Fleche-Wallonne Wrap-Up

Posted on April 20, 2011 by

Fotoreporter Sirotti

“I watched the finale with a Walloon friend. He shed tears.” You’ll have to forgive us if our wrap-up of the 2011 Fleche-Wallone borders on the sentimental, but wow: was Phillipe Gilbert storming up the Muur de Huy ever an obscene and beautiful display of power? When Julius listed Gilbert as a 3-hill Favorite in our Fleche-Wallone preview, I rolled my eyes a bit: I suppose you have to list him in an Ardennes race, but, it’s the Muur de Huy. He can’t win up that. But, as the saying will go hereafter, Thou Shalt Not Doubt a Peaking Gilbert. For him to pull open a huge lead on the Muur de Huy over the likes of Joaquin Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez, and Alexander Vinokourov – well, I keep trying to describe it, but I’m quite speechless. Let’s look at the race:

1. As predicted, la Fleche Wallone was defined by tight team control. Naturally, this kept everything fairly unsurprising. A four-man break gained and lost a big chunk of time before being reeled in, a few late moves tried their fate, but despite Jerome Pineau (Quick-Step) and Marco Marcato (Vacansoleil) having a few seconds’ advantage at the base of the Muur, the Fleche Wallone finishing in a side-to-side, slow-motion cartoonish uphill sprint is a very, very safe bet. The first to the bottom is the last to the top of the Muur de Huy – pat Pineau and Marcato on the back for their go of things, but they were doomed.

2. Throughout the later stages of the race, Gilbert’s OmegaPharma-Lotto team was present on the front. Was I alone in wondering, “Who are they working for? Obviously Gilbert can’t win on the Huy.” OPL was joined by Astana and Leopard-Trek quite a bit, and, closer to the end of the race, Katusha, Euskatel and Rabobank joined them in their attempt to keep their leaders at the sharp end of the stick and out of trouble.

3. Katusha’s work almost paid off for Joaquin Rodriguez, who must feel a bit deflated by another huge 2nd place. He had talked a strong game after Amstel Gold, pointing out that Gilbert had a clear advantage their but that he was the definite favorite for the Fleche Wallone. Watching Gilbert stomp away must have hurt more than Huuy’s 26% section. Rodriguez is an incredible rider who can be counted on for a glut of podium finishes in major races: second at Fleche Wallone this year and last, second at Amstel, 2nd at Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 3rd at the World Championships in ’09, and even two Grand Tour top tens last year (4th in the Vuelta, 8th in the Tour). Thus, one can’t help but wonder if Rodriguez is Chief Bridesmaid (as in, always the bridesmaid, never the bride) at Katusha.

4. No two ways around it, though: 2nd at Amstel and Fleche Wallone are damn fine results for Rodriguez. He’ll be out for blood at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and given that he is obviously in roaring form, it will be interesting to see what Grand Tours he’ll race this year – he may be too hot to race the Giro right now. Perhaps we’ll see him ride the Tour and target the Vuelta. Katusha as a whole, on the other hand, has a bit of a black eye. After a shamefully quiet cobbled season, they bring an extremely powerful Ardennes squad. They slipped a rider into the early break that gained 17 minutes, so could spend most of the day not chasing, but still: Danilo De Luca, Alexander Kolobnev, and Sergei Ivanov, what do you have to say for yourselves? For their sake, let’s hope Katusha pieces something together this weekend. They don’t quite need a miracle yet, but something’s broken.

5. Alexander Vinokourov finished 4th – clearly he’s on form and will be a threat to repeat his 2010 win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

6. Alberto Contador was near the front of the group in the middle of the Muur, but faded in the finale. This is, perhaps, a sign that he’s slowly building for the Giro and not peaking too soon. Does he know for sure that he won’t be riding the Tour? It seems so.

7. Samuel Sanchez deserves some credit for making up a good number of places toward the end of the Muur de Huuy. The Muur is a climb about timing – one can’t blame him for thinking that Gilbert went too hard and too early. Only Rodriguez followed Gilbert without then losing ground – everyone else who tried to match the acceleration reshuffled and lost places. Did Sanchez learn the lesson he’ll need to win this race in the next year or two?

8. A look at the top ten shows two OmegaPharma-Lottos, two Katushas, and two Euskatel riders. Clearly they had good reason for their work throughout the race – each team chose to throw two dangerous and well-protected riders at the Muur with the hopes of increasing their chances of a win. The losers who participated in this strategy were Rabobank, who did manage two top-15 placings with Robert Gesink and Paul Martens, and, despite their placings, Katusha – who, as stated before, still manage to emerge from 2nd place in Fleche Wallone with a black eye.

9. A few youngsters came out of the woodwork with impressive finishes, including RadioShack’s Ben Hermans, who has finished 12th, 10th, and 18th in Brabantse Pijl, Amstel Gold, and Fleche Wallone this week.

10. Allow me to blatantly paraphrase Gage & De Soto’s tweet: The Muur de Huy is a few percent flatter after that attack by Gilbert. And so, with that, we must ask: is there anything he can’t win? For races he’s clearly targeted – Milan-SanRemo, de Ronde, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, what will it take? More on that later this week, or after Liege-Bastogne-Liege. It’s a question worth returning to – his triple this past week provides ample fodder for speculation about his potential and his future career moves.

Let us know what’s on your mind after today’s Fleche Wallone. This Le Soir post-race interview with Gilbert is entitled, “Gilbert décoche une Flèche wallonne” – Gilbert shoots a Walloon Arrow, but “decoche” is quite close to “decroshe,” which means “to win” in French. And, in closing, please open a bottle of Chimay and toast an incredible winner.

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The Sticky Bidon – April 19, 2011

Posted on April 19, 2011 by

Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, April 19, 2011

Seen any cool links we missed? Share ’em in the comments below!

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2011 Fleche Wallonne – Preview

Posted on April 19, 2011 by
2010 Fleche Wallonne - Evans Wins

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Sunday’s thrilling Amstel Gold Race showed that unlike the cobbled gladiators, the hill warriors came to win, with strong teams that didn’t shy from controlling the race and chasing breaks. Despite being heavily marked, Philippe Gilbert and his OmegaPharma-Lotto team stepped up to the challenge and rode the perfect race to deliver Gilbert’s back-to-back win.

While Amstel, like Liege-Bastogne-Liege, is characterized by its constant undulating hills and valleys (plus-minus the obvious smell of booze on the climbs), Fleche Wallonne is a very unique race that is hard to predict. Yes, it is part of the Ardennes classics series. Yes, pocket-rockets excel in this race. Yes, it is nestled between Amstel Gold Race and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. But perhaps like de Scheldeprijs sandwiched position between de Ronde and Paris-Roubaix, Fleche Wallone is at best a step-sister of the two Sunday siblings. Initially intended to be a showcase race connecting the two ends of Wallonie, from Tournai to Liege, it started as a Saturday race prior to LBL. Many route changes and re-schedules later, it found its identity as a Wednesday race and as the race that goes up the Mur de Huy: a beast of a climb topping 26% grade on the inside line, averaging 9.3%, going for 1300 meters. Ladies and gentlemen, this is why only fools (or the strongest riders) take the inside line at 700 meters from the finish, with most riders preferring to take the much more reasonable 20% grade on the outside line. Not one to shy from showcasing their best climb, Fleche Wallone organizers make the race go through it not twice, but thrice.

Historically, very few riders have won Fleche Wallone and LBL back-to-back. Ferdi Kubler did the double twice, in 1951 and 1952, before the Mur de Huy, and when it was run the day before LBL. Then nobody could match up the two races until Argentin in 1991. More recently, we have seen Davide Rebellin in his Ardennes treble in 2004, and Alejandro Valverde in 2008.

What are the key ingredients to winning Fleche Wallone? Excepting Armstrong’s surprise win in 1995, the modern version has seen a rather large group at the finale. The race lacks the constantly lumpy profile of AGR and LBL, with a fast downhill towards the final ascent of the Mur de Huy that favors a re-grouping. The winner must know how to pace himself, with a winning burst at the end. Many pretenders have lost their cool too early, only to be overhauled in the last false flat. The absence of last year’s top and third finishers Cadel Evans and Alberto Contador is a bit disappointing. In their absense, who can win this year’s FW? We use a 5-hill rating system to look at the favorites:

5-hill Favorites:

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez comes into Fleche Wallone as the clear favorite. In recent years, he has been a constant presence in the drag up the Huy, and as it favors experience to guide a climber’s sense of timing, Rodriguez is due. He had an excellent showing in the finale of Amstel Gold, and despite the fact that the Cauberg is not sufficiently steep to favor his punchy sprint, still pulled in 2nd place. Midweek, with a strong team behind him that includes former winner Danilo Di Luca and sniper Alexandre Kolobnev, expect Rodriguez to mount a serious threat up the Huy. This year is his year.

4-hill Favorites:

Euskaltel-Euskadi has two interesting cards to play for Fleche Wallone: Igor Anton and Samuel Sanchez. After having Sanchez in the finale for years, Anton had a breakthrough Fleche Wallone last year and had a strong showing, even if it appeared he attacked too early and blew his chance. Between the two of them Euskaltel deserves a 4-hills rating and is likely to land a podium spot.  Saxo Bank’s Alberto Contador seems to have shed his legal problems behind and with Laurent Jalabert tipping him to be this year’s winner, deserves a mention here.  His exodus to Saxo brought with him many key helpers, netting him a strong team of supporters.

3-hill Favorites:

Another pocket rocket, Damiano Cunego has a fairly motivated Lampre team behind him, although it’s unsure if his form has overcome his recent illness. He did make a few marks in AGR, but appears to still be a step behind in the explosive department. Cunego seems to always find his second wind rather quickly, but his recent failures in following the first acceleration from his rivals have cost him his chances. A recent otitis does not help overcome this lack of top-end acceleration and new teammate Michele Scarponi is not on the start list. Thus Cunego’s otherwise 4-hill status nets him only 3-hills for Fleche Wallone.

Team Leopard-Trek usually brings a strong hilly classics contingent, even if a few good support riders moved elsewhere.  Andy Schleck appears in very good form, consistent with his ability to bring himself up to top speed very quickly with little racing.  Frank, on the other hand, seems to have faltered a bit despite his showing in Criterium International. Recent recruit Fabian Wegmann hasn’t show himself very much so far, but constant worker Jacob Fuglsang finished 4th in Amstel. Between the lot of them, they’re a 3-hill favorite, but consider that flexible with an upward trend if Andy can get another teammate or two at the front in the last 20 km.

An obvious crowd favorite is (relatively) local son Philippe Gilbert, hot off his wins in de Brabantse Pijl (aptly named la Fleche Brabanconne in French) and Amstel Gold. Despite a strong team, though, his characteristic is poorly matched to the unique challenge of Mur de Huy, where last year he finished 6th.  A strong Jurgen Van den Broeck may be the ticket to the team’s success, but the Fleche Wallone rewards experience on the slopes of Huy.

2-hill Favorites:

Rabobank had a decent showing at AGR, up to the foot of the Cauberg. It is surprising that Oscar Freire was on the contention up to that point, but let’s not forget that now they have the combination of Carlos Barredo and Luis Leon Sanchez. Barredo has a proven record at least as a super-domestique in the classics, and LL Sanchez can win a stage or two in multi-day races, be it short or long. With Robert Gesink usually in contention, they may have the problem of having too many chiefs and yet no winners for the hilliest classics.  Perhaps the team chemistry is still missing, or maybe they’re just waiting for the last piece to fall into place.

Last year’s 2nd place in AGR and 10th place in Fleche Wallone puts Ryder Hesjedal on the contenders list.  Will Garmin-Cervelo’s breakthrough spring season continue or will they lost their chances as stronger teams emerge and turn the chaos on the cobbles into well-controlled hillclimbs? Hesjedal did maintain contact all the way up to the steepest slopes, even if at times it appears the credit is due to his ability to control and maintain his tempo in the flatter parts of the climb. Tactical riding may turn him into a winner but I rate this as an outside chance unless there is significant chaos in the run-down to the foot of the final climb.

Chris Horner attacked in the early part of Huy last year but still managed to net a top-ten finish in reward for his do-or-die move. Despite his age, he has amazing resilience. A motivated Radio Shack team will give him good support, especially with Ben Hermans on form. However, he tends to lag behind a bit in the steepest slopes.

Astana’s Alexandre Vinokourov and Remi di Gregorio may be able to step up to the challenge, although my bet is with Vinokourov.  He has not had a strong record on the Huy. However, his teeth-gritting attacks and punchy climbing make him a constant threat.

1-hill Favorites:

What about outside contenders such as one of the more aggressive French riders?  Thomas Voekler has had an excellent start of season up to the Ronde. Since he peaks only about once a year, has he missed his peak? It seems that his form has been at least non-increasing lately. Sylvain Chavanel on the other hand, was clearly hungry for more in the Ronde, and his recent showing in Paris-Roubaix shows he may have some legs left. It is not clear if his team is very strong for the hilly classics, but for sure they are eager to get more results. They are perhaps the only team that can win Gent-Wevelgem with apparent ease and still be seen as a failure. I personally think that Liquigas’ Peter Sagan can be a very strong contender for the hilly classics, if not for Liquigas’ obsession with the cobbled classics. Simon Gerrans had an excellent showing in Amstel Gold, as did Sky as a team. We’ll see if this will translate into a good result on the Huy.

Who do you think will win on the Huy? Share your thoughts below.

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The Sticky Bidon – April 18, 2011

Posted on April 18, 2011 by

2010 Tour de France - Hesjedal in Stage 17

Fotoreporter Sirotti


Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, April 18, 2011

Seen any cool links we missed? Share ’em in the comments below!

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Monday Musette: Amstel Gold Wrap-Up

Posted on April 18, 2011 by

Fotoreporter Sirotti

Welcome to today’s Monday Musette, where we wrap-up this weekend’s highlight race, the Amstel Gold, and use riders’ and teams’ performances in the race to speculate wildly about the rest of the Ardennes classics as the race season shifts from the pavé to the hills.

1. Phillipe Gilbert! What an incredible rider he is: in order to win his second consecutive Amstel win, he chased Andy Schleck’s solo move in the final 10 kilometers, lead himself out, and sprinted for a very dominant win. It was his race to lose, but he sealed the deal to mark a very successful start to the Ardennes races, as his win in Amstel came just a few days after his win at Brabantse Pijl.

If you thought that he would have a hard time pulling it off, you weren’t alone. It looked as though Gilbert may have been burning too many matches. He is a smart rider, but he tends more toward the “headbanger” school of thought than “race like you have one bullet in your gun.” Indeed, this may have cost him Milan San Remo, as he was doing a lot of work on the Poggio to keep attackers close before joining the winning move. It worked out for him at Amstel, though – possibly because he simply has the most power on a power climb.

2. Joaquin Rodriguez – is this guy ever constantly awesome, or what? Katusha’s Rodriguez/Kolobnev combination makes a powerful one-two punch that can redeem Katusha from their dismal cobbled campaign. Rodriguez knows how he and Gilbert match up – see point 1 about power climbs – but also knows that the tables can be turned: “On Wednesday [at Flèche Wallonne], though, the roles are turned around and I’ll be the favourite.” Second place at Amstel is a fine start to the week, but Rodriguez ought to be careful – he seems to get more big 2nd places than big wins.

3. If Andy Schleck could corner like his teammate Cancellara, would he have won? He made his escape at the same place where his brother Frank attacked to win the ’06 Amstel, and gained 10 seconds or so in front of the dozen pursuers. More capable cornering could have gained him a few more in the run-in to the finish in the final few kilometers, and though it may not have been enough, it’s a reminder that at the end of 260k, races can come down to very small variables.

4. Oscar Freire impressed by being the “sprinter” in an increasingly select group of attackers. Indeed, Rabobank was in full force at the front of the race in the last 20k, with Freire, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Robert Gesink near the front. They didn’t convert their capable teamwork to a win this time, but as the Ardennes races are about team control and tactics, their performance at Amstel is encouraging for the rest of their week.

5. Samuel Sanchez didn’t make the selection; nor did Damiano Cunego, Sylvain Chavanel (though he came through in the second group – is he just going to kick ass clear into the summer, or what?), Alexander Vinokourov, or Jurgen Van Den Brouck. Keep an eye on these guys being out for revenge at Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

6. Vacansoleil, OmegaPharma-Lotto, and Katusha each did a good job getting multiple riders into the final move; Vacansoleil had Bjorn Leukemans and Johnny Hoogerland in front with Stijn Devolder behind as an ace in the hole, Katusha had the Rodriguez/Kolobnev threat pair, and OmegaPharma-Lotto burnt Jelle Vanendert’s matches before opening Gilbert’s book. Leopard-Trek also had numbers, with Andy and Jacob Fuglsang up front while Fabian Cancellara and Frank Schleck were only removed from the action due to an unfortunate mechanical and tumble. One can’t help but wonder if using all four of them at the front could have topped Gilbert.

7. Liquigas, where were you? Same goes for Garmin-Cervelo. The answer the latter was that they were present until Joaquim Rodriguez lit the fireworks with 30k to go, and then they joined Euskatel as casualties of the race.

8. RadioShack’s Ben Hermans finished 9th – an impressive result that follows his 12th at last week’s Brabantse Pijl.

9. To return to Gilbert – he’s a locked-on favorite for any race that finishes with a powerclimb, and he’s a clear contender for other major races like Milan-San Remo and de Ronde. But, though he can dispatch his rivals in a race like Amstel with apparent ease, he struggles in some other races – his attacks are shut down and courses either prove too selective or not selective enough for him to succeed. Thus, we can’t help but ask the question – what will it take for him to win Milan-San Remo or de Ronde? As well as that question’s corollary: what would it have taken to beat Gilbert at Amstel?

The answer lies in some alchemy of teamwork. Though Gilbert often has capable domestiques (see, for example, Greipel’s hard work leading up to the Poggio to keep the FDJ tag-team attack within reach during Milan-San Remo), maybe OmegaPharma-Lotto needs another powerful threat to serve as a foil for Gilbert and prevent him from being too closely marked. Meanwhile to be beaten in a race like Amstel, maybe Leopard-Trek would indeed have needed the four-man counterpunch factory of Andy, Frank, Fabian, and Jacob. Personally, I hope that Gilbert figures out how to win more Monuments before other people learn how to beat him in the consolation prize races that populate his scoresheet.

That’s all for today’s Monday Musette. Who impressed you during Amstel Gold, and what does that say about the upcoming Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege? Share your thoughts below, and stay tuned for our Fleche Wallone preview.

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2011 Amstel Gold Race – Preview

Posted on April 15, 2011 by

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

Sunday’s Amstel Gold Race officially opens the final week of the Spring Classics with 260 kilometers and 32 smooth, but absurdly steep climbs. The perfect transition from the cobbles to the Ardennes, Amstel offers a last chance for those who missed-out in Flanders and Roubaix, and a first opportunity for those who spent the last two weeks honing their climbing form in France and Spain.

Here’s a six-pack of favorites for Sunday’s race, along with a few other riders to watch:

1. Philippe Gilbert returns to the Amstel Gold Race well-prepared to defend his title from 2010. His win in Wednesday’s Brabantse Pijl leaves little room for guessing—the Belgian’s at the top of his game. Better still, Gilbert is supported here with a better roster than he had in Flanders including Jurgen Van den Broeck and Jan Bakelants. With and uphill acceleration few can match and a more than capable finishing sprint, Sunday is his race to lose.

2. Rabobank’s Robert Gesink has clearly entered 2011 on a mission to prove that he’s one of the five or ten best riders in the world. The Dutchman’s enjoyed a terrific start to the season with a win in the Tour of Oman and podium places in Tirreno and last week’s Vuelta al Pais Vasco—he’s clearly primed for a important classic win. And with Carlos Barredo, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Oscar Freire taking the line for Rabobank as well, other teams can’t afford to mark Gesink exclusively.

3. Leopard Trek’s Frank Schleck won the Amstel Gold Race in 2006, attacking ten kilometers from the line to take his first important victory. Schleck’s in top form this year—he won the Criterium International and rode at the front during Pais Vasco. And should Frank fail to shine Sunday, Leopard Trek has his younger brother Andy and Swiss star Fabian Cancellara at the ready. Cancellara’s an especially intriguing candidate—Sunday could be our first chance to see if Spartacus will truly contend for an Ardennes win in future years.

4. Ryder Hesjedal finished second in the Amstel Gold Race last year, a result that heralded the arrival of what was to be a breakout season for the Canadian. Hesjedal’s enjoyed a pain-free build-up to this year’s Ardennes Classics, finishing ninth in Pais Vasco and seventh in the Criterium International. An aggressive rider who might still be a bit underrated considering his track record of late, the North American with a Dutch last name certainly has the skills—and team—necessary to take the biggest win of his career.

5. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego dropped-out of Pais Vasco but then won Sunday’s Giro dell’Appennino—an interesting turn of events for a rider many thought was on the verge of a renaissance after an auspicious start to the season. The Little Prince won Amstel in 2008—the only Spring Classic on his resume. After being shut-out—again—in the cobbled classics, the tifosi are clamoring for a win in one of the next three races. Should Cunego and his compatriots stumble, it will be the nation’s second consecutive year without a major spring victory.

6. Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez won the Gran Premio Miguel Indurain two weeks ago—his only victory thus far this season. That said, despite the lack of important wins, Sanchez is still one of the top-ranked riders in the world thanks to impressive finishes in Paris-Nice and Pais Vasco. A rider with a reputation for being more of bridesmaid than a bride, this week will be Sanchez’s latest opportunity to prove his doubters wrong.

Aside from this six-pack of favorites, several outsiders look ready to spoil the party. Among them, Ronde heroes Nick Nuyens and Sylvain Chavanel come to mind, as does Vacansoleil’s trio of Bjorn Leukemans, Stijn Devolder, and Thomas de Gendt. BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet and Liquigas’ Peter Sagan deserve attention, as do Katusha’s Danilo Di Luca, Alexandre Kolobnev, and Joaquin Rodriguez.

And last but not least, one can never ignore Astana’s Alexandre Vinokourov—the veteran’s always a good bet for a win in the hillier classics.

As for my prediction, Gilbert will do his best to repeat his victory, but I see him burning a few too many matches in the final 20 kilometers. Nick Nuyens has shown over the past few weeks that he knows how to survive a hard race and time his move perfectly. And then there’s Ryder Hesjedal. He should be able to follow wheels most of the race, letting the other more-favored teams do the bulk of the work. He’ll time his sprint perfectly, but in the end it won’t be enough to defeat the Belgian Ronde-winner. Stijn Devolder will do just enough to guarantee himself a spot on the podium—after a race spent yo-yoing between the back and the front.

Amstel Gold Race: 1. Nuyens; 2. Hesjedal; 3. Devolder.

What about you? Who’s your best to take the youngest Spring Classic?

Share your comments and picks below.

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