouting distance take their shots. The day will be a good test for both teams—does Astana have what it takes to win when racing from behind?

Tomorrow also sees the start of the Tour of Switzerland—the other important Tour de France preparation event. If a start list is any indicator, the Tour de Suisse is overwhelmingly the preferred pre-Tour test. Several teams are bringing the bulk of their Tour rosters; only Contador, Menchov, Vandenbroeck, Evans, Basso, Nibali, and Wiggins won’t be taking part. A day longer than the Dauphiné, the TdS seems to have a slightly easier parcours with no major summit finishes and less time trialing than the Dauphiné. That said, this is the Tour of Switzerland we’re talking about—it’s certain to be intensely competitive.

Fabian Cancellara would love to defend his title from last year—doing it while wearing the jersey of Swiss national champion would be an added bonus. Saxo’s bringing the team he needs to do it, with both Schlecks and Jens Voigt lending firepower to the challenge. The TdS will also be our last chance to gauge Lance Armstrong’s fitness prior to the Tour de France. Is he really back on track—or does he still have work to do? We’ll know by next Sunday.

We’ll also get our first opportunity to see Tom Boonen, Mark Cavendish, and Thor Hushovd battle head-to-head this season (at least I think so). Oscar Freire’s coming too—giving us a terrific preview of some of the main contenders for this July’s green jersey.

Personally, I’m eager to see how well Christian Vande Velde has recovered from his crash in the Giro, as well as the extent to which young guns Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink will be contenders in next month’s Grand Boucle.

And my pick for the winner? I think Tony Martin takes it with a powerful time trial on the last day. Cancellara will be close, but he’ll have one tough day in the hills, giving Martin the gap he needs to take the win.

What about you? Who are your picks for the weekend’s events? What do you hope the race will reveal in advance of this year’s Tour?

Share your comments below.

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Monday Musette – Weekend Racing, Doing the Double, and Transfers

Posted on June 7, 2010 by

Here’s this week’s Musette—finally on the proper day too!

1. The renamed Criterium du Dauphiné kicked-off yesterday with a 6.8-kilometer Prologue in Evian-les-Bains. Alberto Contador won the event over young American Tejay Van Garderen and Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic. While Contador’s win was impressive, he was quick to play it down, bluntly stating he has no intention of defending the jersey.

Contador’s victory was hardly a shock, but several Prologue performances were, including David Millar and Denis Menchov losing 15 and 25 seconds respectively. While Ivan Basso illustrated at this year’s Giro that coming to a grand tour a bit under form can benefit a rider in a tough final week, it’s hard to see Menchov having such luck similar given his shaky track record in le Grand Boucle.

That said, there’s still a lot of racing left. With no true field sprinters and an aggressive parcours, we should see an exciting race for the yellow jersey as more than a few men stand a chance to wrestle it from Contador’s shoulders before the long time trial Wednesday. Stay tuned.

2. The Tour of Luxembourg finished yesterday with Vacansoleil’s Matteo Carrara taking a close win over Frank Schleck. Radio Shack’s Lance Armstrong finished third and promptly declared himself back on track for the Tour. Really Lance? You’ve missed about 10 days of racing, been sick, crashed on your face, and are currently facing the most serious doping accusations of your career. How do 5 days in Luxembourg suddenly put you back on track?

3. Speaking of on-track, HTC-Columbia’s Matthew Goss won yesterday’s TD Bank Philadelphia International Cycling Championship (the TDBPICC, for short). Interestingly, lost in the Cavendish-Greipel feud has been the quiet evolution of Goss into one of the world’s best up-and-coming field sprinters. He took a stage in the Giro last month and now hard-fought win in Philly. Goss should make it easier for HTC to let Greipel go this coming off-season; he gives HTC a second sprinter to bring wins in races Cavendish doesn’t attend. If Greipel can’t keep his mouth shut—which he won’t if he’s left home from the Tour again—look for Goss to get a Vuelta start in his place. Remember, this is an HTC-Columbia team that was rumored to have sat riders at the end of last season after they had reportedly signed deals elsewhere. Just sayin’.

4. It looks like Heinrich Haussler has put his knee troubles behind him. A good friend and I have long maintained a theory that the best homeopathic remedy—for anything—is crashing a car.  Looks like Haussler might agree.

5. I’ll admit I was a bit shocked to read about Ivan Basso’s plans to attempt the Giro/Tour Double. Do you think he can do it? The last one to accomplish the feat was an Italian—Marco Pantani in 1998—but with Kreuziger, Nibali, and Basso in the mix, I can’t help but think Liquigas might have too many cooks and not enough pots to go around.

6. And last but not least, last week showed us all that it’s never too early to start talking about next year, with rumors on several possible transfers hitting the news.

Stijn Devolder seems to be a popular choice for many teams with Radio Shack and Vacansoleil looking to be the most likely destinations for the Belgian star. I’ve been predicting a Lance-Devolder reunion at the Shack since last summer—does Vacansoleil really have a deal made or is Devolder’s agent just trying to raise Radio Shack’s offer? And if Devolder does indeed land with the Dutch team, what does that mean for Bjorn Leukemans?

Another report has surfaced claiming Alberto Contador will be joining the Spanish Caisse d’Epargne team next season with a hefty 4-year contract. (Luis Leon Sanchez has to be going crazy by now.) That’s funny considering Caisse d’Epargne has yet to announce a new title sponsor. Will he bring Specialized with him—hard to see that happening as the team’s have been riding Pinnarello’s for as long as I can remember.

And finally, Fabian Cancellara’s rumored to be heading elsewhere too, given the lack of an official announcement from Bjarne Riis. I assume this is yet another ploy; it allows Bjarne Riis to pressure his potential suitors into closing the deal, lest they risk losing Cancellara to someone else.

Which transfer do you expect to make the most headlines over the coming weeks?

Share your comments below!

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Monday Musette – Giro, Belgium, Motors, Etc…

Posted on June 1, 2010 by

Yesterday was Memorial Day—the unofficial first day of summer—and I took advantage of a day-off from work to indulge–and ride. Here’s this week’s Musette.

1. It’s hard to believe this year’s Giro has come and gone—but it has. Credit Ivan Basso for quickly one-upping Alexander Vinokourov’s win in L-B-L with a grand tour win following his 2-year suspension—I’ll admit I was surprised. Before the race, things looked a bit dire for Liquigas. Franco Pellizotti was suspended, Nibali was a last-minute addition, and Basso was admittedly a bit behind in his preparation. In hindsight, everything worked-out perfectly for the men in green: Nibali was a perfect lieutenant, and Basso was able to ride himself into winning-form by the time the race entered its final, difficult week. Even better, he was able to do so confident in the knowledge that he was his team’s undisputed leader.

Now the big question for Liquigas is Vincenzo Nibali. Will he recover from his 3rd-place in time for another top performance in the Tour; or will his efforts have relegated him to uber-lieutenant to Roman Kreuziger. Time will tell, but I’m hopeful Nibali can rebound in time to give Italy a legitimate podium contender in July.

As for David Arroyo, he did everything he needed to in order to defend his spot on the final podium—too bad the achievement was overshadowed by the suspension of his teammate.

2. Cadel Evans once again fell short of winning a grand tour. While I thought he had the confidence and the fitness to win the race, it’s now obvious that Evans is more suited to one-day classics and short stage races. Still, I think he might have one last chance for grand tour glory at this year’s Vuelta.

Were I running BMC, I’d send him to the Dauphiné—aside from a certain Spaniard, there’s a relatively weak field competing and he Evans take an important victory. Then I would rest him during the Tour or send him only for training and stage wins. Following a post-Tour vacation, he can then build for the Vuelta—a race he can win without Valverde taking part—and Worlds in Australia.

It’s a pretty straightforward plan, but it hinges upon one minor concept: relinquishing the Tour dream. Cadel’s still at the peak of his career—how long can he continue to waste time chasing races he has virtually no shot of winning?

3. In other national tour news, bad weather and a puncture kept Philippe Gilbert from winning the Tour of Belgium. Imagine that! Bad weather and punctures in Belgium? 

4. Speaking of the ToB, Stijn Devolder took the overall win—maybe his time in the wind tunnel made a difference. I wonder if his win—plus a possible second Belgian Championship—will be enough for him to keep his spot with Quick Step. Then again, does he even want a spot with Quick Step?

5. In other racing news, the Tour of Luxembourg begins tomorrow, marking Lance Armstrong’s return to racing following his (un)timely crash in the Tour of California. Lance is quickly running out of time for peak Tour fitness. Luxembourg and Switzerland are his last two dates before July. My money’s on Frank Schleck, Andreas Kloden, and Giovanni Visconti to constitute the top-3.

6. Did you see that BMC’s Alessandro Ballan’s snuck onto the early start list for the Tour of Switzerland? Did I miss something?

7. I sometimes have a tough time explaining the difference between irony and coincidence to high school students. So I leave this one up to you: was the timing of Valverde’s suspension announcement ironic or coincidental? Discuss.

8. And by the way, I was only kidding when I hinted about it last week, but apparently some have taken the ball and started running with the motorized doping/boosting/cheating story—the conspiracy theory seems to be gaining momentum. Here’s a handy video that explains everything you need to know:

Would Davide Cassani have been so quick to throw stones had Pozzato won a cobbled monument? Regardless, it’s a spooky concept. I look forward to seeing what the UCI does to combat the threat—I bet it’s hilarious!

9. In related news, I’m pleased to announce that Pavé has become the official US importer for the Gruber Assist. (There’s something about a goat with wings that I think will look swell on our next jersey.)

Enjoy your week!

Share your comments below.

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Weekend Preview – The Giro’s Big Finale

Posted on May 28, 2010 by

For a few minutes today, it looked as if David Arroyo just might have retained his maglia rosa as the leader of the 2010 Giro d’Italia. After the descent of the Mortirolo, he sat less than a minute behind a 3-man breakaway containing Ivan Basso, Vincenzo Nibali, and Michele Scarponi. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off for the Spaniard on the final ascent to Aprica; he lost over three minutes to the leading trio—and the maglia rosa.

The race now heads into its final weekend with Ivan Basso as overall leader. Arroyo sits second and Nibali third, at 0:51 and 2:30 respectively. Only Scarponi remains within shouting distance of the podium, 2:49 behind Basso. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and Alexandre Vinokourov all sit over 4-minutes from the lead.

Saturday’s stage appears to be the hardest of this year’s race—and quite possibly one of the hardest days of racing this season. The riders face 5 categorized climbs during a 178-kilometer day that ends with a 12-kilomter climb up the Passo Tonale—the 5th summit finish the race has seen this week. But the Tonale’s not the worst part of Saturday’s stage; the infamous Gavia is the penultimate climb of the day—and the highest point of this year’s race.

Liquigas did itself a favor by taking the pink jersey today, giving themselves the chance to ride defensively Saturday. They don’t need to attack; they must only control the race, preventing dangerous escapes from threatening Basso’s lead. At this point, Arroyo is probably more concerned with maintaining his spot on the podium than re-taking the maglia rosa.

Look for the real race tomorrow to take place between Scarponi and Arroyo. Arroyo looked quite cooked by the end of Friday’s Stage 19. If Scarponi wants a spot on the final podium he has a better chance of dislodging Arroyo than Nibali—look for him to try and isolate Arroyo on the Gavia, possibly taking Nibali and Basso with him to replicate the finish we saw today.

There’s a better chance we’ll see a breakaway distance itself early with perhaps a rider or two from the day’s early move holding-on for the win. Look for someone like Cunego, Garzelli, or Samoliau to be given a bit of latitude to take the last road stage of the race.

As for Sunday, the 15-kilometer time trial around Verona shouldn’t reveal too many surprises. Richie Porte has enjoyed a fantastic Giro and could cap it with a win. Marco Pinotti would also love to end his race with a stage win in front of his home crowd. Nibali might use the stage to vault himself into second—especially if Arroyo loses more time Saturday. And don’t forget Vino and Evans; if they’re within seconds of a higher GC-placing, look for them post impressive rides—if they have anything left after Saturday, that is.

All in all, while Friday stole a bit of the show, the final two days will prove to be anything but meaningless. Here’s how I see things turning-out:

1st Place: Ivan Basso
2nd Place: Vincenzo Nibali
3rd Place: Michele Scarponi

Enjoy the weekend—and share your picks below.

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Monday Musette – Wednesday Edition

Posted on May 26, 2010 by

I guess I’m still a bit jet-lagged from my trip out west. Here’s the week’s Musette:

1. The Giro has blown wide open—sort of. Monte Zoncolan and the Plan de Corones have started the reshuffling of the general classification, but there’s still some ground to be made up if the men favored to win the race are to assume their places at the top of the classification. Caisse d’Epargne’s David Arroyo has proven to be a stubborn maglia rosa, fighting valiantly to maintain his lead. Don’t forget: Arroyo finished 10th-overall last year, and only needs to react to maintain his placing. If he takes the race one day at a time between now and Sunday, following attacks and riding within himself to limit his losses if dropped, we might have a surprise winner come Sunday.

Ivan Basso and Cadel Evans appear to be the biggest threats to Arroyo’s lead; they sit 2:27 and 3:09 behind the Spaniard. That said neither of the two seem willing or able to take the race by the horns, so to speak. Evans lost some time Sunday, but regained it yesterday in the mountain ITT. This might come all the way down to Sunday—an ITT that favors Evans; or it could come down to the rider with the strongest team—Basso and Liquigas. And while we’re at it, let’s credit Richie Porte for a fantastic ride. He sits in 3rd-place at the moment; should he make it through Saturday without losing too much time we could see him use Sunday’s ITT to score a final placing inside the top-5.

As for Italy, the nation’s hopes lie with Basso and his talented Liquigas team. They’ve turned things around since Pozzato’s stage win, taking 3 impressive wins in the mountains. That said, with Basso hitting his top form at the right time, anything less than an overall title will be a disappointment.

2. Heading West, we got the Tour of California we thought we would, with Michael Rogers taking a close win over David Zabriskie and Levi Leipheimer. The race proved to be more animated than expected, making it ideal training for several stars looking for a good Tour de France this July. I was in California for the first few days of the race—look for a bit of a report sometime soon.

3. Did you hear that Denis Menchov dropped-out of today’s first stage of the Tour of Belgium? Talk about feast or famine. When Menchov’s on, he’s really on; but when he’s off, it’s almost embarrassing. If we don’t see anything by the end of the Dauphiné I think it’s safe to write him off as a threat in this year’s Tour.

4. And speaking of the Tour of Belgium, Philippe Gilbert won the rainy and windy Stage 1. Looks like he’s picking up right where he left off in April. I smell a new jersey in his future as Champion of Belgium.

5. From racing to doping: I’m still trying to wrap my head around the Landis accusations. Joe Lindsey’s done his usual fine job of putting some thoughts down over at the Boulder Report. It looks like this is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better. The Feds are involved now, and they’re talking about fraud—a word that’s not thrown around unless someone’s taking Landis’ story very seriously.

As for me, I was a Floyd supporter when he tested positive in the 2006 Tour. I knew him well at Mercury-Viatel in 2001 and found him to be a clean, honorable guy. My colleagues and I silently wondered what his move to US Postal would do for his career. I had hoped his preparation wouldn’t change—clearly I was wrong. It’s a shame he didn’t have the courage in 2006 to say what he said last week; he might have been spared the skepticism he’s currently facing.

6. From blood to motors: read this; then watch this. Are you thinking what I’m thinking?

7. And take a look at this video. Does anyone else wonder if Lance is playing it up for the camera? Can he really be this insecure?  Notice the photographer grabbing the WSJ money-shot right as Lance scrapes himself off the deck.  

8. Last but not least, I’m thinking of getting a new bike. Any suggestions?

Share your comments, insights, and feedback below. Who is your pick for Giro? What did you think of this year’s ATOC? And what are we to make of Landis and Armstrong?

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