Here’s a link to a USA-friendly live stream of today’s Queen of the Classics, Paris-Roubaix.
Follow us on Twitter for live commentary!
Enjoy!
Here’s a link to a USA-friendly live stream of today’s Queen of the Classics, Paris-Roubaix.
Follow us on Twitter for live commentary!
Enjoy!
And you thought I’d leave you without a prediction. In fact, I have two:
My heart wants a win for either George Hincapie or Filippo Pozzato, with Hincapie getting the nod because he’s running out of time for it. I want him to win solo, with time to savor the moment. Post-race, we’ll see a long line of defeated men waiting patiently to shake his hand.
Result:
1. George Hincapie
2. Tom Boonen
3. Fabian Cancellara
4. Juan Antonio Flecha
5. Matti Breschel
However, my head thinks the win goes to Juan Antonio Flecha, after taking advantage of a moment of hesitation from Cancellara and Boonen. Boonen will take the sprint for second, but the day will belong to Spain and Team Sky.
Result:
1. Juan Antonio Flecha
2. Tom Boonen
3. Fabian Cancellara
4. Manuel Quinziato
5. George Hincapie
And you? What does your heart feel and head think will be the result of tomorrow’s race? Share your comments, below.
While last year I took an early stab at predicting the favorites for this year’s race, I’ve saved the real Preview for the last minute. The last few weeks have given us time to separate the men from the boys, hence a smaller list than usual of men capable taking the Queen of the Classics. Here we go:
Last spring, sickness and injury took their toll on Fabian Cancellara, possibly a result of an early season trip to the rainy and cold Tour of California. As a result, the Swiss Champion rode a rather anonymous classics campaign, abandoning the Tour of Flanders after a broken chain on the Koppenburg and spending most of Roubaix in the service of his team. But Spartacus is back this year—in a big way. After winning the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders—an impressive double in its own right—Cancellara now heads to Roubaix as the top favorite to become only the second non-Belgian (and coincidentally, the second Swiss rider) to add the impressive Flanders-Roubaix double to his palmares as well. Cancellara is obviously in the form of his life and he has enjoyed past success on the pavé (he won the race in 2006 and has several high finishes on his resume). Perhaps more importantly, Cancellara has the confidence from knowing he defeated his main rival, Tom Boonen, twice in the last two weeks—in races considered Boonen’s home turf. All that aside, Cancellara’s biggest asset is his team. With experienced domestiques including Stuart O’Grady (the 2007 Roubaix winner), Baden Cooke, and Frank Hoj, look to see Saxo Bank massed at the front of the peloton well into the race’s final phases. Better still, Cancellara has a lieutenant strong enough the race himself—Matti Breschel. Combine condition, experience, confidence, and team with a dash of luck, and Paris-Roubaix is Cancellara’s race to lose.
It’s to hard to believe that Quick Step’s Tom Boonen comes into this year’s Paris-Roubaix as a slight underdog considering he’s the two-time defending champion and the winner of three of the last five editions. Boonen’s also took second in Milan-San Remo, the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen, and last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders—an impressive haul for most riders. That said, there’s just one thing separating Boonen from being a shoo-in to take a record-tying fourth Roubaix: Fabian Cancellara. To beat Spartacus, Boonen needs to ride with confidence and a bit of luck to go with the form that’s obviously there. He’ll also need more support from his team than he received last week. The world’s fastest time trialist, Cancellara won Flanders partly because he was able to isolate Boonen early, forcing him to ride mano a mano in what was essentially a two-man time trial to the foot of the Muur. His legs clearly spent from the sustained power output, Boonen was unable to respond to Cancellara’s inevitable surge. Tomorrow, Boonen will need his teammates, notably Stijn Devolder, to ease the pressure on their captain before the race enters its crucial sectors—especially since Cancellara’s team seems to be much stronger. If Boonen can exit the Arenberg Forest with at least 2 or 3 teammates at his side, he’ll be in good shape; if he’s isolated early though, it could mean the end of his terrific run at Roubaix.
The next two riders on the list come to this year’s edition of the Hell of the North with new teams and fine condition—two things they’ll need to overcome Cancellara and Boonen—and years of near misses.
Team Sky’s Juan Antonio Flecha is a rider unafraid to attack in Paris-Roubaix, but bad luck, poor team support, and foolish choices have often prevented him from taking the win. A victory in this year’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad seemed to indicate that Flecha—thanks to the support of a powerful Team Sky—had finally shrugged the cobbled monkey from his back. However, missed chances in the E3 Prijs and the Tour of Flanders have some wondering if Flecha’s Omloop was more a result of timing than a signal of bigger things to come. That said, I think Flecha can win this race. Roubaix’s always suited him more than Flanders—he’s a powerful rider, capable of the long, sustained in-the-saddle efforts from which Roubaix winners are born. Furthermore, he has a talented team entirely devoted to getting him the win. If Flecha’s able to take advantage of what might certainly become a two-man staring contest between Cancellara and Boonen, he could ride away to take the biggest win of his career—and the first cobbled monument ever to go to a Spaniard.
BMC’s George Hincapie is next on our list of favorites, and is another man hoping a new team and some incredible form might propel him to the win that’s eluded him throughout his career. Hincapie’s progressed nicely through the classics, following his 4th place in Ghent-Wevelgem with a 6th place in the Tour of Flanders. Hincapie has indeed fielded some criticism for what seems to be a penchant for missing the “big moveâ€â€”Sunday’s Ronde seemed to add fuel to the fire. Optimists like me hope last Sunday was just an indication that Big George is peaking just in time for Roubaix, a race a bit more suited to his powerful style. He enters Sunday as Co-captain with Marcus Burghardt, a man who could certainly ease the pressure on George in a race where he’s often found himself alone earlier than most. Alessandro Ballan would have been another valuable asset, but he’s been scratched following a “suspension†due to his rumored involvement in the Mantova doping investigation. Like Flecha, Hincapie needs to take advantage of a possible Cancellara-Boonen stalemate should the two top favorites prove unwilling to take the bull by the horns. If George can pull it off, it will be the finest day of his long career, and quite possibly all he needs to call it one too.
Our last 4-Stone favorite again faces the difficult task of trying to win the race for himself while riding in support of more-favored rider. Saxo Bank’s Matti Breschel appeared to be the strongest man in last Sunday’s Tour of Flanders before a mechanical and a botched bike change ruined his day. Now he comes to Roubaix eager to prove to himself and his suitors for 2011 that he’s the real deal. If he plays his cards right, he might just get his chance, as a Roubaix is a race where loyal teammates often find themselves in winning situations—especially riding for heavy favorites. (Just ask Servais Knaven.) Remember, Breschel finished 10th in Roubaix last year, a result he earned more or less on his own merits. With such a crowded situation at the top of the field, Breschel’s just the type of man to take advantage of the logjam to win it all for himself—if he can ride with more calm and poise than he did last week.
While perhaps, a step below Matti Breschel, Stijn Devolder’s another rider who could benefit from his team captain’s status as top favorite. The last two years, Devolder’s come to Roubaix on the downswing following wins in the previous Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. His form seems a bit late this year though, something that might just push him over the edge in Roubaix—a race where he’s showed some potential in the past, albeit with nothing to show for it. This year, with dry conditions and a supporting role, Devolder might just add a Paris-Roubaix to his two Flanders victories. If he does, look for Quick Step’s post-race press conference to contain more fireworks and/or icy stares than the race itself.
Along with Hincapie, I’ll be rooting for Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato to win tomorrow’s race. While enjoying the form of his life heading into the Tour of Flanders, Pozzato was forced to fly home with a nasty flu during the 3-Days of DePanne. Pozzato’s back now—he finished Wednesday’s Scheldeprijs—but admits to being a step below where he was two weeks ago. While it remains to be seen where exactly his fitness lies, it’s clear that Pozzato feels no pressure for Sunday—and that’s a good thing. Roubaix’s a race where anxiety and nervousness can take their toll—cases in point: Flecha and Hincapie. If Pozzato feels good and has a chance to play his card, he could go one step higher than last year’s 2nd place, becoming the first man to win as Italian Champion since Andrea Tafi in 1999.
I guess there’s something about Roubaix and near misses. Cervelo Test Team’s Thor Hushovd could have won last’s year edition had he not crashed on the Le Carrefour de l’Arbre sector, 20 kilometers from the end. This year, Hushovd’s not had the season he and his team were expecting, with sickness, injury, and poor form taking their toll on what was hoped would be a breakthrough season the team. That said, as many of the favorites certainly know, Hushovd’s not to be discounted. He’ll make the splits during the middle third of the race; it’s the final sectors that will determine whether Mighty Thor becomes the second Scandinavian winner of the Hell of the North. The good weather works in his favor, eliminating one variable from an already chaotic and nervous event.
Speaking of second chances, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Leif Hoste might be known more for his missed opportunities in the Tour of Flanders—he’s finished second three times. This year, Hoste rode a solid Ronde in support of Phillippe Gilbert; as a result he’ll have a strong team including Greg Van Avermaet and Jurgen Roelandts at his disposal in Roubaix. Another rider who could capitalize on hesitation at the top, Hoste will need to demonstrate a willingness to make the race for himself should the opportunity present itself—something we have yet to see from the Belgian. Lotto’s the only team not to have won a race this year—there’s no better time than now for Hoste to end that streak.
Marcus Burghardt has quietly proven himself to be one of the most consistent riders in the cobbled classics over the past few years. He’s overlooked by virtue of the fact that his breakthrough win preceded several top finishes; usually the opposite is the case. Technically the Co-captain of the BMC squad taking the start in Compiegne, Burghardt might have to defer to George Hincapie’s latest attempt to add Paris-Roubaix to his resume. That said, like Breschel and Devolder, Burghardt might find a supporting role just the leash he needs to position himself for a win—especially if other teams give their lieutenants similar opportunities. And with Hincapie known for his “it’s all about the team†mentality, he’ll have an advantage over men with more jealous leaders.
I can’t understand why Tyler Farrar’s not getting more attention following his solid run of results leading into this weekend’s race. With top-10 finishes in Ghent-Wevelgem and the Tour of Flanders, Farrar clearly has the legs to handle 200-plus kilometers of hard racing and still have something in the tank for the finale. His win in Wednesday’s Scheldepriis indicates his form is still rising. While Farrar has said he’s riding in support of Martijn Maaskant and Johan Vansummeren, I see those comments as nothing more than a smokescreen as Farrar’s clearly a step above his two Benelux teammates. Do I think Farrar can win? No. Do I see him finishing in the top-10 and possibly top-5? Absolutely. While many view Farrar as a true field sprinter, I see him as more of classics rider—like Museeuw early in his career. That’s a bold comparison, I know; but after Sunday, it might just prove prophetic.
Lars Boom leads Rabobank into Sunday along with Joost Posthuma. While Boom plays down the role his cyclocross background will have, I think it merits at least some attention for the confidence it could give the Dutchman heading into the race’s rougher patches of pavé. While Boom might still be a few years away from being a serious candidate for the win, he could find himself in a breakaway that might propel to a top-10 result. For a nation starved for a true cobble-contender, that’s an accomplishment worthy of merit.
Peter Sagan was inexplicably left home for a few weeks following his two stage wins in Paris-Nice. While I understand the need to protect the young Slovakian’s development (he’s only 20), I can’t understand why he didn’t at least deserve a start in Milan-San Remo. I guess management was afraid of Daniele Bennati being upstaged. Regardless, Sunday is Sagan’s first start in a classic—what a stage for a debut! And while the odds are overwhelmingly against him, consider these 3 things: Sagan has proven unfazed by the top-level competition he’s faced so far this season; he finished 2nd in the 2008 junior Paris-Roubaix; and he’s a former World Junior Cyclocross Champion. While he might be forced to ride for Manuel Quinziato and Daniel Oss, by the end of the day Sunday, expect to see Sagan’s name near the top of the results.
Like the now-retired Wilfred Peeters, Matthew Hayman is a super-domestique deserving of one big day. He rode an aggressive race in last week’s Tour of Flanders, at one time escaping from the front only to be caught by the eventual winning move. A rider capable of high wattage outputs on the pavé, Hayman is more of a sentimental favorite than anything else. At the end of the day, he’ll defer to his captain Juan Antonio Flecha; but once his work his done, a top-10 finish is certainly within the Australian’s reach.
Others to watch include BBox’s Steve Chainel, another talented young star who’s proven his mettle thus far this spring; Bernhard Eisel a savvy rider benefiting from several departures from HTC; and Bjorn Leukemans, a man hoping to show the ASO just what it’s missing by not inviting his Vacansoleil team to the Tour.
So there you have it, Pavé’s 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview. I’s interesting how closely it compares to last year’s imaginary 2010 Preview. Will the result resembles last year’s as well? Only time will tell.
For now, enjoy the race—you can follow Pavé on Twitter for live commentary—and share your comments and picks below.
Several times over the past few days I have received comments about my Preview of this year’s Paris-Roubaix. The thing is, I haven’t posted it yet! I was quite confused until I realized that after last year’s race, I had some fun imagining what a 2010 Roubaix Preview might look like. Apparently it’s one of the first hits when one Googles “Paris-Roubaix 2010 Preview”–hence the comments.
So to tide you over for my official 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview (to be published later today or early tomorrow), I thought I would re-post, my 2009 attempt at a Preview of the 2010 Paris-Roubaix.
I hope you enjoy it–please share your comments below.
5-Stones
Tom Boonen – Boonen came into this season with Milan-San Remo as his primary goal. His tire length victory over Mark Cavendish gave him the win he so craved in one of the few Monuments he had left to conquer. Last week at Flanders he looked as though his form is on the decline following weeks at top niveau; but in a race like Roubaix, he still cannot be discounted. Some might say the loss of Devolder will hurt him, but as we saw last year, Roubaix is a race where Tommeke can fend for himself quite well. As long as Quick Step has a rider in the early break to offer support later, Boonen should be fine. As always, luck will be a factor (his opponents’ crashes and miscues in 2009 certainly made things a bit easier for him); but in the end, it will come down to just how badly he wants it. If he can display the determination he displayed in San Remo, look for Tom to take the top step for the fourth time.
Fabian Cancellara – Spartacus just can’t catch a break. Last year in Flanders he broke his chain on the Koppenburg, this year he flatted out of the chase group between the Bosberg and the finish line. With O’Grady and Riis’ Viking Horde of dedicated workers, Cancellara is eager to win this race again, thus cementing his place with Boonen in what could become a legendary rivalry.
Filippo Pozzatto – Going into last week’s Tour of Flanders, the question regarding Pozzato centered upon whether or not he would try and take the race into his own hands. Last year’s shadowing of Boonen won him the sprint for second, but it did little to help him get him the win. Ironically, this year it was following wheels again that meant the difference for Pippo. The only one able to follow Devolder’s attack up the Muur, Pozzato was more than happy to wait for the sprint where he knew he would make quick work of the Silence rider. This weekend, he stands an even better chance of pulling-off the double in a race that seems to suit him even more. With legions of tifosi lining the course to protect him from those bad Belgian hooligans, Pozzato is primed for victory.
Stijn Devolder – Devolder’s move to Silence might just have paid-off. I’ll admit, I was worried that he might pay the price for letting his ego and his wallet lure him away from the safety of Quick Step. But his performance in last week’s Flanders proves he’s truly Silence’s kopman. While he didn’t win the race, his team worked flawlessly to set him up for his leg-searing attack at the foot of the Muur. Unfortunately, Katusha set-up Pozzato equally well. As domestiques, Hoste and Van Summeren are enough of a team to get Devolder where he needs to be for the win. Throw someone like Sentjens into an early break and you’ll have the ingredients for a Devolder victory.
4-Stones
Alessandro Ballan – While still young, as Ballan ages he seems to be losing the explosivity necessary to win on Belgium’s muurs and bergs. However, that doesn’t hinder him in Roubaix, a race of sustained power and endurance. His team is still a bit weak despite the off-season addition of Quinziato. Like many of the other riders, the key for Ballan will be in how he plays off the deeper teams. He’ll need patience and a bit of luck in choosing just which attacks to follow.
Thor Hushvod – The Mighty Thor is out for revenge. He thought he had a second Ghent-Wevelgem in the bag before a stalled motorcycle in the final km led to crash, derailing the peloton’s capture of Flecha’s 2,000-meter suicide breakaway. Thor came-out okay—his lead-out train bore the brunt of the fall—but he’ll certainly be riding with something to prove. As he showed last year, he’s capable of winning this race, should things (including Flecha) fall in his favor.
George Hincapie – For better or worse, we will be subjected to one final year of Versus TV coverage that highlights George Hincapie above all else—the race included. His retirement following this year’s Tour of Missouri will leave Paris-Roubaix without one of its biggest storylines of the past 15 years (at least for English-speaking fans). Could this finally be the year? Columbia added Kevin Ista to bolster the attack, but will it be enough? Burghart and Eisel are there again, but can they be patient for one more year? Time for some box-section alloy rims, George. Your carbon deep-dish wheels seem to make you more flat prone. Pull-out all the stops and give it one more go!
Martijn Maaskant – Maaskant’s move to Rabobank has clearly paid dividends. Having a team of riders capable of supporting him in the big classics made all the difference in his win at the E3 Prijs 2 weeks ago. I still think he’s a year away from a win in Flanders or Roubaix, but he’s certainly capable of succeeding ahead of my schedule. His form is there, his team is solid, and he’s proved adept at learning from his mistakes. Expect big things—if not now, then soon.
Leif Hoste – At first upset by Devolder’s move to Silence, it might turn out to be the best thing that could have happened to Leif. Why? MUCH less pressure. Hoste’s just not strong enough to handle the burden that comes with the status of top favorite. I think he’ll be much better served as a role-playing lieutenant. He could easily find himself in a situation to win the race in a fashion similar to Knaven in 2001. Given a free hand while the other favorites look to Devolder, Hoste might finally bag his big classic win.
3-Stones
Sylvain Chavanel – Devolder’s departure cemented Chava’s place with Quick Step for at least one more year. He’ll get more freedom to play his own odds in race where the competition might mark Boonen too closely. In short, he’s Quick Step’s new Stijn Devolder. In 2009, his late-race exploits showed us all he has the ability to win Roubaix, now he’ll just need the opportunity. If he gets it, don’t be surprised to see the first French winner since Guesdon.
Heinrich Haussler – Haussler still seems to be recovering from the spectacular crash in Stage 3 of the 2009 Vuelta. He shows glimmers of the form that made him the talk of the spring in last year, but I think the top form is still coming. Amstel might be a better chance for him.
Juan Antonio Flecha – Johan Bruyneel has never won at Roubaix. The signing of Flecha proves just how important it might be to him. Flecha’s the king of “too little, too late” as he always seems to miss the move that matters. He broke that streak in Roubaix last year, but crashed in the final 20km. Too eager? Perhaps. But if there’s anyone that can help overcome his nerves and tendency to panic, it’s Bruyneel and Alain Gallopin. Cool under fire, they might prove to be the difference makers for the Spanish Arrow.
2-Stone Outsider
Johan Vansummeren – These two have played the roles of faithful domestiques over the past several seasons. They’re likely to do so again, but don’t rule them out. Hoste’s the new lieutenant at Silence; that could give Van Summeren more latitude. Stranger things have happened!
That’s it for my 2010 Paris-Roubaix Preview! Did I miss someone? Share your thoughts below.
With so much going on this week, I thought a special edition of the Musette was in order. Here we go:
1. Tyler Farrar won today’s Scheldeprijs, continuing the fine form he’s displayed so far during this year’s Belgian Classics. It’s Farrar’s second win of the season following his victory in Stage 3a of the 3-Days of DePanne. More importantly, it’s the young American’s fifth major top-10 result on Belgian soil this season following his 3rd-place finish in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, 9th-place in Ghent-Wevelgem, and 5th-place in the Tour of Flanders. All Tyler needs now is a solid finish in Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix to cap a fantastic spring for the Garmin rider. With Roubaix being a race known to favor the strong and powerful, Farrar’s streak might not be over.
As for the race itself, it pretty much went as expected. Filippo Pozzato was a last-minute addition to the start list; he finished in one of the front groups along with several other favorites for the Hell of the North on Sunday. Tom Boonen did hit the deck with about 37km to go, but was able to rejoin the leaders with enough time left to still finish 18th. I was a bit surprised to see Andre Greipel finish so poorly—especially after his team (and his mouth) worked so hard to position himself for the win.
2. Lost in the hoopla surrounding Sunday’s Tour of Flanders was an interesting Tweet from George Hincapie following some criticism he received from a fan via a comment at Podium Cafe.
First this:
Then this:
Not too sure if any of it’s earth-shattering, but I find it interesting that the line between riders and fans grows increasingly thin thanks to sites like Twitter.
3. And speaking of George, check this out from his first year at Roubaix. Tears for Gears is a terrific site for fans of the 1990’s–it’s helping me getting over throwing away my old copies of Winning Magazine.
4. In case you missed it, here’s this again:
5. The Tour of the Basque Country is underway, and all signs point to the controversial Alejandro Valverde having a terrific Ardennes campaign. Oscar Freire and Garmin’s young squad seem poised for some nice results as well. Freire currently leads the GC, but tomorrow’s “Queen†stage looks certain to shake things up. Stay-tuned.
6. Speaking of Pais Vasco, Francesco Gavazzi won today’s stage for Lampre, a squad in an uncomfortable spot thanks to some doping products found in the home of Lorenzo Bernucci. According to Bernucci, the products belong to his wife and brother. Sure they do, Lorenzo.
Some are already talking about Lampre being booted from the Tour—could Vacansoleil finally get its chance?
7. And last, but not least, I did a fantastic ride this past weekend called the Hell of Hunterdon. If you happen to live near Philadelphia, you need to participate in next year’s edition (or for that matter, in this year’s edition of its sister-event, the Fool’s Classic). Just over 76 miles in length, the ride includes about 12 miles (18 sections) of some of New Jersey’s finest unpaved and gravel roads—like L’Eroica, but without the wine, costumes, and vintage bikes. If you plan on doing Battenkill next year, you’re a fool if you don’t ride the HoH as training.
The ride’s organization was smooth and efficient, and free beer and pizza were offered to all finishers. While I was a guest of the organizer, the registration fee was nominal for such a wonderful day—especially for those who pre-registered. Better still, of the 100 or so people registered in advance, 28 of them won raffle prizes from companies including Lazer, Belgum Budder, and Classic Cycling Essentials. Be sure to bookmark the event’s website, and add it to your calendar for next spring.
8. And by the way, I’m looking for a pair of 700×23 Vittoria Open Tubular CX’s with black rubber and tan/skin sidewalls.
I’ve also been inspired by a recent Twitter conversation to track down some Briko Stingers or Zens.
Drop me a line at paveblog@gmail.com if you think you can help me out.
Have a great Wednesday–our Paris-Roubaix coverage begins tomorrow!
This didn’t work the first time I tried to post it, so I did a video screen capture and tried my best to get a good copy of the footage–so excuse the first few moments.
As for the action itself, well–it speaks for itself. Enjoy!
One note: if you are the original owner of this footage and would not like it shared, please contact me and I’ll be happy to take it down and/or credit you for filming it.