3-Days of DePanne Preview

Posted on March 30, 2010 by

The 3-Days of DePanne begins today, offering procrastinators one last chance to cram before Sunday’s major exam—the Tour of Flanders. This 3-day, 4-stage event offers something for everyone: a long, hilly pre-Ronde reconnaissance stage; two stages for sprinters; and the traditional short, time trial finale.

Before Milan-San Remo, I spoke about certain races following scripts; here’s the script for DePanne:

Curtain

(Cobbled climbs.)

–Breakaway or small group (possibly containing one or more contenders for the Ronde) wins hilly first stage, creating GC time-gaps.

(Rain.)

–Despite several riders’ best efforts, Stage 2 ends in a field sprint.

(Crash.)

–Stage 3a ends in another field sprint, after which the majority of riders not inside the top-20 head home early.

(Wind.)

–Stage 3b time trial is won by a specialist, and the race overall goes to the best time trialist from Stage 1’s breakaway or small group.

Curtain

So without further ado, let’s take a look at this year’s contenders.

Liquigas returns to the race with last year’s winner, Frederik Willems, supported by a strong cast including sprinters Daniele Bennati and Francesco Chicchi and all-rounders Manuel Quinziato and Daniele Oss. I could easily see Bennati and Chicchi taking a stage or two and Quinziato possibly going for the overall win should he make the break in Stage 1. Oss rode a superb Ghent-Wevelgem Sunday—he’s one to watch as well.

Omega Pharma-Lotto enters DePanne with both Phillippe Gilbert and Leif Hoste hoping to cram a bit more form into their legs before Flanders and Roubaix. For Gilbert, the race is little more than a tune-up, one final chance to test himself on terrain similar to Sunday’s. As for Hoste, he seriously needs some training, and perhaps a result to ease some of the pressure his team currently faces. He won this race in 2006—a repeat performance would certainly be a welcome sight for one of few teams not to have won a race yet this year.

HTC-Columbia is leaving Ghent-Wevelgem winner Bernhard Eisel home this week, bringing a young, but talented squad to DePanne. Marcel Sieberg and Peter Velits should continue to impress, while Bert Grabsch has the talent to win Thursday’s ITT. I’ll have my eye on Jan Ghyselinck, a talented young Belgian who might put on a show for the home fans.

Quick Step’s bringing a team comprised largely of domestiques and rouleurs, inevitably hoping one or two will rise to the challenge of getting Boonen a win on Sunday. All eyes will be on Stijn Devolder as he makes one final attempt to find the form that saw him win the last two editions of the Ronde. He’s faced consistent criticism in the press, especially from his own boss, Patrick Lefevere—today begins his last chance for redemption. He’s won this race before though—he at least has that going for him.

As for Astana, they bring the bulk of their classics team to the race including former stage winner Enrico Gasparotto. With Maxim Iglinsky and Allan Davis, there’s the potential for multiple stage wins and possibly the overall title for the aggressive Kazakh squad.

Katusha’s another team not leaving anything to chance, bringing Filippo Pozzato, Sergei Ivanov, and Robbie McEwan. Pozzato won a difficult Stage1 last year and almost took home the overall title—he always deserves mention. McEwen could take a victory on Stages 2 and 3a if things go well. This team’s biggest goal: keep Pozzato out of trouble. DePanne’s notorious for crashes; a fall for Pippo would be disastrous.

As for Garmin, they’re a team that might be looking for the overall win. Tyler Farrar’s well-suited to each of the three mass-start stages, and can certainly hold his own well enough in a time trial to win the overall title. With Johan Vansummeren, Martijn Maaskant, and Robbie Hunter riding in support, Farrar has to be considered a top favorite. And don’t forget David Millar. Fresh from his ITT win in the Criterium International, Thursday’s race against the clock certainly suits him.

Poor Lampre—we haven’t mentioned them once this classics season. That said, this is a race where they could grab a win. Danilo Hondo and Angelo Furlan are candidates for a field sprint, while Simon Spilak is always a threat from a breakaway.

On to BMC and another rider hoping DePanne will provide a glimpse of the winning form he’s displayed in the past: Alessandro Ballan. BMC’s beginning to reveal it’s potential with both Marcus Burghardt and George Hincapie delivering impressive performances over the weekend—now it’s Ballan’s turn to add a piece to the puzzle. If he can hit his peak in time for the following two Sunday’s, thus joining his two teammates at a high level, this will be a tough team to overlook. Ballan won DePanne in 2007 then won Flanders 3 days later. If he shows himself to be among the best between now and Thursday, we’ll have to take him seriously.

As for the rest of the teams taking the start, there are several highlights worth mentioning:

1. Skil-Shimano is hoping Kenny Van Hummel can send a message to the ASO with a stage win or two, while Dominique Cornu is an outside threat for the ITT.

2. Vacansoleil, another team left-off the Tour’s invite list, brings Bobbie Traksel and Borut Borzic. Borzic could easily take Stages 2 and 3a.

3. Acqua & Sapone’s Luca Paolini has been riding at a high level since Milan-San Remo. Could DePanne give him the win he’s been seeking?

4. Landbouwkrediet’s Davey Commeyne has made an impressive switch from cyclocross to road—look for him to continue to make strides this week.

5. BBox’s William Bonnet and Steve Chainel have put in some impressive performances as of late—watch for them this week.

6. Jens Keukelaire and Cofidis are both hoping for a win in DePanne, thus proving the young Belgian has what it takes to win against top competition.

7. Italy’s best chance for a win or two in DePanne might actually come from Colnago and Sasha Modolo, the 4th-place finisher in Milan-San Remo. Several sprinters have used DePanne to take their first big wins against tough foreign competition—with Mattia Gavazzi providing lead-outs, I think Modolo’s coming-out party will continue here.

8. And last but not least, we cannot forget An Post’s Nico Eeckhout and Topsport Vlaanderen’s Sep Vanmarcke, two riders at the opposite ends of their careers. Vanmarcke’s ridden incredibly well over the past 10 days; I’m eager to see if he can continue to mix it up with the big boys in DePanne.

And my final prediction? I think Tyler Farrar will take the overall title over Quinziato with Gasparotto, Bennati, Modolo, and David Millar taking the stage wins—in that order.

What about you? Share your comments below.

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Monday Musette – E3 Prijs and Ghent-Wevelgem Wrap-up

Posted on March 30, 2010 by

Sorry for the delay, but here are my thoughts following a jam-packed weekend of racing:

1. It’s hard to believe that Saturday’s E3 Prij was Fabian Cancellara’s first win in Belgium—aside from an ITT stage at the Tour of Belgium. Clearly, Spartacus is hoping it’s just a taste of better things to come—and with a team that’s turning-out to be one of the strongest in the peloton, it’s easy to see why his confidence is brimming. I haven’t been able to ascertain whether or not he knew about that tight left-hander just inside 1km to go, but one can only assume he—or his director—did. It just goes to show what can happen when brains meet brawns.

2. As for Tom Boonen, Saturday was his second consecutive 2nd-place in a race he won 4-years running from 2004 to 2007. To be honest, I’m not sure why everyone’s making such a big deal about Boonen’s performance. The only time anyone ever spoke about last year’s E3 loss to Pozzato was immediately before and after this year’s event—don’t you think Pozzato would have much rather won Roubaix and lost the E3? Exactly. A win on either of the next 2 Sunday’s is all Boonen needs to erase any lingering thoughts following Saturday’s loss—at least until next year’s event. That said, Boonen intimated that he was not prepared for the change in the race’s finish. Had he known about that last corner, he might have taken a faster line, and perhaps come a bit closer to catching Cancellara. With several other men riding at the top of their game, Boonen is in no place to take anything for granted—Saturday proved how costly even the slightest of mental lapses can be.

3. Sky’s Juan Antonio Flecha seems to have picked-up right where he left-off in February’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. I see him as a better contender for Roubaix than Flanders though, as he seems less explosive than he once was. Remember, when he attacked to win the Omloop, he simply motored-away from the rest on a flat section of cobbles. As for teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen, he was a non-factor in both races this weekend—that’s too bad as we all had high hopes for the young Norwegian. Can he get it together in time for Flanders?

4. And speaking of non-factors, Stijn Devolder might become the only former winner of the Tour of Flanders to be left-off his team the following year. Patrick Lefevere seems unimpressed by his team’s lack of urgency, even going as so far as to speculate just how many of his current riders might be looking for new jobs by the end of the season. While Sylvain Chavanel’s ridden well enough so far to be given a little bit of latitude, Devolder clearly has more to prove. He’s starting tomorrow’s 3-Days of DePanne, his last chance to show us—and his team—what he has to offer.

5. Hopefully Filippo Pozzato learned his lesson—he needs to be well-placed for every climb, not just the ones on which he thinks Boonen will attack. I don’t expect we’ll see him make the same mistake again—especially with Sergei Ivanov likely to have received a lecture as well following Saturday’s gaffe. Despite the mistake, Pippo’s clearly at the top of his game right now.

6. I picked Nick Nuyens for the win Saturday; he responded by hitting the deck not once, but three times. It’s a shame too as his Rabobank team was clearly up to the challenge, placing 3 riders in the top-10. One can only wonder what they would have done had Nuyens kept the rubber-side down.

7. Vacansoleil put in an impressive team performance as well, placing 2 riders in the top-10 including none other than Bjorn Leukemans. Okay, Bjorn, after 2nd-place in Dwars and 7th in the E3, you’re back on the radar. Please don’t disappoint me.

8. Were you surprised to see a Footon-Serveto rider finish 10th and a Xacebo-Galicia rider finish 18th? It’s okay, you can say it—I was too.

9. And speaking of Spanish teams, there was an interesting moment Saturday when Euskaltel had 4 riders struggling at the back in the E3 Prijs while 4 of their teammates were riding tempo at the front in the Criterium International. How’s that for universal balance?

Now to Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem…

10. It’s beginning to look like the only thing that might get in Fabian Cancellara’s way next weekend might be his own teammate, Matti Breschel. It was obvious to everyone that Breschel was the strongest man in the field. Had he not flatted, he might have added a major classic to the minor one he won last Wednesday. He and Cancellara are saying all the right things heading into Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, but one can only wonder what might happen between now and the finish line Sunday. One thing is certain: Saxo Bank clearly has the best one-two punch in the peloton right now—something few other teams can match.

11. But before we forget, let’s give some credit to HTC-Columbia’s Bernhard Eisel, the man who actually won the race. He admitted to not liking Ghent-Wevelgem very much in his post-race interview—that’s too bad as he’ll certainly be expected to ride it every year from now until he retires. Bob Stapleton must have been relieved to see his team take a big win—especially given the amount of success his former riders have garnered since their departures. Eisel was not eager to count himself among the favorites for next Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, but his teammates Marcel Sieberg and Matthew Goss still warrant attention following impressive rides yesterday. This year might be too soon, but it’s clear that HTC’s future is bright.

12. Hats-off to Topsport Vlaanderen’s Sep Vanmarcke for what was one of the gutsiest rides I’ve seen in a long time. Not only did he attack in the finale of Ghent-Wevelgem, but once he was caught he was still able to sprint to 2nd place—which is more than can be said for some of his companions. Vanmarcke also made the main selection in Dwars Door Vlaanderen.  Let’s see what he can do in this week’s 3-Days of DePanne.

13. As for Philippe Gilbert and Omega Pharma-Lotto, it’s déjà vu all over again as their 2010 spring campaign has started as poorly as last year’s. With 2 men in a 6-man breakaway, it’s hard to see how the team didn’t come home with the win. Both Gilbert and Roelandts said they told the other to go for it, but that’s hardly an excuse for not even trying to attack. Worse still, there seemed to be no attempt at teamwork in the final sprint. Still, Gilbert’s riding well and is hoping DePanne will put the finishing touches on his form for Flanders. But this is Belgium—wins in Paris-Tours and the Tour of Lombardy will only get him so far.

As for Jurgen Roelandts, we could forgive him for his failure to come through for his team yesterday—had he made more of an effort in the final to lead-out Gilbert for the win. While I think he’ll play a role on Sunday, his true calling could be Paris-Roubaix two weeks from now.

14. And give George Hincapie credit for a solid ride Sunday—a ride I can’t say I was expecting. Despite the performance, I think Flanders is a bit out of his reach at this point—Marcus Burghardt might be a better bet for BMC. But Roubaix is still a race I think he can win, especially with two more weeks to improve. Sometimes getting sick can be a good thing—if it gets you to your peak at a time when others are starting to fall from theirs. Could this be George’s lucky year?

And while we’re talking about BMC, is Alessandro Ballan this team’s Stijn Devolder? Like the Belgian, Ballan’s riding DePanne, but I can’t help but if it’s too little, too late.

15. As for Liquigas and Astana, not riding Saturday clearly had an effect on their performances Sunday. Daniel Oss is a name to remember from Liquigas while Enrico Gasparotto and Maxim Iglinsky continued their impressive seasons for Astana. All three are listed for DePanne—I expect we’ll be hearing from them again. One interesting note for Astana, I think Iglinsky getting dropped from the break shows the decline of his form, while Gasparotto’s move to bridge a gap on the Kateberg shows his fitness might still be on the rise.

16. And finally, the organizers of Ghent-Wevelgem couldn’t have been happy with Boonen and Cancellara not finishing—and almost not even starting, for that matter. This weekend proved that riding both races at a high level is clearly not possible. Expect more calendar changes next year.

And that’s that as far this weekend’s cobbled races are concerned. What are your thoughts?

Share them below.

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Ghent-Wevelgem – Live Stream

Posted on March 28, 2010 by

Click here for a live stream of today’s action!

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E3 Prijs Vlaanderen and Ghent-Wevelgem Preview – A Team Approach

Posted on March 26, 2010 by

Until the Ghent-Wevelgem joined it on the same weekend, the E3 Prijs Vlaanderen was the traditional dress rehearsal for the Tour of Flanders. With over 200 kilometers of hills and cobbles—including many of the climbs to be used in the following Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, riders and teams felt it offered the best preparation and reconnaissance.

Now though, Ghent-Wevelgem takes the Sunday slot previously occupied by the Brabantsepijl—a race run on a less-demanding circuit. As a result, teams are now faced with the choice of doing both the E3 and the “new and improved” Ghent-Wevelgem—for a total of more than 400 kilometers of berg and cobble-filled racing—or choosing one race over the other. That’s a tough call considering the importance and prestige of both events.

For the past few days I’ve faced a difficult decision as well: do I write one or two previews for this weekend’s races? On one hand, a single preview might be more appropriate and perhaps less redundant as many of the favorites for Saturday will also be favored on Sunday. On the other hand, there are several key differences between each race’s start list—differences that could be a factor in the final results.

In the end, I’ve decided to take a team approach, previewing the prospects of the favored teams’ chances over the course of the weekend. I’ll start in an obvious place:

Quick Step’s heads into the weekend with what appears to be the strongest squad in both races. Tom Boonen was initially slated to start only Saturday’s E3 Prijs, but has reconsidered given his current form. After all, he’s won both races in the past, and the E3 Prijs 4 times! On Saturday he’ll have the team’s full complement backing him including Sylvain Chavanel, Stijn Devolder, and Carlos Barredo. On Sunday, Devolder will sit-out in favor of Wouter Weylandt, a rider capable of taking the win should things come down to a sprint. Aside from what could be an impressive display from Boonen, watch carefully for the roles played by Chavanel and Devolder—we could get our first glimpse of where they stand behind Boonen in the team’s hierarchy. If the last few weeks are any indication, Chavanel’s riding better than Devolder and should be given more latitude to play his own hand. Then again, this is Belgium—will Quick Step favor a Frenchman over a hometown hero?

Boonen and Quick Step’s main competition on Saturday should come from Filippo Pozzato’s Katusha squad, a team that has performed well over the past weeks on behalf of their longhaired leader. With experienced support from Sergei Ivanov—a former E3 winner—Pozzato can ride confidently; his main lieutenant knows the roads better than he does. Throw-in Stijn Vandenbergh and Laszlo Bodrogi, and you’ve got the makings of a deep squad. On Sunday, Pozzato will rest while Robbie McEwen joins the roster. Ghent-Wevelgem’s added more hills this year—possibly to attract more of the Ronde’s favorites—but making it a bit harder for the sprinters. Still, after a hard day in Harelbeke, it might be a race that ends in a bunch. If it does, look for Katusha to try and set things up for McEwen to take a win in front of his adopted home crowd.

Team Sky is another main contender, with both Edvald Boasson Hagen and Juan Antonio Flecha slated to start both events. This line-up could change though, as Hagen’s reported to be suffering from Achilles problems. I have a hunch we might see the team ride for Flecha Saturday and Hagen Sunday. Flecha’s form has continued to grow since his win in last month’s Omloop Het Niuewsblad; a win in the E3 would make him a solid favorite for Flanders along with Boonen and Pozzato. As for Hagen, he won Ghent-Wevelgem last year, and might choose an extra day of rest before returning to defend his title. With a strong team including Michael Barry, former E3 winner Kurt-Asle Arvesen, Matt Hayman, and Ian Stannard, this squad has the capacity to win both races. And don’t forget Greg Henderson in the event of a sprint on Sunday; with Chris Sutton giving him lead-outs, a sprint win for the Kiwi is a very real possibility.

From Sky to Saxo Bank, the team of Fabian Cancellara and Wednesday’s winner of Dwars Door Vlaanderen, Matti Breschel. Cancellara’s racing both events—perhaps a statement directed at Tom Boonen. Look for him to be involved more on Saturday as the race is more akin to next Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. In fact, if he—and Boonen for that matter—do well in the E3, look for one if not both to be last-minute scratches in Ghent. As for Breschel, he’s generally listed as starting both days as well, but I found one site in which he’s been scratched from the E3 Prijs—perhaps saving him for a possible sprint on Sunday? With both Cancellara and Breschel in the fold, Saxo Bank is another candidate for double wins.

But wait, there’s another team with the firepower necessary to do the double this weekend—Rabobank with Nick Nuyens and Oscar Freire. Nuyens has been building nicely all season. He raced aggressively in the Omloop before a flat tire derailed his chances for the win then followed it up with an attacking ride in Wednesday’s Dwars Door Vlaanderen. Look for him to have the sole support of team Saturday, with Lars Boom and Sebastian Langeveld his lieutenants. On Sunday, Nuyens rests while Milan-San Remo winner Freire attempts to continue his impressive March with what would be his second win in Wevelgem. With Nuyens, Boom, and Langeveld all resting in favor of lead-out men and rouleurs, it’s clear where Rabobank’s ambitions lie.

Omega Pharma-Lotto’s taken an interesting approach to the weekend, leaving both Philippe Gilbert and Jurgen Roelandts at home on Saturday in favor of a start in Sunday’s Ghent-Wevelgem, a choice that confuses me. Were I driving the car, I would have started Gilbert in the E3, thus giving him a chance to gauge his fitness against the other favorites in a race much more suited to his talents. On Sunday, I would put all my eggs in Roelandts’ basket, giving him a chance to see what he can do as the team’s protected rider. After all, he’s shown terrific form thus far—let’s see what he’s got, no? Instead, it appears Greg Van Avermaet will lead the team in Harelbeke. Van Avermaet displayed good fitness on Wednesday in Dwars; in Harelbeke he’ll be supported by Leif Hoste, a rider capable of a good ride, but seems more content to wait for Roubaix. As for Sunday, with both Gilbert and Roelandts rested, there will be a lot of pressure on the team to bring home the win in front of a home crowd. With such a stacked line-up, they’re certainly up to the challenge.

One of my big questions for the next two weeks is whether or not BMC is up to the challenge as well. At the beginning of the year we thought BMC would be challengers in several of the cobbled classics. But after a sub-par start to the season, many have doubts. Marcus Burghardt seems to be the team’s best rider at this point. He rode solidly in Tirreno-Adriatico and Milan-San Remo, finishing with the leading peloton. Burghardt’s finished in the top-5 in the E3 and won Ghent-Wevelgem in the past; similar results are well within his potential this weekend—he’s racing both events. Karsten Kroon joins him on Saturday while Alessandro Ballan joins him both days—the Italian needs to show something soon if he wants to be considered a favorite for next weekend’s main event. As for George Hincapie, he’s riding Ghent-Wevelgem—a race he won in 2001—but will skip the E3. At this point though, it’s hard to consider George a favorite this weekend—and possibly next as well. I’m hoping he’ll have good legs for Roubaix in two weeks—it’s a race where age and experience still mean something—but his current form doesn’t paint an optimistic picture. I hope I’m wrong.

As for the Cervelo TestTeam, they’ve lost a step thanks to the injury to Heinrich Haussler. On Saturday they take the line in Harelbeke hoping to propel Thor Hushovd to a good result on his way to his ultimate rendezvous with Flanders and Roubaix. After testing himself Saturday against his main competition, he’ll rest Sunday while former winner Andreas Klier, Roger Hammond, and Jeremy Hunt give it their best shot at Ghent-Wevelgem.

We would have expected HTC-Columbia and Liquigas to bring powerhouse squads to both races. Instead, the teams are riding Ghent-Wevelgem only—which certainly couldn’t have pleased the organizers of the E3 Prijs. That said, calling HTC’s roster for Sunday a “powerhouse” is a bit of an exaggeration. Marcel Seiberg and Matthew Goss—two young riders with serious potential—are the highlights of a classics team depleted by off-season transfers. Bernhard Eisel will be hoping for a sprint, but anything more than a top-5 placing might be out of his reach.

As for Liquigas, Peter Sagan has inexplicably been left off the list for Ghent-Wevelgem, a race he might have won. He’s on tap for Paris-Roubaix though, so we’ll soon get to see what he can do on the pavé. The team is bringing Daniele Bennati and Francesco Chicchi, two men certainly capable of winning the race in a sprint—if they work together. Aleksandr Kuschynski finished 2nd here last year—he and Manuel Quinziato will be looking for a succesful breakaway.

Garmin and Astana also chose to skip Saturday’s E3 Prijs in exchange for fresh legs on Sunday. Garmin’s clearly hoping Tyler Farrar can climb better in Flanders than he did last Saturday in Italy when he was dropped in Milan-San Remo. With Matt Wilson, Johan Vansummeren, Martijn Maaskant, and Robert Hunter supporting him, Farrar will be a force to be reckoned with in a field sprint. As for Astana, Maxim Iglinsky and Enrico Gasparotto have been riding very well as of late. Iglinsky finished third behind Pozzato and Boonen in last year’s E3. He won’t have another chance this year, but he clearly rides well in Belgium and is an early dark horse candidate for Flanders. As for Gasparotto, he won a stage in DePanne a few years back—he’s someone to watch for as well.

And the rest? Acqua Sapone brings Luca Paolini to both races—he’s been progressing nicely and is just the kind of rider to pull a surprise in a race like Harelbeke—if the favorites spend too much time staring at one another. Milram’s Niki Terpstra will be looking to build upon his great result in Dwars door Vlaanderen with another top result in Ghent-Wevelgem. La Francaise des Jeux brings Anthony Geslin, Yoann Offredo, and Frederic Guesdon to Harelbeke on Saturday and adds Yuheni Hutarovich—a talented sprinter—to the squad for Sunday. Without Geert Steegmans, Radio Shack will be hoping Geoffroy Lequatre can continue to impress, while Vacansoleil hopes Bjorn Leukemans and Borut Borzic can land solid results Saturday and Sunday respectively.

And last but never least, Nico Eeckhout and his An Post team will be racing on Saturday in the E3—never, ever count him out.

So I guess it’s prediction time, huh? Here you go!

I think a break gets away in Harelbeke, likely containing several top favorites. I see Nick Nuyens coming through for the win, as he’s perhaps a bit more desperate to prove himself in front of his home fans. It’s been a while since he’s won something important; if he gets a chance Saturday he’ll have no choice but to take it. Boonen will lead whoever’s left home for 2nd place on the day—look for Flecha, Burghardt, and Pozzato to be up there too. And don’t forget Luca Paolini.

On Sunday, I have to go with Oscar Freire for a second winning performance in a major race this season over Bennati, Farrar, Borzic, and Breschel. Ivanov, Iglinsky, and Quinziato will do their best to make a break succeed, but in the end the sprinter’s teams will prevail.

And while I’m at it, look for Alberto Contador to storm to a win in this weekend’s Criterium International, directly throwing sand in the face of Lance Armstrong and The Shack. He better take a rest soon though; he’s been riding at a high level for a while now and will need to rest before building peaking again for July.

That’s all for today—thanks for reading! Who are your picks for this weekend’s races?

Share your comments below. I’ll post a live feed tomorrow if I find one—look for me on Twitter as well if my schedule permits.

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5 Questions for the Cobbled Classics

Posted on March 25, 2010 by

Before things get underway this weekend, I thought it might be appropriate to share some questions I look forward to having answered in this year’s cobbled classics. The list is by no means exhaustive—there are many more plots and sub-plots to explore. But these are 5 of the biggest stories I’ll be following from Harelbeke to Roubaix.

1. What effects will Ghent-Wevelgem’s calendar move have?

This is something I’ve been wondering about ever since the calendar switch was announced last year. Traditionally, a rider trying to peak for Flanders and Roubaix took part in Dwars Door Vlaanderen, the E3 Prijs Harelbeke, and maybe the 3-Days of DePanne, before participating in the Tour of Flanders, Ghent-Wevelgem, and Paris-Roubaix. It was a fairly seamless preparation: a rider could focus exclusively on the Ronde, then race Ghent-Wevelgem as both a possible consolation prize and good training for that Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix.

Now though, riders and teams are forced to make a choice. Let’s look at Tom Boonen, for example. He rode Dwars Door Vlaanderen Wednesday and was originally slated to participate only in Saturday’s E3 Prijs. This was good for him, but bad for his team as it would have left its biggest star home for one of its country’s biggest races. Now Boonen’s decided to race both the E3 and Ghent-Wevelgem. Could this prove to be too much for him? If he suffers at Flanders will we all wonder if the extra hard day of racing took a bigger toll than he and his team expected?

It will be interesting to see who takes part in which races this weekend, what their results are, and then compare how well they fare next weekend at the Ronde. If we get a week’s worth of fantastic racing, with all of our favorites stars leading the charge, then call it victory for the UCI and the Belgian Federation. On the other hand, if the changes prove to hurt the quality of racing, a few people might have more questions to answer. I’m looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.

2. Will BMC rise to the occasion?

BMC made some of the biggest waves this past off-season, signing proven classics performers George Hincapie, Alessandro Ballan, Marcus Burghardt, and Karsten Kroon. On paper, these moves looked to make BMC a force to be reckoned with in the Northern Classics. So far, not so good though, as BMC’s imports have done little to impress. The Belgian opening weekend was a complete disaster as BMC’s riders were more or less absent from the front in both the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. L’Eroica was no better—for Hincapie and Co., at least—as Cadel Evans was the team’s best finisher. Tirreno-Adriatico was yet another success for Evans, but offered little indication that BMC would make it’s mark in the next few weeks. And Milan-San Remo? Nada.

We’re now less than two days from the E3 Prijs, the true dress rehearsal for the Tour of Flanders; will Ballan, Hincapie, and Burghardt justify the hype? Burghardt seems to be in the best position for a win, especially in this weekend’s Ghent-Wevelgem—a race he’s won before. If Ballan and Hincapie are indeed biding their time for Flanders and Roubaix they better show something soon. They might be hiding their form in the hope they are given more latitude—and less attention—in the races they covet. But as each day passes, I wonder more and more if they just don’t have it. We’ll have our answer soon.

3. Will Boonen and Pozzato become the DeVlaeminck and Moser of their generation?

If the last two weeks of racing are any indication, Tom Boonen and Filippo Pozzato are well on their way to picking-up right where they left-off at last year’s Paris-Roubaix. The budding rivalry brings to mind the duel waged each spring by Roger DeVlaeminck and Francesco Moser when the two of them combined for seven Paris-Roubaix titles in the 1970’s and early-1980’s.

At ages 29 and 28, respectively, Boonen and Pozzato could easily surpass the impressive run of their legendary compatriots—especially with teams talented and experienced enough to help them do it. Boonen’s already won three, although one can only wonder what would have happened last year had Pozzato been riding behind him instead of Thor Hushovd. After all, DeVlaeminck won all four of his titles before Moser even won his first—the tables could easily turn.

Personally, I would love to see Boonen win a 4th title in his nation’s drie-kleur—although I can say the same for Pozzato and his tricolore. At relatively young ages, we can only wonder just how many races these two can win.

And I didn’t even mention Fabian Cancellara.

4. Who will be this year’s revelation of the cobbled classics?

Last year’s young stars Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boasson Hagen were expected to take the next step this year, with at least one of them perhaps taking a win in Flanders or Roubaix. Unfortunately, things don’t appear to be working-out as planned. Haussler’s already been ruled-out with a knee injury and now Hagen’s form has been put into question due to inflammation in his achilles tendon. We wouldn’t be so disappointed if it weren’t for their breakout performances last year. Who will be next young riders to rise to the top?

Two days ago I would have mentioned Saxo Bank’s Matti Breschel as a rider capable of scoring a breakout win—but he did that yesterday in Dwars Door Vlaanderen.

Peter Sagan’s another candidate—if he gets a chance to race. It’s hard to believe that the double stage-winner at Paris-Nice didn’t even make the Liquigas team for Milan-San Remo; but with Roman Kreuziger and Vincezo Nibali likely non-starters at the cobbled events, look for this young Slovakian to get a chance to continue his impressive debut season.

Jurgen Roelandts of Omega Pharma-Lotto is only 24; he’s certainly someone who seems ready to step-up and assume more responsibility following solid results so far this spring in major Belgian races. If Philippe Gilbert has an off-day and Roelandts is given a green light, look for him to shine—possibly this Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem. Paris-Roubaix might be an interesting race for the Belgian as well; he’ll technically be riding in support of Leif Hoste, but as we all know, that’s hardly something for him to worry about.

5. Will Stijn Devolder be forced to defer his Flanders lieutenancy to Sylvain Chavanel? And if he does, will Chavanel become France’s first winner in a cobbled classic since Frederic Guesdon in 1997?

Stijn Devolder’s never been a rider to set the world on fire prior to the Tour of Flanders. That said, his sub-par performances so far this year are cause for alarm. If we couple these lackluster showings with the impressive rides by Chavanel at Paris-Nice and Milan-San Remo, we’ve got more than enough to reason to wonder if a change in Quick Step’s hierarchy might be coming.

I know I keep saying it, but Devolder will have to show something this weekend (he really will) if he hopes to have even the slimmest chance of playing his own card in the Ronde. As for Chavanel, he’s more than earned the right to be Quick Step’s #2 behind Tom Boonen with weeks (years really) of dedicated service to the team. Don’t forget, some wondered if Chavanel might have won the Tour of Flanders last year had Devolder not attacked. And after Boonen was well on his way to the win at Roubaix, Chavanel rode solidly to take 8th place. While Belgians will have their hands full watching Boonen, Gilbert, and Devolder over the coming weeks, French fans will have all of their attention squarely on Monsieur Chavanel’s shoulders. Will this be his year?

And there you have it—5 Big Questions for this year’s cobbled classics. And what about you? What do you hope to learn between now and Paris-Roubaix?

Share your comments below—and thanks for reading!

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Dwars Door Vlaanderen – Wrap-up

Posted on March 24, 2010 by

I think the only person happier than I was about Matti Breschel winning today’s Dwars Door Vlaanderen was Matti Breschel. Don’t get worng: Pavé isn’t designed to be a prognostication site; I predict winners simply for entertainment purposes. Being correct just adds to the fun; I won’t gloat—for too long, at least.

I caught the last 30 kilometers of the race during my lunch break with a friend who’s becoming a bit of a racing enthusiast. Today was his first opportunity to watch a race on Belgian roads and it was great to see his reactions. “Wow, that’s narrow!” and “Is that a crack down the center of the road?” were just some of the things he noticed, a reminder of the days when I first had a chance to see the classics unfold before me—albeit on a VCR several months after the races took place.

Here’s what I noticed today:

1. As for Breschel, give him credit for gambling on his own. Tom Boonen would have certainly taken the field sprint; it was a smart move for Breschel to test the willingness of other teams to drag any group with Boonen back into the race. And don’t let this win fool you, Breschel’s a successful sprinter in his own right; so look for him again come Sunday in Ghent-Wevelgem.

2. It took him a while, but Steve Chainel finally showed some of the potential we wondered about earlier in the season. The young Frenchman is a talented cyclocross rider and appears to have the makings of a fairly decent classics man. Compatriot Geoffroy LeQuartre had another solid day as well, building upon his good performance in Milan-San Remo. Couple these performaces with Sylvain Chavanel’s impressive form and one can’t help but wonder if France might have a successful spring.

3. Give Luca Paolini credit for finishing 10th in Milan-San Remo, spending a night or two at home, and then hopping a plane to Belgium to finish 5th today with what appeared to be minimal support. Consider him a dark horse candidate for the podium on Sunday.

4. As we had hoped, Nick Nuyens rode well, impressing me with several attacks late in the race. His role in Saturday’s E3 Prijs should confirm his status as a favorite for the Ronde. Few are mentioning the Rabobank man as a rider to contend with, but as Oscar Freire demonstrated Saturday, the men in orange are not to be overlooked—especially with talented support from riders like Sebastian Langeveld and Lars Boom.

5. Speaking of overlooking, I completely ignored Bjorn Leukemans and Niki Terpstra yesterday, and they both punished me for it with a terrific race today. Terpstra’s omission was a flat-out mistake on my part, but Leukemans? I overrated him often last year and I didn’t have the guts to risk it again. I’m waiting until after Saturday before predicting anything from him again.

6. As for the rest, Fabian Cancellara is clearly in peak condition. With Breschel and other strong teammates, he should contend for another win in a spring monument. And Boonen? I’m starting to wonder if he’s too strong at this point—Flanders and Rouabix are still 10 and 17 days away. Can he keep it up?

7. And finally, someone asked if the parcours had changed from recent years. The answer is yes, with the final laps around Waregem being scrapped and the finish line moved from the center of town to the neighborhood surrounding the local stadium.

And what about you? What did you take away from today’s events? Share your comments below.

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