Weekend Preview – The Giro’s Big Finale

Posted on May 28, 2010 by

For a few minutes today, it looked as if David Arroyo just might have retained his maglia rosa as the leader of the 2010 Giro d’Italia. After the descent of the Mortirolo, he sat less than a minute behind a 3-man breakaway containing Ivan Basso, Vincenzo Nibali, and Michele Scarponi. Unfortunately, the wheels fell off for the Spaniard on the final ascent to Aprica; he lost over three minutes to the leading trio—and the maglia rosa.

The race now heads into its final weekend with Ivan Basso as overall leader. Arroyo sits second and Nibali third, at 0:51 and 2:30 respectively. Only Scarponi remains within shouting distance of the podium, 2:49 behind Basso. Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre, and Alexandre Vinokourov all sit over 4-minutes from the lead.

Saturday’s stage appears to be the hardest of this year’s race—and quite possibly one of the hardest days of racing this season. The riders face 5 categorized climbs during a 178-kilometer day that ends with a 12-kilomter climb up the Passo Tonale—the 5th summit finish the race has seen this week. But the Tonale’s not the worst part of Saturday’s stage; the infamous Gavia is the penultimate climb of the day—and the highest point of this year’s race.

Liquigas did itself a favor by taking the pink jersey today, giving themselves the chance to ride defensively Saturday. They don’t need to attack; they must only control the race, preventing dangerous escapes from threatening Basso’s lead. At this point, Arroyo is probably more concerned with maintaining his spot on the podium than re-taking the maglia rosa.

Look for the real race tomorrow to take place between Scarponi and Arroyo. Arroyo looked quite cooked by the end of Friday’s Stage 19. If Scarponi wants a spot on the final podium he has a better chance of dislodging Arroyo than Nibali—look for him to try and isolate Arroyo on the Gavia, possibly taking Nibali and Basso with him to replicate the finish we saw today.

There’s a better chance we’ll see a breakaway distance itself early with perhaps a rider or two from the day’s early move holding-on for the win. Look for someone like Cunego, Garzelli, or Samoliau to be given a bit of latitude to take the last road stage of the race.

As for Sunday, the 15-kilometer time trial around Verona shouldn’t reveal too many surprises. Richie Porte has enjoyed a fantastic Giro and could cap it with a win. Marco Pinotti would also love to end his race with a stage win in front of his home crowd. Nibali might use the stage to vault himself into second—especially if Arroyo loses more time Saturday. And don’t forget Vino and Evans; if they’re within seconds of a higher GC-placing, look for them post impressive rides—if they have anything left after Saturday, that is.

All in all, while Friday stole a bit of the show, the final two days will prove to be anything but meaningless. Here’s how I see things turning-out:

1st Place: Ivan Basso
2nd Place: Vincenzo Nibali
3rd Place: Michele Scarponi

Enjoy the weekend—and share your picks below.

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Weekend Preview – The Giro Hits the Mountains and the ATOC Heads to Hollywood

Posted on May 21, 2010 by

With mountain action from Italy and the final two days of the 2010 Amgen Tour of California, this weekend looks to be the most exciting since April.  Let’s take a look at what’s in store:

1.  The Giro was turned on its head Wednesday when a large group of riders broke away from the main field to finish several minutes ahead of the peloton.  About 40 riders benefitted from large chunks of time, with Carlos Sastre and Bradley Wiggins regaining all the time they lost earlier in the race—and then some.  It’s hard to imagine how Astana, BMC, and Liquigas could have allowed such a large group of riders to accrue such huge amounts of time; as a result, we head to the weekend with the “real” GC looking like this:

1.     David Arroyo (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne             
2.     Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Milram  +3:52        
3.     Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team  +5:27        
4.     Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team  +6:32        
5.     Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana  +8:06        
6.     Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Team Katusha  +8:24        
7.     Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team  +9:28        
8.     Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo  +9:36        
9.     Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Doimo  +9:57        
10.     Stefano Garzelli (Ita) Acqua & Sapone  +10:50        
11.     Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre-Farnese Vini  +11:11        
12.     Michele Scarponi (Ita) Androni Giocattoli  +11:12    

Things are about to get serious this weekend as the race heads to the mountains—look for changes.  Of the eight remaining stages in this year’s Giro, five of them end with a summit finish.  While tomorrow’s Stage 14 from Ferrara to Asolo doesn’t end with a climb, it might as well as the riders tackle the Monte Grappa, an 18-kilometer climb averaging 9%.  With the summit a mere 40-kilometers from the finish line, the win will likely emerge from a breakaway, someone able to handle the long, technical descent safely and smoothly.  While the overall favorites might choose to rest their legs for Sunday, there still should be a selection causing at least one top rider to lose time—the Monte Grappa’s just that hard.  This will be the make-or-break day for a man like Bradley Wiggins.  We’ll know how seriously he’s taking final week of the race by how he well he fares Saturday.

As for Sunday, well, that’s when things really get ugly—at least for the riders.  For fans, it should be an exciting day as the riders tackle 3 categorized climbs before a summit finish atop the infamous Monte Zoncolan, a long, steep climb that should be packed with fans.  Monday’s rest day assures that the big hitters will race all-out to assert themselves in the quest for the final maglia rosa—they’ll have a day recover from whatever efforts ensue.  Likewise, a bad day Sunday might spell the end of several contenders’ hopes.

Look for Carlos Sastre to use the Zoncolan to begin punishing the rest for their foolish mistake on Wednesday—this stage is tailor-made for a rider with his talents.  While Sastre looks to be the rider best positioned to take control of the race, Liquigas is clearly the best team.  Vincenzo Nibali and Ivan Basso are hitting their top form at just the right time, making them a formidable duo with which the rest must contend.  On the flipside, Cadel Evans and Alexander Vinokourov are doing everything they can just to hold it together, with both having lost significant portions of their teams (and sanity?) over the past several days.  Evans might be a used to riding with less than desirable support—he’s done it for years; but Vino might find the prospect a bit too daunting.  No matter the weekend winners, by Sunday night we should have a much clearer picture of who might be wearing the pink jersey one week later.

2.  As for the Amgen Tour of California, the race concludes this weekend with 34-kilometer individual time trial around Los Angeles and a 134-kilometer circuit race in Thousand Oaks.  Both days should prove pivotal to the determination the overall winner—the time trial especially.  We’ll have a better sense of the main contenders following today’s stage to Big Bear, but I think it’s safe to say we’re looking at a 3-horse race between Michael Rogers, Dave Zabriskie, and Levi Leipheimer.  Jens Voigt and Peter Sagan deserve some consideration, but they should lose time later this afternoon on the way to Big Bear. 

The final two stages should be pretty exciting, as Rogers, Zabriskie, and Leipheimer are evenly matched in an ITT.  If they finish close to one another Saturday—which is likely—look for Sunday’s circuit race to be a battle all the way to the line.  Assuming no changes in the top-3 Friday, I see Rogers taking the overall win.  His team is stronger and he’s really the only rider capable of beating Levi and Dave Z. against the clock—aside from a certain Swiss rider on Team Saxo Bank.

All in all, it looks like we’re in for an exciting weekend—you can start your days in Italy, and end them in California (should Versus decide to show the entire stages). 

Who are your picks for the weekend?  Share them below—and have a great weekend?

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Weekend Preview РThe Dauphin̩ and the Tour of Switzerland

Posted on June 11, 2010 by

The Criterium du Dauphiné wraps-up this weekend with two “legendary” stages in the Alps. Saturday’s the most difficult of the two, taking the riders over 3 categorized climbs—including the hors categorie Col du Glandon—before finishing atop the infamous Alpe-d’Huez. The stage should finalize the top of the general classification. If it doesn’t, Sunday offers an interesting parcours as well, ending with 5 laps in Sallanches—site of the 1980 World Championships and arguably one of the toughest courses in World Championship history. If small gaps remain following Saturday’s slug-fest, look for aggressive action Sunday.
Radio Shack’s Janez Brajkovic sits comfortably atop the GC, with a 1:41 lead over his main rival, Alberto Contador. Denis Menchov and Jurgen Vandenbroeck are riding well at the moment; they lurk dangerously close at 2:55 and 3:06 respectively. While it appears unlikely these two will unseat the men from Radio Shack and Astana, their performances deserve noting in advance of the Tour de France. Other impressive rides have been put in by Tejay Van Garderen—he sits in second-place at 1:15—and Reine Taaramae—he’s in tenth-place at 3:28.

It’s looking like Brajkovic and his team have what it takes to hold Contador at bay—tomorrow’s finale should provide some exciting fireworks as the men within shouting distance take their shots. The day will be a good test for both teams—does Astana have what it takes to win when racing from behind?

Tomorrow also sees the start of the Tour of Switzerland—the other important Tour de France preparation event. If a start list is any indicator, the Tour de Suisse is overwhelmingly the preferred pre-Tour test. Several teams are bringing the bulk of their Tour rosters; only Contador, Menchov, Vandenbroeck, Evans, Basso, Nibali, and Wiggins won’t be taking part. A day longer than the Dauphiné, the TdS seems to have a slightly easier parcours with no major summit finishes and less time trialing than the Dauphiné. That said, this is the Tour of Switzerland we’re talking about—it’s certain to be intensely competitive.

Fabian Cancellara would love to defend his title from last year—doing it while wearing the jersey of Swiss national champion would be an added bonus. Saxo’s bringing the team he needs to do it, with both Schlecks and Jens Voigt lending firepower to the challenge. The TdS will also be our last chance to gauge Lance Armstrong’s fitness prior to the Tour de France. Is he really back on track—or does he still have work to do? We’ll know by next Sunday.

We’ll also get our first opportunity to see Tom Boonen, Mark Cavendish, and Thor Hushovd battle head-to-head this season (at least I think so). Oscar Freire’s coming too—giving us a terrific preview of some of the main contenders for this July’s green jersey.

Personally, I’m eager to see how well Christian Vande Velde has recovered from his crash in the Giro, as well as the extent to which young guns Roman Kreuziger and Robert Gesink will be contenders in next month’s Grand Boucle.

And my pick for the winner? I think Tony Martin takes it with a powerful time trial on the last day. Cancellara will be close, but he’ll have one tough day in the hills, giving Martin the gap he needs to take the win.

What about you? Who are your picks for the weekend’s events? What do you hope the race will reveal in advance of this year’s Tour?

Share your comments below.

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Weekend Preview – San Sebastian and Poland

Posted on July 29, 2011 by

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

The “second half” of the season gets underway this weekend, with Pro Tour races in Spain and Poland. For some, the weekend is the last bit of racing before a well-deserved post-Tour break; for others, it begins the final build-up to the Vuelta a Espana and the autumn classics.

Saturday’s Clasica San Sebastian will see several Tour de France stars attempting to close the month with a victory in Spain’s more important single-day race. A race traditionally won and lost in the final hour (the last of two trips over the Jaizkibel and Arkale come with 38 and 2.7-kilometers to go, respectively), look for the winner to be a rider who can climb, descend, and handle himself in a small group sprint.

The defending champion and Tour de France stage winner, Luis Leon Sanchez—now riding for Rabobank, tops the start list. Sanchez is a rider perfectly built for a race like la Clasica as he can climb with the best on the Jaizkibel, open gaps on the climb’s speedy descent, and handle himself tactically in the finale, traits he used last year to win the event. Riding with Rabobank, Sanchez also comes to the race supported by a strong team including 2009 Clasica-winner Carlos Barredo and 3-timre World Champion Oscar Freire.

Coincidentally, Sanchez’s toughest challenger shares a surname and the color orange, as Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez takes the line hoping to win his Basque team its first Clasica. After a top-10 finish, a stage win, and the polka dot jersey at the Tour de France, there’s little reason to doubt the Spaniard’s chances.

As for Movistar’s Jose Joaquin Rojas, the Spanish Champion also enjoyed a solid Tour de France, challenging for the green jersey despite failing to win a stage. La Clasica would be a terrific win for the young sprinter—if he can make it over the Jaizkibel with the lead group. And don’t forget Katusha’s Joaquin Rodriguez. He won two stages at the Dauphine in June, but took July off to prepare for the rest of the summer.

Belgium’s eyes will be watching Philippe Gilbert, a man who can’t seem to help himself from lighting-up every race he enters. At some point, Phil’s going to need a rest, but one would be foolish to discount the Omega Pharma-Lotto rider’s chances in a race with a short climb less than 3-kilometers from the line. A San Sebastian victory would add yet another win to what has already been a dream season for the new King of Belgium. And while you’re at it, keep your eyes on Gilbert’s teammate and Tour stage-winner, Jelle Vanendert, a rider who showed he knows how to handle himself in one-day classics this past April.

Belgium’s other important team will be relying on a Frenchman Saturday, as French Champion Sylvain Chavanel hopes Spain will treat him better than France did this past July. Fully-healed from his first week crashes at the Tour, Chavanel rode an aggressive third week, but came up empty in the end. His aggressive style makes him well-suited to a race like la Clasica—especially if other more-favored riders spend too much time marking one another. Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt is someone to watch as well; the Belgian displayed some incredible form during that last weekend of the Tour and is certainly unafraid to ride aggressively. The same can be said of BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, the most successful non-Tour rider of the month.

As for Garmin-Cervélo, Thor Hushovd’s a trendy pick following his two Tour stage wins—the logic being, if he can make it over the Aubisque he can make it over the Jaizkibel. That said, I think Ryder Hesjedal’s a better pick for Saturday. At HTC-HighRoad, Peter Velits warrants a mention, while Sky’s Rigoberto Uran should bounce back after a rough final week of the Tour. As for Leoprd Trek, while the Schlecks are indeed racing, I expect a busy week of post-Tour events will leave them too flat to contend Saturday.

Last but not least, there’s the curious case of Lampre’s Damiano Cunego, a rider who just can’t seem to find an identity right now. After finishing second in the Tour de Suisse and seventh at the Tour de France, the Little Prince might have forgotten that he’s better-suited to races such as San Sebastian—or is he? Perhaps Saturday will give us our answer.

In the end, as tempting as it is to pick Gilbert, I see a Spaniard making it four wins in a row for the host nation, with Samuel Sanchez getting Euskaltel its first win in the team’s “home” race. Cunego will take second, and Movistar’s Rui Costa will finish third.

Heading north—and east—the Tour of Poland starts Sunday, with a challenging parcours and seven days of racing that has atracted a talented list of men looking to build form for the rest of the season. A race usually dominated by sprinters but won by an all-rounder, this year’s event features the last two winners in Garmin-Cervelo’s Dan Martin and BMC’s Alessandro Ballan. Of the two, Martin’s the best bet for a repeat, as the “new and improved” course features some serious climbing in the latter half of the week.

Sprinters to watch include Garmin-Cervelo’s Heinrich Haussler, Quick-Step’s Tom Boonen (making his first post-Tour start), Katusha’s Filippo Pozzato (remember him?), Saxo Bank’s Juan Jose and Lucas Haedo, HTC-HighRoad’s John Degenkolb, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Adam Blythe, and Vacansoleil’s Romain Feillu. Look for these men to rule the day on Stages 1, 2, 3, and 7.

As for men capable of winning the race overall, Martin’s biggest challenges should come from Liquigas’ Vincenzo Nibali and Peter Sagan (perhaps the race’s truest all-rounder), Lampre’s Michele Scarponi, Katusha’s Danilo DiLuca, HTC-HighRoad’s Konstantin Sioutsou, Radio Shack’s Tiago Machado and Matt Busche, and Movstar’s Vasil Kiriyenka.

And don’t rule out the race’s home talent, as several teams bring Polish riders hoping to impress their home fans. Saxo Bank’s Jaroslva Marycz and Rafael Majka, Radio Shack’s Michael Kwiatkowski, Lampre’s Przemzslaw Niemiec, and Vacansoleil’s Michal Golas are the best bets for a stage upset, with Majka an outside bet for a high overall finish (he finished third in the Best Young Rider competition in May’s Tour of California).

In the end, while Garmin and Dan Martin might have the strongest team, Peter Sagan has the single best domestique in Vincenzo Nibali. Sagan showed in the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse that he’s able to handle himself when the road goes up—I expect him to win at least two stages and the overall in Poland.

Share your picks and comments below.

 

 

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Weekend Preview – Poland, Denmark, & Spain

Posted on August 5, 2011 by

Photo Courtesy of Garmin-Cervélo

This weekend, three of August’s most important stage races wrap-up in Poland, Denmark, and Spain. Here’s a quick run-down what’s going on:

1. Last week, I predicted that Peter Sagan would win two stages and the overall at the Tour of Poland. Until today, the Slovakian Champion looked poised to fulfill that prediction, with two stage victories and the leaders jersey. On a stage that resembled an EKG due to the 15 climbs encountered on the 207.7 km stage, Sagan found himself bettered by last year’s winner Dan Martin of Garmin-Cervélo, finishing 13 seconds behind and ceding the yellow jersey. With time bonuses available for the first three finishers in tomorrow’s stage, Garmin-Cervélo will be looking to control the race, as either Sagan or Vacansoleil’s Marco Marcato could take the race with a top-3 finish. Given Sagan’s record, I wouldn’t bet against him podium’ing the stage and taking the overall win.

2. Meanwhile, the Tour of Denmark concludes Sunday with after three stages in two days. Today’s finish in Vejle was the “queen” stage of the event, with three finishing circuits that included a steep, Flanders-like climb with pitches of 21%. Jakob Fuglsang took the win for Leopard-Trek but was unable to take the overall lead. Instead, Team Sky’s Simon Gerrans (remember him?) is the race leader heading into tomorrow’s 2-stage program. The morning’s 111-kilometer Stage 5 is unlikely to change the GC as the sprinters’ teams will look to rule the day.

Instead, look for the real shake-ups to occur during the afternoon’s 13.8-kilometer time trial in Helsingor, the setting of Shakespeare’s Hamlet. This crucial test should be enough to determine if Fuglsang’s fourth Tour of Denmark victory is to be or not to be. (Sorry, I couldn’t resist.)

3. Last but not least, the Tour of Burgos wraps-up in Spain. Burgos has thus far offered a mini-preview of many of the riders we can expect to see in top fitness at the Vuelta later this month, led by Katusha’s Jose Joaquin Rodriguez—the Stage 2 winner and current race leader. While Saturday’s course shouldn’t cause too many shake-ups, Sunday’s features five categorized climbs including the final ascent to the finish at Lagunas de Neila. Defending champion Samuel Sanchez sits 21 seconds behind Rodriguez after his Euskaltel team failed to hold its own in today’s 11.6-kilometer TTT. My guess is that’s enough of a cushion for Rodriguez to take the win. Other riders to watch include Denis Menchov (remember him?) and Igor Anton at :36 and :39 respectively.

That’s it for us—what will you be watching this weekend?

Share your comments below.

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Weekend Preview – Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Posted on March 12, 2010 by

This weekend’s main festivities take place in France and Italy with the conclusion of Paris-Nice and the continuation of Tirreno-Adriatico. So far, the racing’s gone more or less as expected in both events: the Spanish are ruling the Race to the Sun and sprinters and breakaways have traded punches in Tirreno.

The current GC in Paris-Nice holds few surprises. Thanks to his peloton-shattering attack on La Croix Neuve in Thursday’s Stage 4 to Mende, the Astana rider leads his compatriot, Alejandro Valverde, by 20 seconds and Liquigas’ Roman Kreuziger by 25. Valverde’s teammate and defending Paris-Nice champion, Luis Leon Sanchez, sits in 4th with Euskaltel’s Samuel Sanchez tucked just behind in 5th. While seemingly indomitable, Contador’s lead is anything but assured. A 20-second deficit is not much, especially when the task of overcoming it lies in the capable hands of Valverde. With Leon Sanchez close to the lead as well, Caisse d’Epargne possesses a numerical advantage over the other favorites; they need to double-team Contador, subjecting him and his relatively weaker Astana team to a constant series of attacks. Throw Roman Kreuziger and Samuel Sanchez into the mix, and Contador’s lead begins to look even shakier—if they all ride aggressively.

Aside from the battle for GC supremacy, Paris-Nice has proven to be the coming-out party for Peter Sagan, Liquigas’ young (he’s 19!) superstar. Pavé’s been talking about Sagan as early as the Tour Down Under, where he impressed the likes of one Mr. Armstrong with several strong performances. With two stage wins this week, he seems to be this year’s revelation—a la Heinrich Haussler and Edvald Boassen Hagen.

And speaking of Haussler, he dropped-out of the race midway through Stage 4—his knee’s still bothering him, apparently. One hopes he can recover in time to do battle in Milan-San Remo and the cobbled classics, the races where he announced his stardom last year.

As for the final two stages, tomorrow’s Stage 6 features 8 categorized climbs including the 1st Category Col de Vence—although its summit lies about 35 kilometers from the uphill finish in Tourettes-sur-Loup. This will be the first chance for Contador’s challengers to earn back some time. Sunday’s final stage features three 1st Category ascents: the Col de la Porte, La Tarbie, and the Col d’Eze. Paris-Nice has been decided on the last day in the past—this year might provide a similar finale.

As for Tirreno-Adriatico, we expected a clash between breakaways, sprints, and the weather. So far, all has progressed as expected with a breakaway succeeding in Stage 1—Milram got another win from Linus Gerdemann—and sprinters finding success in Stages 2 and 3 with Tom Boonen and Daniele Bennati taking the victories. As for the overall, Bennati holds the lead by a mere 4 seconds over Gerdemann and Boonen.

Tomorrow’s stage might produce an exciting arrivo—the last 8 kilometers are quite difficult, with two ascents containing pitches over 15%. Look for a strongman to take the win, possibly a rider like Philippe Gilbert or Filippo Pozzato. Cadel Evans lurks back in 9th-place on GC; a strong finish from him could put BMC atop the podium and into an overall leader’s jersey for the first time this season. Sunday’s Stage 5 offers an interesting finish as well. The line comes 1km after a short, but sharp climb with an average gradient of 15% (it’s steepest section is 20%). This might be an even better day for the men we’ve already mentioned—if their teams can set them up well coming into final 2000 meters.

It looks like we’ll have some tough choices to make Saturday and Sunday with several options for live viewing. Overall, it will be an exciting 2 days of racing, with almost of the favorites ready to shine.

And what about you? What do you expect to see happen this weekend? Share your comments below.

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