2011 Tour de France Preview – Introduction

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After several years of writing Team-By-Team Tour de France previews, I want to do something different this year, as many of them tend to sound the same from one year to the next and—in many cases—from one team to the next. For example, Quick-Step’s team preview from last year’s Tour de France might very much resemble this year’s save for the addition of Tom Boonen to the roster and a mention Sylvain Chavanel’s 2010 exploits in his absence. The same might be said of the French teams in this year’s race. Frankly, I’ve grown tired of writing “_____________________ comes to the Tour with a talented group of opportunists, hunting for stage wins and exposure perhaps securing it’s title sponsor for another season or two.”

So this year, Pavé will take a different approach to previewing the riders and teams to watch at this year’s Grand Boucle by forecasting each nation’s chances. After all, years ago (1968 was the last) the Tour de France was an event run with national teams competing against one another for the biggest prizes. And while trade teams and corporate sponsors have changed the landscape significantly, fans still largely root for their compatriots. And just to thorough, we’ll still take a look at each team, only we’ll do it statistically in an attempt to evoke what we think of when we remember the backs of the baseball cards we used to collect when we were kids.

One brief disclaimer: like every year, Tour de France rosters are likely to change right up until the last minute as teams try to find the best mix of healthy, rested, and motivated riders. We don’t have the luxury of waiting until the last minute to publish our preview, so forgive us for the occasional oversight due to last-minute roster additions and subtractions. Feel free to keep everyone up to date via the comments section of each post.

As always, thanks for reading—look for more to follow soon!

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The Sticky Bidon – June 24, 2011

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Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, June 24, 2011

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Road Nationals Preview

2010 Tour de France - Stage 20 - T. Voeckler

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With the Tour de France bearing down on us, riders across the world are flying to their home countries for their respective National Championships, hoping to wear their country’s colors when La Grande Boucle begins on July 2nd. Here’s a quick run-down of who the Pavé staff will have their eyes on this weekend.

France – With the possibility that the French are on the verge of a cycling Renaissance, many are watching French teams for the Tour. For this weekend’s National Championships, Thomas Voeckler looks to continue his reign of terror – he’s spent all year relentlessly Merckxing the French countryside. If anybody can challenge him, it might be Anthony Charteau, who displayed some fine form at the Route du Sud (you know – that other Tour prep event) – if he’s not working with or for his trade teammate Voeckler. It could be Sylvain Chavanel, too – though he’s been quiet since an impressive Spring Classics campaign, he’s hard to rule out.

Belgium might have the most interesting National Championships. In addition to some ongoing drama (or at least uncertainty) about the future of its top teams and its star riders, it’s got a host of people capable of taking the National Champ jersey from the shoulders of the mercurial Stijn Devolder, who is unlikely to keep either his road or TT champion’s jersey. Devolder’s won the road race two years in a row, but has been newsworthy this year only for getting dropped. Belgium’s race has a flat parcours – can Tom “Have I Ever Liked Sprinting” Boonen overcome Gert Steegmans’ sprint? If the race finishes in a small group Greg Van Avermaet – who took 2nd in the Tour of Belgium to complement a spring full of top tens in races like Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Milan-San Remo, and the Montepaschi Strade Bianchi – is likely to be there. Mister April, Phillipe Gilbert, is hard to rule out even when a race doesn’t look hard enough to suit his abilities, and Kenny Van Hummel, Bjorn Leukemans and Jens Keukeleire may be gunning for the win, too.

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Italy has a host of riders who may take Paolo Bettini’s crown as the next Italian one-day champion. Damiano Cunego looks ready to win this one after a four-second loss of the Tour de Suisse to Levi Leipheimer. It won’t be a cakewalk, though, with an array of challengers including the young Giro stage-winner Diego Ulissi, defending National Champion Giovanni Visconti, and Giro third-placer and one-day threat Vicenzo Nibali. I’d look to winner of Milan-San Remo’s oft overlooked “Gutsiest Move Ever” category, Micheli Scarponi, to challenge, if he weren’t sitting out with Ivan Basso. Either way, expect the Italian championships to be a knock-down, drag-out, slugfest. Pippo Pozzato needs to win to justify his salary – we expect him to disappoint once again.

Spain – Alberto Contador is riding the time trial and road race to check his form prior to the Tour de France after a season with little racing. Samuel Sanchez is a capable challenger in the road race, and those grumbling about Contador’s presence in the race are likely to be rooting for a Sanchez upset.

Holland – Last year, Nikki Terpstra broke a four-year Rabobank stranglehold on the Dutch Nattychamps. He threatens to repeat, but he’ll have to contend with Robert Gesink, Sebastien Langeveld, Lars Boom and Johnny Hoogerland. Stef Clement has already stomped the TT, but on the open road will be hard pressed to double up.

Luxembourg – The Schlecks are riding Lux’s National Championships – perhaps, with the Tour de France starting any day now, they’ll finally show some glimmers of form, and one of them will get to put the stripes on that otherwise desolate Leopard-Trek jersey.

Russia – We’re rooting for Sergei Ivanov to show some form ahead of the Tour – in hopes to see something akin to his win in the 2009 Tour’s Stage 14 (otherwise remembered as the Hincapie, Cavendish, Hushovd Stage de Drama). If he takes it, beleagured Katusha DS Andre Tchmil may just fire off a few Kalashikov rounds in celebration of a long-awaited victory.

Norway – We were going to write about Thor Hushovd and Edvald Boasson Hagen being the two prominent Norweigian competitors, until Boasson Hagen came down with a case of shingles.

Tony Martin Wins Final ITT in Tour de Suisse

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Germany – Andre Greipel, Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Cav-hating sprinter, will be going head to head with Tony Martin, HTC’s young time trialing and stage-race prodigy. Look for one of those two to pull on Germany’s champion jersey. Martin will surely be motivated after losing his Time Trial title to Bert Grabsch, and with Martin’s focus on the Tour, it’s likely that he’s firing on many if not all cylinders.

Switzerland – Fabian Cancellara looks out of place in anything but a Swiss champion’s jersey, but Michael Albasini and Martin Elmiger may challenge the Swiss road race. Since Martin Kohler won the Time Trial, Cancellara must not have been in attendance, which suggests that he might not race the road race – therefore it’s anyone’s game.

Great Britain – Brad Wiggins, coming off a victory in the Dauphine and hoping to silence skeptics with a strong 2011 Tour de France, is a safe bet for the championship, but don’t rule out David Millar, who might take Wiggins down a pre-Tour peg or two.

Ireland‘s championship race in 2010 came down to a mano-a-mano duel between Matt Brammeir and Nicholas Roche, with Brammeir taking the win. Even money says it comes down to those two again, though last year’s bronze medalist Dan Martin is in fine form, too.

Who will have your attention this weekend?

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The Sticky Bidon – June 23, 2011

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Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, June 23, 2011

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Boonen to Quick-Step; Is Gilbert Next?

Fotoreporter Sirotti

 

With yesterday’s annoucement that Tom Boonen signed a 2-year contract extension with Quick Step, the next logical question surrounds whether or not Omega Pharma-Lotto’s Philippe Gilbert will join him. Boonen seems to have decided to ease any possible pressure heading into the Tour de France by signing now, while Gilbert is delaying his announcement until after the Tour de France–possibly hoping a stage win or two and some time in the yellow jersey will drive up his asking price.

Gilbert has already mentioned Quick-Step as one of the 5 finalists for his services for the next three years. Does the Boonen signing make that more impossible? Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders are the only shared targets for the Belgian superstars–is that enough to drive Gilbert elsewhere?

Share your comments below.

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The Sticky Bidon – June 22, 2011

Interesting cycling items from across the Internet, June 22, 2011

Seen any cool links we missed? Share ’em in the comments below!

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